PowerSwitch

Well in the discussions about peak oil, typified by the Hirsh report, time scales are everything. We can't simply convert to a hydrogen economy in the time scale left to us.

So what about the transition to a new sustainable food production system. How much time do we have?

Depends.
People starve in the UK now, or at least die of malnutrition related causes.
I think we're a very long way from the masses starving in the streets though.
A food shortage could be met with rationing, reoriented production, and mass chicken ownership.
If that food shortage comes from an oil shortage, all of our oil will simply go to diesel production and all of our diesel will be prioritised to farms.
Even the worst cases say we will have 50mbpd in 10 years time.

Agree with Dominic. Given the inevitable prioritising of oil towards food production & possibility of rationing + less waste etc, I would think it's not going to happen in the immediate future. I'm hard pressed to see any oil shortage which could cause starvation level food shortages in the next ten years.

With that in mind, I've opted for the 15-30 year slot. That seems reasonable to me. A lot can go wrong in twenty years or so...

Thats not to say I'm against storing and growing food, I already grow a fair bit of fruit, or am in the process of doing so, and will store as much food as space allows.
But theres a difference between being fed and being fed well, if things do go to pot, I'll have the same ration as everyone else, along with a few years extra food and my garden vitamin makers.

With reference to prioritising, sure in theory. However even today (or in the boom years or 2003, 04, 05 etc.) globally we didn't manage to get the prioritising right resulting in many millions dying of malnutrition. Why when things get tougher should we expect prioritisation to get smarter?

Whilst technically, a global oil production of 50mbpd a decade or more from now is easily enough to grow the same food we do now. A rudimentary appreciation for how systems works suggests such interpolations are not correct.

I voted "less than 5 years" on the grounds that 10% of the world population are starving now, or at iminent risk of hunger.

If we are only considering the developed world, then we have got much longer, perhaps 10 years.

Making better use of food, cutting waste, eating less meat etc would all help, but the end of cheap oil is likely to reduce food production, therefore a die off in the less developed world appears unavoidable, and might well affect even nations that are rich at present.

I dont think that large scale starvation is likely in the west, but it could happen, especialy in the event of war, civil unrest, sudden climate change or oil shortages.
It is certainly sensible to prepare, both with stocks and by producing some of your own food.
More likely though that people will have to spend a greater proportion of income on food, leaving less for Sky plus, halogen lighting, air travel, 4x4 vehicles and tumble dryers.

I'm afraid I voted "less than 5 years" but I don't mean there'll be food riots and all that. I think people's diets will slowly get crummier and more adulterated as food gets more expensive (for whatever reason).

HMG may start to define "food poverty" like they do with "fuel poverty" now and take some action over it, but it may take a while before they hit on the correct action! They might just spend the first few years building an ever-more-complicated benefits system for the "food poor" with armies of civil servants needed to guide each household through 85-page forms including questions about the size of your step-parents' gardens etc etc you know the drill.

Oh god I've just depressed myself and perhaps you're right I am scary...

I went for 5 to 15 years though I'd probably think it would be towards the lower end of that.

I think we're a very long way from the masses starving in the streets though.

I didn't mean to suggest starving; just not enough to meet demand, empty shelves, poorest 10% can't afford to buy enough or possible rationing.

Even the worst cases say we will have 50mbpd in 10 years time.

How much of that will the UK be able to afford to import? Some commentators are saying the UK is technically bankrupt now. And in 10 years I assume there won't be much coming out of the North sea.

The other problem is that we currently import a substantial amount of food. With North Sea oil mostly gone, the collapse of financial sector and massive debt combined with the fact the rest of the world will be struggling I wonder how much of those imports we'll still be able to afford.

I haven't voted but it's never too late to start...I haven't been to the uk for years but when I was last there it seemed that being able to get good food was dependant on good income...London so maybe different in rural areas.

At the time we could only afford to buy supermarket standard...which although meant we could buy anything all year round was in no way as good as the somewhat limited but seasonal produce I can grow or buy here moe economically

dotty wrote:I haven't voted but it's never too late to start...I haven't been to the uk for years but when I was last there it seemed that being able to get good food was dependant on good income...London so maybe different in rural areas.

Nowhere near Dalston Market, then ? Or was it more like Easterhouse (Glasgow E-end) where it's miles to walk to the nearest fresh veg?

If there is an Iran attack tomorrow the UK will suffer an Alec Scarrow type event.

Even though we still have enough oil to be self sufficient in the short term with restrictions and rationings, the countries from which we buy our food are not all in the same fortunate position.

If a third of the exportable oil disappears overnight then....

I've voted less than 5 years. Not because of a worldwide shortage of oil but because of a UK shortage of currency to buy oil and indeed all imported goods, including food.

I see a long slow decline in our standard of living as the world averages out, and as our standard of living levels with the rest of the world so will our hunger.

RenewableCandy wrote: Or was it more like Easterhouse (Glasgow E-end) where it's miles to walk to the nearest fresh veg?

Och Aye, but they do a good Mars bar and cooking oil.

biffvernon wrote:Och Aye, but they do a good Mars bar and cooking oil.

Cooking oil? Don't they use lard in Glasgow?

I voted <5years because of our 60% self sufficiency in food production and the problems of not being able to afford to import food, fuel, etc. It will take years to get enough people growing food to make a difference unless it's given wartime priority.

Our civil servants are still telling the government that the world will be increasing its fuel supply for twenty years so they've got no sense of urgency about it.

fifthcolumn wrote:If there is an Iran attack tomorrow the UK will suffer an Alec Scarrow type event.

Even though we still have enough oil to be self sufficient in the short term with restrictions and rationings, the countries from which we buy our food are not all in the same fortunate position.

If a third of the exportable oil disappears overnight then....

Agree entirely, I dont think that an Iran attack leading to an "Alex Scarrow type event" is that likely, but its a scary possibility.