The future of money

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Little John

Post by Little John »

AndySir wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote: Additionally, I see you are playing the diversionary tactics again. Whether or not the money multipliers or, indeed, FRB in general, leads to exponential money supply growth or not is a related but directly unconnected question in relation to simply answering the question of whether or not the money multiplier exists.
...but that's what I want to say. I've talked about little else. Why push me into commenting on your model which I wasn't talking about and, by your own admission, is not directly connected to what I am talking about? I'm happy for you to contradict my opinions but not for you to contradict what my opinions are.

I did briefly put down a couple of objections to your model, but again: it's not what I was actually disagreeing with you about so I don't want to be drawn into playing your straw man.
So, you accept the existence of the money multiplier and the fact that this means that at least 3/4 of money in our economy is bank cheque money (otherwise known as debt) and not, as many believe it to be, CB money?

Yes?
Aurora

Post by Aurora »

Steve, virtual mind games are all very well (as I've finally come to realise) but you really need to get out more. :D
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AndySir
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Post by AndySir »

That's what not disagreeing with you means. Are there people who still believe it to be CB money? I think the ratio is actually over 95%. It's not what I understood by 'the money multiplier' though, but... nomenclature... meh.
Little John

Post by Little John »

AndySir wrote:That's what not disagreeing with you means. Are there people who still believe it to be CB money? I think the ratio is actually over 95%. It's not what I understood by 'the money multiplier' though, but... nomenclature... meh.
I need to make sure I don't misunderstand what you have just posted there. Are you saying that 95% of money in circulation and on deposit in the banks is base money or debt-based money?

I'm bound to tell you either way it would be wrong, but one of those is even more wrong than the other. So, I'm interested to know which one it is.
Little John

Post by Little John »

Aurora wrote:Steve, virtual mind games are all very well (as I've finally come to realise) but you really need to get out more. :D
Virtual mind games?

What on earth are you on about?
kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

FFS just watch the Money as Debt videos with an open mind. Listen to what the man is saying before you start disagreeing with him. He goes through all this in a beautifully simple but horrifying way.

There is only enough money in circulation at any one time to pay off the capital on the loans. To pay off the interest the economy has to grow. Therefore the Fractional Reserve banking system is driving growth.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Little John

Post by Little John »

kenneal - lagger wrote:FFS just watch the Money as Debt videos with an open mind. Listen to what the man is saying before you start disagreeing with him. He goes through all this in a beautifully simple but horrifying way.

There is only enough money in circulation at any one time to pay off the capital on the loans. To pay off the interest the economy has to grow. Therefore the Fractional Reserve banking system is driving growth.
Thank goodness for another voice in here.

I've been banging my head against a brick wall in here for the last 24 hours. I need a bleeding break.
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AndySir
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Post by AndySir »

kenneal - lagger wrote:FFS just watch the Money as Debt videos with an open mind. Listen to what the man is saying before you start disagreeing with him. He goes through all this in a beautifully simple but horrifying way.

There is only enough money in circulation at any one time to pay off the capital on the loans. To pay off the interest the economy has to grow. Therefore the Fractional Reserve banking system is driving growth.
Actually that's precisely what I'm saying is incorrect. Paul Grignon himself acknowledged that his oversimplification was grossly misleading. When I said I fell for this hook line and sinker two pages ago this was exactly what I was thinking about. Turns out a lot of that video is just plain wrong or worse.

May I suggest you try looking at some of the Money as Debt debunking sites with an open mind. Or, alternatively, any one of my posts from the last two pages in which I explain why that is incorrect?
Stevecook wrote:Virtual mind games?

What on earth are you on about?
He may be referring to the fact that we've been discussing anything but the subject we disagree on for a page and a half, to the point where I've now been challenged on the ratio of debt based money to base money on the off-chance that there might be a disagreement. I'd have gone for 95% debt to 5% base. It was based on the literature from a monetary reform party here in Glasgow five years ago, so... happy to hear a better figure.

I do have this quote from Prof Charles Goodhart to throw into the mix though. According to him the money multiplier model is "such an incomplete way of describing the process of the determination of the stock of money that it amounts to mis-instruction".
raspberry-blower
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Post by raspberry-blower »

A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

raspberry-blower wrote:Banking 101
Yeah, but it seems some people just don't want to get it. :cry:

Why, I do not know. But they all seem to be on the traditional political right.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Little John

Post by Little John »

AndySir wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:FFS just watch the Money as Debt videos with an open mind. Listen to what the man is saying before you start disagreeing with him. He goes through all this in a beautifully simple but horrifying way.

There is only enough money in circulation at any one time to pay off the capital on the loans. To pay off the interest the economy has to grow. Therefore the Fractional Reserve banking system is driving growth.
Actually that's precisely what I'm saying is incorrect. Paul Grignon himself acknowledged that his oversimplification was grossly misleading. When I said I fell for this hook line and sinker two pages ago this was exactly what I was thinking about. Turns out a lot of that video is just plain wrong or worse.

