PowerSwitch

It doesn't take that much to start a wave of panic buying (usually food) at shops and supermarkets; as I understand it there is lots of well known psychological science behind such behaviour.

Taking a previous Uk incident as an example:
http://www.ocipep.gc.ca/opsprods/other/IA05-001_e.asp

The second factor influencing shortages was increased demand and panic buying. The uncertainty of how long the fuel protests would disrupt food supplies caused consumers to alter their normal purchasing behaviour and attempt to acquire more goods than usual. The grocery chain Spar noted that its food sales had increased by 300 percent. The sight of empty shelves triggered some consumers to stockpile goods in sufficient volumes to endure a prolonged food supply shortage. Hence, by September 13 panic buying had commenced across Britain, some shops were bare of bread and milk, and a number of supermarkets began rationing food purchases (29).

In this case some increased demand for foodstuffs outpaced the supermarket delivery-planning, creating empty shelves, which triggered further and more widespread panic-buying.

I think it would take very little disruption to people norms for such a scenario to arise again.

Regulars to these forums will be well aware of the myrid events that could be a catalyst for such disruption.

What should the savy peak oiler do about it?

My suggestion is this:
1) You monitor news outlets closely for the signs that would trigger unease in the general public - say, for example, a few petrol stations closed with "no petrol" signs backing a story about supply problems (the deeper details are less important, this is the gernal public we are talking about)
2) You have planned your own pre-panic-buying shopping trip
3) You go to the supermarket outside regular hours, preferably at night (many supermarkets open 24hrs)
4) You buy a bigger-than-usual "big" shop, including things that make sense for a period of instability (say tinned foods)

Exactly what you buy is down to your personal planning and likely ties in with other plans you have made similar to these http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/in ... &Itemid=49

Your first thought could well be "but THIS is panic-buying!" and you'd largely be right ! In fact what you are doing is trying to pre-empt the kind of disruption food panic buying causes and moving quicker than the rest of the country.

By keeping a close eye on popular news outlets and being prepared to go shopping in teh middle of night you stand a good chance of beating the start of a buying-wave. Most of the public switch off the telly and go to bed and forget about it, and my hunch is that a lot of panic buying happens late in the day when people have talked about it, heard other people saying "the shelves are bare" and have watched the news etc.

This kind of plan has very little downside - the worst that is likely to happen is that you went shopping in the middle of the night and bought twice as many tins of beans as you need for this week. But they'll hardly go to waste will they??

Like so many things PO-related, you have to try and look after you and yours first before thinking about the rest of the country, sad tho that is

What do people think?

Absolute certainty that this will occur and whatsmore I'll be near the top of the queue.

My plan is to visit Macro with 2 cars and buy cases of tinned food. In fact now that I think about it, I need to make a PO shopping list. A list of what I need to buy when panic is about to hit!

I see this as being the easily obtained food stock to get over the initial panic. Hopefully once the initial panic subsides, supermarkets will manage to re-stock, but even then it is likely they will have difficulty keeping shelves from going empty. It will be critical to keep an eye on the pulse and news in knowing how bad things are re liklihood of re-stocking. Of course as the media reports, the panic-buying will get worse and the media frenzy will increase - a vicious circle brought on by the media!

It would also be handy to have a list of out of the way shops, supermarkets, 24 hour garages that you could scour if certain things went into short supply - eg bread, milk etc. This sometimes occurs in N Ireland at holiday times as people stock up for a period.

Come to think of it I think I will need more than one trip to Makro!!

Don't be so ridiculous. The Government will never let peak oil happen. so that's alright then.

In the meantime, we've installed our own 20,000 gallon water tank under our lawn, which we've dug up to grow spuds and sweet corn. We buy twice as many groceries every week and stash half in the cellar (i.e milk powder, soup powder and condoms - oh, also coco-pops and other essentials as a treat for those long after-the-peak winter nights!).

The above is actually more of a wish-list. Re. the supermarkets. Ween yourself off them. If you own a garden you know what to do. If not, wrangle an allotment and get your hands into that sacred soil. Go to farmers markets, Women's Institute markets, local health food shops, etc... Source your own foodchain. Get together with some mates and bulk buy from Suma foods etc, cutting costs in the process.

Warm regards,


Lychee

"Re. the supermarkets. Ween yourself off them."

What good advice! But what a tough one, when you actually start to think how you can do that.

It's easy to wean yourself off supermarkets - it just takes a bit longer to do the shopping.

Local grocers/markets or grow your own for veg - and much cheaper. Dairy, grains, dried fruit etc. etc. from health food shops.
Toiletries only appeared in supermarkets quite recently anyway, same with all the other crap they sell.
Weigh-inshops sell loads of stuff too - cereals, sweets etc. etc.
Tinned foods are a bit more difficult - they're very expensive in local shops - but other than that there's no need to visit a supermarket. We buy a small amount of tinned stuff from supermarkets and that's it.[/quote]

This reminds me of March this year, where snow brought parts of the south east to a stand-still (report).
My brother, who lives there told me how people were emptying the supermarket shelves.

People still panic bought, when it was March, and the south-east! Me and my brother had a bit of a laugh about it, but I sent him an article on the olduvai theory and said "It's good to have a heads-up on what your neighbours are like".

snow hope wrote:"Re. the supermarkets. Ween yourself off them."

What good advice! But what a tough one, when you actually start to think how you can do that.

I just decided about a year and a half ago after a Safeway shopping expedition one afternoon, "I'm not going to use a supermarket again". And I haven't - the hardest part is making the mental switch. Remember, people used to buy food and stuff before Tesco existed and will do so long after Tesco have gone. Supermarkets destroy local shops and local shops are what we are going to need post-PO so it helps if we can all do our bit to help them now.

When I used the word "supermarket" in my opening post I didn't mean it to specifically take on so much meaning!

Apart from 24hr opening, I could have (should have!) said "your local food supplier" instead.