world reserve growth - a key cache that allows PeakOil idea

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 03 Feb 2011, 10:55

meemoe_uk wrote:Yes,and if that was the case we would have peaked back around 1910. Or if that 1960s article is taken as true, around 1995.

No no no no NO. They found more because they didn't stop looking. The difference now is that pretty much the whole world has been searched; that was not the case back in 1910 or even in 1960.

meemoe_uk · Post by **meemoe_uk** » 03 Feb 2011, 12:26

Fine. So according to you, there's no economic influence, or any other substancial influence. It's just been the luck of the draw that prospectors have been finding new proven reserves that offset last years consumption, at about the same rate for the last 100 years, each time just saving the day, in the constant battle against peak oil.

So a rough summary of history...

1907 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1908 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1909 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1910 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1911 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1912 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1913 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1914 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1915 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1916 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1917 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1918 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1919 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1920 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1921 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1922 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1923 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1924 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1925 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1926 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1927 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1928 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1929 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1930 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1931 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1932 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1933 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1934 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1935 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1936 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1937 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1938 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1939 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1940 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1941 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1942 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1943 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1944 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1945 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1946 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1947 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1948 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1949 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1950 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1951 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1952 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1953 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1954 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1955 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1956 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1957 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1958 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1959 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1960 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1961 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1962 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1963 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1964 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1965 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1966 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1967 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1968 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1969 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1970 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1971 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1972 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1973 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1974 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1975 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1976 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1977 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1978 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1979 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1980 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1981 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1982 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1983 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1984 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1985 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1986 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1987 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1988 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1989 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1990 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1991 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1992 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1993 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1994 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1995 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1996 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1997 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1998 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
1999 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2000 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2001 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2002 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2003 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2004 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2005 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2006 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2007 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
2008 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false

But don't be fooled by history. History is just there to trick you.
Don't try and see patterns that aren't there. There is no pattern here.
And even if there is, this time it's different, honest.
When skeptics say this time there really is only 20-30 years of recovable oil, they REALLY mean it, and this time they REALLY are right. This time prospectors really have scoured the whole world for oil, and this is all we've got.

The prime reason why peakoil is getting so much more hype now than in the past is
: not because of the industry is in a state of upheaval
: not because the internet has allowed much more cohension and popularity of debate groups.
: because peak oil REALLY is now.

Next year no amount of new tech, or economic stimulus will allow prospectors to proove substaincal new oil reserves, because they were never factors to begin with.
High oil prices don't stimulate oil companys to look for oil, because they've always looked for oil at their max capacity, even when oil was $0.10 a barrel.

You'll have to excuse me if I don't follow this outlook on peakoil.

postie · Post by **postie** » 03 Feb 2011, 12:56

Proved.

Not prooved.

But spell it how you want...

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 03 Feb 2011, 13:08

You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles.
You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles.
You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles.
You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles.
You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles.
You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles.
You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles.
You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles.
You reach into the box with both hands and get a big handful of marbles.
You reach into the box with both hands and get a big handful of marbles.
You reach into the box with both hands and get a big handful of marbles.
You reach into the box with both hands and get a big handful of marbles.
You reach into the box with both hands and get a big handful of marbles.
You reach into the box with both hands and get a big handful of marbles.
You reach in the box and you touch bottom but get some marbles.
You reach into a corner of the box and find another handful of marbles.
You can see that the box has sides and a bottom from the outside.
You've emptied the center and one corner. What to do?
I know you will get a shovel with a long handle and you will get marbles by the shovelful.
Over and over and over.
Your excused Meemoe

meemoe_uk · Post by **meemoe_uk** » 03 Feb 2011, 13:40

Let me improve that analogy.

You reach into the box and get a handful of marbles. You worry that there's no more marbles left, so look inside and prove to yourself there's least 30 more years of marbles, and probably much more. You are satisfied with that, so don't bother looking further.
Repeat. Always find 30 years more marbles.

Some onlooker comes over and asks how many more marbles you've got left, you causually say " Oh at least 30 years worth left ". Suddenly this onlooker goes beserk and whips out a vuvuzela and blows it your ear and everyone elses. He shouts " ONLY 30 year worth of marbles left ! Doom! ". You say " No, I mean there at at least 30 years left, I haven't really checked beyound that ". But the mad onlooker can't hear you, he's whiped the crowd into a state of hype.

Repeat 100 years. Same thing.

100 years later, you say " See? I told you at least 30 years left, not only ". The mad onlooker and his crowd can't hear you. He only occansionly asks to see what you've got, the answer is the same 'certainly 30 years worth, probably more ", his response is the same.

Conclusion :
If the mad onlooker \ boy who crys wolf \ peakoilers \ skeptics have been proven wrong year on year every year for 100 years, while the optimists have been proven right year on year, every year, for the last 100 years then I say at least listen and learn the optimists take on things. Even if you insist on following the hynotic tune of the vuvuzela.

Do I need to make another anology of 2 blokes, one for the last 100 years assures you he won't punch you in the back of the head when you turn your back on him, but does so, while the other assures you he won't and doesn't? Would you still trust the guy who has been punching you like this for 100 years?
I trust the optimists. They have never not told the truth. The peakoilers have been getting it wrong for so long.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 03 Feb 2011, 13:55

He must believe in abiotic never ending oil.

meemoe_uk · Post by **meemoe_uk** » 03 Feb 2011, 14:00

>He must believe in abiotic never ending oil.
Why? because there's lots of oil? Do you believe the ocean is never ending because there's plenty to swim in? Oh dear

I don't believe in abiotic oil.
I believe the peakoil community is based on misinterpreting the 20-30 year proven oil figure.

Are you too dumb to understand this? 6 pages in this thread and you don't seem to have grasped it yet. Another 6 pages needed?

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 03 Feb 2011, 15:15

I have sympathy with the King of Saudi Arabia who said recently "We will not drill for all our oil, we will leave some for our children," or words to that effect.

If that doesn't send you a message Meemoe, you must be thicker than you appear from your posts.

meemoe_uk · Post by **meemoe_uk** » 03 Feb 2011, 17:06

I have sympathy with RGR who said recently "Plenty of reserve growth in history and now" or words to that effect.
If that doesn't send you a message Kenneal, you must as thick as you appear from your posts.

So what about the Kings conservation of oil for his kids?
Why aren't people allowed to conserve in times of plenty?
Why do we have to massively read into this one statement?
Aren't kings allowed to conserve?

Don't rich people conserve their wealth for their kids, despite being rich?

Now, lets look at the kings actual conservation, vs his words.
The last couple of years, Saudi Arabia has been pumping out 8-9 million barrels of oil per day. That is not a conservative rate in terms of it's production history, that is parrying with it's all time high rate.

Now, let's weigh up the messages sent by industry insiders.
Today, just like every day in the history oil, there are some skeptical (the kings words ) , some are optimistic ( the kings actions, RGR ).
Which to read into? How do we decide? Let's look at the history...

1907 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false
......

2008 : only 20-30 years of proven left! Peak oil about now! - Prooved false[/b]

Hmm, let's see,
that's 0 % success for skeptical messages. 100% success for optimistic messages.

Which messages does history suggest you listen to\ read into?

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 03 Feb 2011, 17:15

I think everything that needs to be said here has been said.