May I suggest you try looking at some of the Money as Debt debunking sites with an open mind. Or, alternatively, any one of my posts from the last two pages in which I explain why that is incorrect?
Stevecook wrote:Virtual mind games?

What on earth are you on about?
He may be referring to the fact that we've been discussing anything but the subject we disagree on for a page and a half, to the point where I've now been challenged on the ratio of debt based money to base money on the off-chance that there might be a disagreement. I'd have gone for 95% debt to 5% base. It was based on the literature from a monetary reform party here in Glasgow five years ago, so... happy to hear a better figure.

I do have this quote from Prof Charles Goodhart to throw into the mix though. According to him the money multiplier model is "such an incomplete way of describing the process of the determination of the stock of money that it amounts to mis-instruction".
You entered this thread at precisely the point at which I made the case for the multiplier effect to JSD and it was at this point that you said that I and someone else had been unfair to him in that respect. At that point I reiterated the point about the money multiplier and you then went on to deny the process. I then demonstrated the relatively straightforward maths behinds it and you then went on to dismiss it some more but without any reference to specifically which part of it you did not consider accurate or why. You then went on to introduce unrelated aspects of the money supply, at least insofar as they directly related to the multiplier effect. All of which I am bound to say, is rather suspect in debating terms.

You now seem, albeit, in an extremely roundabout way, to be acknowledging that the money multiplier does in fact operate. You could have saved us both a lot of time if you had simply put your ego to one side and acknowledged that at the beginning.

Or are you still denying the existence of the money multiplier effect? You see, it is still not entirely clear to me even now since you have not made your position plain, even though you have been afforded ample opportunity to do so. If you are, then you really do need to come up with which specific parts of the explanations that have been given to you are incorrect and why. You have still not done this.

All of the other points you have made about the money supply are all open for debate and I would be happy to debate them. But, not until you make your position in this particular issue clear. For the life of me, I am baffled as to why you seem to find it so difficult to be transparent on this. Is it, perhaps, because to concede this point would be to undermine other aspects of your more general arguments about the money supply?
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AndySir
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Post by AndySir »

raspberry-blower wrote:Banking 101
I guess you didn't read that site you just linked to. There's a section entitled "Why the money multiplier model is wrong"

ETA: I know this is adding to Steve's confusion, I didn't have a problem with the multiplier model other than it was too simplistic and not really helpful. I have since found there to be serious objections to this model.

BTW if saying five or six times "the thing I disagree with you about is X" isn't clear enough, I'm not sure how I can debate with you on any subject. The thing I disagree with you about I disagree with you about regardless of the accuracy of the money multiplier model.
Little John

Post by Little John »

AndySir wrote:
raspberry-blower wrote:Banking 101
I guess you didn't read that site you just linked to. There's a section entitled "Why the money multiplier model is wrong"
And I guess you don't understand the implications of what was written there. He is not denying the existence of the money multiplier. He is saying that the multiplier is only a part of the horror story. It's actually far worse. He's right, of course. It's just that it seems to be a mental leap to far for many people to even accept the multiplier effect exists (as evidenced amply on here), never mind the other shenanigans that go on in the banking sector.
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AndySir
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Post by AndySir »

Nice, Steve. But this seems pretty straightforward

" There is no evidence that either the monetary base or M1 leads the [credit] cycle, although some economists still believe this monetary myth. Both the monetary base and M1 series are generally procyclical and, if anything, the monetary base lags the [credit] cycle slightly.

Nobel prize winners Finn Kydland and Ed Prescott , Federal Reserve bank of Minneapolis (1990)"

What's your objection to their evidence?

Plus

""Unfortunately, the money multiplier model of banking is completely wrong"

seems pretty straight up and down to me.
Little John

Post by Little John »

AndySir wrote:Nice, Steve. But this seems pretty straightforward

" There is no evidence that either the monetary base or M1 leads the [credit] cycle, although some economists still believe this monetary myth. Both the monetary base and M1 series are generally procyclical and, if anything, the monetary base lags the [credit] cycle slightly.

Nobel prize winners Finn Kydland and Ed Prescott , Federal Reserve bank of Minneapolis (1990)"

What's your objection to their evidence?
What evidence? You have cited two names second hand. What evidence did they provide? You are either deliberately bullshitting here because you don't actually understand the maths or you are deliberately obfuscating because you do understand the maths.

You have yet to demonstrate how the loan made out to person A from bank A cannot be used on the deposit side of bank B when person A's loaned money ends up there either by direct deposit by person A or via the deposit made by a retailer they bought something off with the loan. In other words, you have yet to logically disprove the inevitability of bank B's deposit side of their balance sheet being made up from the debt side of banks A's balance sheet. For so long as you are unable to logically disprove that, you cannot logically deny the money multiplier effect irrespective of any other shady dealings of the banks which may or may not further exacerbate things.
Last edited by Little John on 02 Apr 2013, 21:04, edited 2 times in total.
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