PowerSwitch

I have mentioned PO to 15 or 16 people, and I've STILL yet to make a convert, The reactions I've got have been denial or an immediate change of subject.

Why don't people get peak oil seems like one of life's great mysteries.

But I came across an interesting article a day or so ago (can't find it again despite going through my browser's history ) that gave what I think is a pretty good answer. It was saying that to really understand things like peak oil it can take years of study first which is why only a small percentage of the population, activists, specialists etc., ever do.

This makes a lot of sense to me. I think you can understand PO at a superficial level pretty quickly but that's quite different from that deep conviction that THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. There's a line in the Transition book: If peak oil doesn't scare you then you don't really understand it yet.

I've got a doctor friend who's pretty open minded and has fairly radical beliefs. I was asking him some months ago about peak oil and if he knew about it. He described fairly nonchalantly that he understood it, that it was very serious and that it implied society would collapse. But it was obvious that faced with such an incredible prospect he wasn't going to anything different in his life and just carried on the same as if it wasn't true at all. So I think he had this superficial understanding of the problem without really getting it.

I think our beliefs are massively shaped by our culture. For instance if we all lived in the Middle East the chances are we'd all be devout Moslems. We may not like to admit it. We prefer to think of ourselves as independent thinkers etc. but statistically the reality is we'd be looking to Allah for answers.

I think this is true in climate change too. Ostensibly a huge a percentage of the population now understands it but for most it's only at that superficial level. The thought for those people is that if it really was that serious a lot more would get done about it right? But for most people the seriousness of climate change is negated by the actions of our culture; in the way it carries on as if there was no such thing. Subconsciously this goes on every time you go out into the street, or switch on the TV or radio. And this can only have a powerful effect on weakening one's beliefs about the subject.

So faced with the idea that it will take most people years to get their heads around peak oil it leads me to two conclusions.

First that there's no reason to get frustrated when people don't get it. The best one can hope for is to provoke some interest in the subject. Like that line in the Matrix, "No one can tell you what the Matrix is, you have to see if for yourself". If talking about peak oil, or showing someone a film inspires them to read book about it then maybe at some point they will see the reality of it for themselves.

Secondly, since we obviously don't have years, rather than hopelessly trying to convince the general population a better strategy would be to work with those who already do get it. I also think young people can gain a grasp of PO more easily than older people. Our ability to make new connections in the brain apparently dwindles after about 25.

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"I also think young people can gain a grasp of PO more easily than older people."

Not necessarily. My octogenarian father grasped the basics of PO almost instantly, as well as Tainter's ideas about complex societies.

I think many people don't get PO, AGW etc because it just seems too far fetched, too much like science fiction. Or the ravings of religious fanatics.

I'm actually surprised how many people *do* get it, even if they don't do anything about it (much as in the same way most of us 'get' 3rd world hunger and poverty and our responsibility for much of it, and yet do very little about it.

Some of my bf's friends came to visit over easter and I was explaining why we were doing the Good Life thing in Wales and mentioned just momentarily in passing that we'd need a lot of the old skills back 'if ever the oil were to run out', and immediately I was warned that this was actually quite likely! It's nice to hear the voice of doom coming from other people even if they don't feel the need to take action right now.

I can think of several acquaintances who understand the concept but again, don't actually do anything with the knowledge - people who are much better placed to prepare and reduce dependency than I.

I could be generous and say that they're not allowed to do anything by the nature of their home circumstances, their jobs, the local and national government, corporations etc. I'm not allowed to buy a 120 mpg car, for instance.

Or I could say it's one of today's modern diseases: that of not being able to accept any responsibility whatsoever, it's someone else's fault and thus they should fix it and don't bother sending a bill.

one of the reasons is crap like NewsWeek publishing total tosh like this

http://www.newsweek.com/id/193499/page/1

with the headline on the front page on display in WHSmiths... "CHEAP OIL FOREVER"...

People are bad at long term planning and questioning things of more than immediate interest.
To be fair, that applies to virtualy all animals.
We're the only ones even capable of keeping a tool for future use.

We've hundreds of visitors every year who come to see our place who say that trees take ages to produce anything so they don't bother planting them.

Much is due to the uncertainty in dates. If you were told you had a year to live, you'd do something about it. If you were told that you would probably get cancer in the next thirty years, would you change your life?

Great thread.

