Are the silent carriers spreading it? - As much or more? Is the truth as in the Tapei article - slight symptoms get reinfected worse around. Maybe it keeps reinfecting till you drop dead as per numerous videos. This would explain the severity in Wuhan [where it has been bubbling away] -vs- the world and the slowness of onset.
An alternative hypothesis. Yes, there are a lot of silent carriers, who only develop disease slowly or very mildly. Maybe the control measures used to identify infected people have put selective pressure on the virus to mutate into a less virulent form. It would explain the relatively low death rate in cases outside central China. Just possibly, when it becomes a full pandemic, it will turn out to be much less deadly.
The disease also seems to be spread most effectively by a small percentage of superspreaders. This should make control a little easier.
UndercoverElephant wrote:........ Anyone who remembers the BSE crisis knows why. They spent far too long saying "We have no scientific evidence of a threat to humans" when they also had no evidence it was safe to eat infected meat. They erred on the side of short-term economics, rather than public safety or long-term economics.
Unless you were an infected cow the BSE "crisis" was very much a non event. The number of people who died or were infected was very small and all the long term predictions completely failed to materialise.
BSE-derived CJD was horrific. Not many cases, but horrific for those affected.
I wouldn't be surprised if huge numbers of people catch this bug without even noticing.
I don't think it's widespread in the UK, many hundreds of people in the UK, with relatvent travel history have tested negative. There's no way that cohort could all test negative whist a different cohort (who hadn't been to China) could have a significant number of cases.
It is hard to miss the the fact that a Corona virus destabilized China perfectly suits American hegemonic interests in its escalating American Sino cold war.
Little John wrote:It is hard to miss the the fact that a Corona virus destabilized China perfectly suits American hegemonic interests in its escalating American Sino cold war.
In other news, the Diamond Princess now has 621 cases identified, there are 20 new cases in South Korea (total now 51), and two cases in Iran with an unspecified number of suspect cases.
It now turns out that the two patients in Iran have died! So I guess their condition was either kept covered up, or they simply weren't know about until they got really ill and had to go to hospital. Leaves me wondering if that means there are 100+ cases in the country. I can't imagine Iran is very well equipped to do contact tracing, etc....
Left work early to search for more masks and disposable coveralls ... but feeling that I was over-reacting ...
During the 10 minute drive to the industrial estate I received a text from my GPs praxis saying essentially that if we think we have coronavirus we must stay at home and die there.
Then LBC had a coronavirus warning advert ...
Then I visited Screwfix ... they have little/no physical stock of masks ... but can maybe order some in ... max 5 per customer.
All the staff had also had coronavirus text warning messages.
The sales girl I spoke too looked a bit odd .. it was only when I left the store that I realised that she was SCARED.
I suspect that panic buying etc will start within the next week or so as the public become more aware.
BTW The trip out was worthwhile ... I found 20 cheap disposable overalls tucked away on a stray shelf at The Range.
Last edited by Vortex2 on 19 Feb 2020, 17:31, edited 1 time in total.
And it may also be causing more severe illness in Asian men than other demographic groups
I saw a medical report on this : Asian men apparently have 5 x more 'attachment points' which the coronavirus can hook onto to in their lung tissues than non-Asians.
And it may also be causing more severe illness in Asian men than other demographic groups
I saw a medical report on this : Asian men apparently have 5 x more 'attachment points' which the coronavirus can hook onto to in their lung tissues than non-Asians.
Yes - ACE2 receptors, though my medical knowledge stops there!
Saw disposable builders masks at B&Q yesterday. Plenty of hand sanitiser at Boots. No shortages of bleach, loo roll etc evident in Aldi / Lidl.
I think most people think a few hundred deaths is no different to seasonal flu. As Albert Bartlett would have said, they don't understand exponential growth.
A lot of people cant "do numbers" and are reassured by statements that only "one in a hundred" will die.
An alternative statement that "half a million could die" might sound MUCH worse.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
adam2 wrote:A lot of people cant "do numbers" and are reassured by statements that only "one in a hundred" will die.
An alternative statement that "half a million could die" might sound MUCH worse.
adam2 wrote:A lot of people cant "do numbers" and are reassured by statements that only "one in a hundred" will die.
An alternative statement that "half a million could die" might sound MUCH worse.
still one in a hundred
... and 11 in 100 severely ill with possible long-term after-effects ... assuming that they can get medical treatment ...
So maybe every family will have one or two members who become severely ill.
