New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Feb 2020, 20:26

Deleted for rework.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Feb 2020, 20:37

Should also say, half of those cases are on the cruise ship. Which is a worst case environment. Take them out entirely, and looking at a slower spread. Still exponential though, with several independent hot spots.

The question is when we things change on the ground, here, in our towns and villages?

Also:

Brother of dead coronavirus patient in Qom is a member of Iran's central medical committee. He disputes government account, says his brother was 60, not elderly & had no existing health issues, caught the virus in the streets of Qom. He accuses officials of "cover up."
link

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Feb 2020, 20:53

Deleted for rework

Post by **adam2** » 20 Feb 2020, 21:05

The best time to have stocked up was before the plague arrived.
The next best time is now.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Feb 2020, 21:17

The best time to have stocked up was before the plague arrived.
The next best time is now.

I managed to clear the shelves of various stores of their dregs of masks & protective coveralls. Also have several pairs of goggles etc.
This stuff is not being restocked.

We now certainly have more of that stuff that 99.9% of people.

I have some antiviral hand foam ... but not enough.
Not sure where to find any.
Again, this stuff is not being restocked.

So extra stocks of paracetamol, ibuprofen, loo rolls, canned soup and other easy-to-eat / easy-to-heat food (for fever phase) are next on the list.

Animal feed needed too.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Feb 2020, 21:22

https://new.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comm ... doctor_dr/

https://news.ifeng.com/c/7uEKPqJndof

https://k.sina.cn/article_5705191799_15 ... om=science

29 year old Dr Peng Yin Hua is Respirologist (Lung doctor) and Intensivist (ICU doctor).

He passed away on Feb 20, 2020.

He was planning to get married in January but postponed his wedding due to the virus outbreak.

as per social media condolence posts below, his wife is pregnant. He passed away despite having serum transfusion therapy.

So another young doctor dies, presumably with the very best medical care available. Something still doesn't quite add up here. It is clearly not just the elderly who are dying.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Feb 2020, 21:41

Imperial College report suggests that China has vastly under-reported cases - at least initially.

China : reported 41

Imperial college model suggests : 1723

Quite a big ratio! x42

Even if the reporting has improved recently we are still looking at 1000s of deaths in Wuhan ... which ties in with all the videos and other disturbing reports.

Note: This many NOT change the mortality ratio ... they may have under-reported everything, so the ratio of 1% - 3% may still be correct.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 1-2020.pdf

and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kz54wBKi2c

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Feb 2020, 21:43

Just wondering - although we are being very laid-back here at the moment, is anyone here getting more than a bit worried?

At the very best I see say two months of economic and social disruption, even with zero deaths.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 20 Feb 2020, 22:21

Not until I know the unknowns. Does it actually kill or injure non-asians? I don't want other people to have a problem, but we are pussyfooting around the info we want to know. I have yet to hear of any white complications.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Feb 2020, 22:33

That's what I want to know

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Feb 2020, 22:39

Vortex2 wrote:Just wondering - although we are being very laid-back here at the moment, is anyone here getting more than a bit worried?

At the very best I see say two months of economic and social disruption, even with zero deaths.

I don't know whether to be worried or not, quite frankly. Especially since I'd be pleased if this takes out 1 billion people.

The economic disruption is already guaranteed - it will already be bigger than anything we've seen since the 1970s. Much bigger than 2008.

But who knows how much bigger, who knows how many people will die in the initial pandemic, and who knows what the long-term effects will be? Nobody, which is probably the most worrying thing.

Post by **adam2** » 20 Feb 2020, 23:02

fuzzy wrote:Not until I know the unknowns. Does it actually kill or injure non-asians? I don't want other people to have a problem, but we are pussyfooting around the info we want to know. I have yet to hear of any white complications.

The VERY LIMITED evidence so far suggests that it can kill anyone, but that Asians are more vulnerable.
Limited numbers of white people have been very ill, and might well have perished without good medical care.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Feb 2020, 01:49

I doubt that in the end we will find one race more susceptible then any other just on the race factor.. What I do expect is to find that middle aged to elderly people that are long time smokers will be the most likely to die if infected. As China has smoking rates higher then the US and a population that is older on average then the US we can expect their death rate from this to be higher then ours but that is small consolation if you are a senior citizen in the US that has smoked a pack a day for the last thirty years.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 21 Feb 2020, 08:17

Good point VT.

The actions of the Chinese government in closing down whole cities and stopping economic activity strongly suggest that the disease is causing far more problems than they are letting on. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but that worries me.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Feb 2020, 08:48

100 new cases in South Korea today. 204 total.