I think that the reasons a lot of people dont get Peak Oil are complex. Some reasons have been mentioned above. Inertia and reluctance to change or accept change, short-termism, etc. Us humans tend to be pretty complex and some are a lot more complex than others. I would also add that some people (Chav types) may not have the basic general education to get to grips with the concept, reality and implications. But I suspect one of the key reasons is where individuals are in their own lives.

Take the Doctor mentioned above - maybe he is in his early thirties with young children and aspiring to climb the social ladder. He understands PO, but I would suggest is not accepting it - it doesn't fit with his aspirations and goals, which he would not be prepared to give up easily - in 10 or 15 years it is much more likely he would. Or maybe he takes the view that societal collapse will not change one iota no matter what he does, so he has "decided" to go with the flow - is this the same as burying your head in the sand?

Take Tess' visitors, they might understand the problem, but are not in a position in life to be able to make the choice Tess did. Or may simply not want to make that choice yet.

Some people are not "affluent" enough to make changes. There are some people on here who are obviously affluent enough to be in a position to make changes to their lifestyles and environment to take the subject fully on-board. People who aren't will still make decisions whether they are able to makes changes or not, but this may involve lifestyles considerably outside the realms of what we consider normality. Just because you don't make changes doesn't necessarily mean you don't understand, but it might mean that you can't take it on-board fully as you can't change your life to take it onboard, or at least you think you can't.

Okay, will stop rambling now.

emordnilap wrote:I can think of several acquaintances who understand the concept but again, don't actually do anything with the knowledge - people who are much better placed to prepare and reduce dependency than I.

Well I've made only pretty limited PO preparations, largely because I feel there's only so much an individual can do. I don't think removing oneself from society is an option in the UK, and if things get really bad then I don't think an allotment would last 5 minutes. Such preparations as one makes have to be for the shortish term - beyond that we're at the mercy of our leaders and society at large.

I'm staying at the party until somebody calls time.

There's also the "cornucopian" problem -- people have been conditioned to believe that humans can do anything and that the party need never end.

A friend just sent me this; I think it sums up my present position

I feel I was almost pre-programmed to be an easy PO convert. I grew up in the 70s with the first energy crisis, and my parents grew up in WWII with a make do and mend approach tattooed in their brain, and my grandmother, a genuine Victorian seamstress for whom thrift was a way of life.

My father was a scientist and one of my primary school teachers taught me not to accept the party line but always to look at the evidence. The example he chose to back - Von Danegut - also taught me that some alternate theories are indeed complete rubbish.

I quickly became disillusioned with the scientific establishment and dropped out of that line of work. Later, my hopes for an 'establishment' career were finally dashed when I stood up to defend a fellow worker. From then on I took a much more go it alone approach to what I wanted out of life.

I always enjoyed the 'star trek' view of the future but it was evident to me from a very early (pre-teen) age that the one thing preventing all these wonder technologies from working was the issue of energy supply.

I forgot this in the 1990s when the boom times started and BP was promising at least 30 years of oil supplies etc. My energies were focussed on nature conservation because it was obvious that our high energy lifestyle was destroying the environment that was (literally) our lifeblood.

It was the lead up to the Iraq war which lead me to LATOC and later powerswitch. The UK involvement in the invasion did not make sense to me - until oil depletion was factored in.

Well, I almost just had a row with my father over lunch about the reasons the police are being given carte blanche by the Government. It's frustrating and astonishing, because normally he is one of the most perspicacious people I know on the subjects of politics and history, but he simply refuses to entertain the possibility of economic collapse and gets extremely defensive when I propose it. Perhaps it is unkind of me to do so, but when the subject drifts on to politics, I feel it's reasonable to say what I honestly think.

It is interesting seeing other people's reactions. I'm sometimes accused of reveling in gloom, as though I'm somehow immune to PO depression. Sometimes people say, "I have to believe the future will be good, otherwise I couldn't go on", but the fact is that this is going to catch up with them and then they'll be in a far worse situation than if they'd come to terms with it earlier. It's difficult to start with, but it IS possible to go on in the knowledge that things are going to get really bad, and I'm disappointed by how few people, including people I otherwise respect intellectually, have the guts to face up to the truth. You can't deal with it until you accept it.

I think Snow Hope makes a good point - accepting PO can depend on your circumstances. If I had a wife and kids, would I have accepted it as readily? I'm not sure. Though there are numerous people on this site who have children, so who knows.

Maybe it's also more difficult to accept PO if you're having a good time.