PowerSwitch

There are some people that assume there will be no peak oil and that oil production has no limit, there are some people assume that peak oil will come soon and there will be a total breakdown of society.

I strongly doubt that oil production no limit and believe that people that advocate such idea are either crazy or evil.

But why should there be a complete breakdown of society as some people assume?

I thought Peak oil doesnt imply we run out of oil, it just means there will be a relentless reduction in oil production for a long time. We will stilll have oil for food, transport, energy etc,but it will become more expensive and we will have to comsume less. But don't we already consume more than what is needed for survival?

I think the breakdown of society is possible, though doubtful, but I am no economist or energy expert. So what is your thoughts?

I have no idea what will happen. If I did know, I'd make a killing on the stock market - and wouldn't tell you anyway!

What I do know is that our society is not resilient. A small breakdown in one part of society's processes has knock-on effects down the line. Thus, when problems arise, society will not go wrong on a sliding scale from a little bit wrong for a few problems to a lot wrong for a lot of (separate) problems. It will instead start to break down when little problems cause actual and perceived effects which then become a multitude of problems. Two examples:

petrol shortage -> panic buying, queues, petrol runs out, road transport system collapses -> people can't get to work, shops are not restocked, people get angry and look for someone to blame;

food shortage (could be caused by the aforementioned petrol shortage trigger) -> panic buying, empty shops -> 4 meals away from anarchy, people get angry and look for someone to blame - this would also happen at Christmas, Easter and any Bank Holiday were it not for people's belief that the shops will reopen, restocked after the holiday period.

This morning I was half listening to Alastair Darling talking bollocks on the Today programme. I couldn't fully listen or there would have a been a serious breakdown here . And that seems pretty typical of TPTB in general, whether it's money, peak oil, climate change or any other big issue. The way the system is run by these *ankers (with a w and a b!), I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a breakdown.

Last night I was at a talk by Rob Hopkins on Transition, and there is hope for an orderly transition. If ordinary people can work out how to do it, why can't the people with power?

Because screaming "I'll give you ice cream" wins elections.

sluggy wrote: I thought Peak oil doesnt imply we run out of oil, it just means there will be a relentless reduction in oil production for a long time. We will stilll have oil for food, transport, energy etc,but it will become more expensive and we will have to comsume less. But don't we already consume more than what is needed for survival?

I think the breakdown of society is possible, though doubtful, but I am no economist or energy expert. So what is your thoughts?

As you point out, we at present consume a lot oil for non essiential purposes and could manage with less.
In the early days of oil depletion, it should be still readily available but at an increased price, at least in richer nations.
A rising oil price will result in increased food prices since modern agriculture is oil reliant.

However as time passes and oil becomes unaffordable, then food will become unaffordable initialy in poorer nations, but eventually affecting even the first world.
That could certainly leed to mass starvation, civil war, and outright war as nations seek to obtain food and fuel, by military force if required.

In years gone by we did of course grow food without oil, but the population was much less then. (and a lot starved back in the good old days)

A steady slide could be turned into a sudden crash by war, sudden extreme climate change, determined terrorist action, financial collapse, solar storm, or even a bad accident such as Canvey Island blowing up.

If Israel bombs Iran there WILL be a breakdown of society over a few weeks.

How's that then? Show me your working

http://www.iprd.org.uk/

I'll have a read of this

Sarge wrote:http://www.iprd.org.uk/

I'll have a read of this

Some seriously interesting articles on that site Sarge........

Sarge wrote:http://www.iprd.org.uk/

I'll have a read of this

I got a virus alert with it.

But this is very scary

http://www.iprd.org.uk/images/stories/p ... s_2009.pdf

If Israel bombs Iran, then world collapse in not IMHO inevitable but could happen.
After all various Middle East nations have bombed each other in the past and the world did not end.
If however anyone used nuclear weapons, or even made all-out war with conventional munitions, then the destruction of oil producing and transporting infrastructure would likely lead to a vast, sudden shortfall in oil production.
This would occur overnight, unlike the slow, steady decline that would result from oil depletion.
Quite apart from the physical destruction, it is likely that Arab nations would refuse to supply Western countries, prefering to offer the now very limited oil supplies to China.
Arab nations also hold very considerable financial assets in US $ , it is likely that such assets would be sold (even at a substantial loss) as a protest against the West.
This might finish off the already rather unsteady financial system.

The now very limited supplies from the North sea would help a bit. But it could be an "Alex Scarrow scenario" very quickly indeed.

Yeah, at last a decent acronym! I definitely prefer ASS to ASE.

[quote="sluggy"]

[quote="adam2"]