New coronavirus in/from China

[Snail]

Short-term pain for long term gain. Balance of power, and furthering of strategic interests.

Reply to catweazle above.

[Mark]

Short-term pain for long term gain. Balance of power, and furthering of strategic interests.

Reply to catweazle above.

Did China's ambassador let slip that Beijing ALREADY has a vaccine? London embassy alters transcript of bombshell remarks:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ccine.html

Health Warning - the only outlets that seem to be reporting this are the DM and Sun...
The Ambassador could just have misspoken ?

On balance, I'd agree with Catweazle...
China is too tightly linked to the global economy now to want to wreck it...
Although I can certainly believe they want to be 'first to market' with any vaccine...
Everyone in the world being injected by the Chinese - now there's a conspiracy theory for you...

[fuzzy]

They have 5 bubbling in the stewpot:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... c827&tc=10

I bet they would love us to be critically dependent on their supply.

[UndercoverElephant]

So the WHO are now admitting they were bullshitting and that asymptomatic spread of Covid 19 is actually very rare. I'm guess they are doing this now in order to cover their arse when Covid19 deaths do not spike following these mass protests.

I personally suspect it won't spike because this virus is somewhat suppressed by warm, dry weather. My best guess is that a combination of people being careful and warm weather will keep a lid on the epidemic (in the UK) until October/November. Then it will spike again, just in time for Christmas.

[boisdevie]

I personally suspect it won't spike because this virus is somewhat suppressed by warm, dry weather. My best guess is that a combination of people being careful and warm weather will keep a lid on the epidemic (in the UK) until October/November. Then it will spike again, just in time for Christmas.

Oo, Covid for Xmas. Will it come gift wrapped?

[kenneal - lagger]

Shops shut for Christmas? Never!!!

[UndercoverElephant]

Shops shut for Christmas? Never!!!

That's what some people said about suspending Premier League football.

It will be a nasty dilemma for Johnson/Cummings if it happens though. Especially after this year's Chinese New Year. Either cancel Christmas, thereby smothering any hope of a big bounce out of recession, or risk a massive flare-up of covid and a second lockdown starting in January.

[kenneal - lagger]

Closed shops at Christmas might actually lead to a more Christian Christmas. If we still want to give presents we could make them rather than just buying them.

[Little John]

Shops shut for Christmas? Never!!!

That's what some people said about suspending Premier League football.

It will be a nasty dilemma for Johnson/Cummings if it happens though. Especially after this year's Chinese New Year. Either cancel Christmas, thereby smothering any hope of a big bounce out of recession, or risk a massive flare-up of covid and a second lockdown starting in January.

What, precisely, do you mean by a "massive flare up"?

[UndercoverElephant]

Shops shut for Christmas? Never!!!

That's what some people said about suspending Premier League football.

It will be a nasty dilemma for Johnson/Cummings if it happens though. Especially after this year's Chinese New Year. Either cancel Christmas, thereby smothering any hope of a big bounce out of recession, or risk a massive flare-up of covid and a second lockdown starting in January.

What, precisely, do you mean by a "massive flare up"?

It wasn't meant precisely.

[Little John]

That's what some people said about suspending Premier League football.

It will be a nasty dilemma for Johnson/Cummings if it happens though. Especially after this year's Chinese New Year. Either cancel Christmas, thereby smothering any hope of a big bounce out of recession, or risk a massive flare-up of covid and a second lockdown starting in January.

What, precisely, do you mean by a "massive flare up"?

It wasn't meant precisely.

Stop bullshitting. What do you mean by a "massive flare up"?

Or, are you just making shit up as you go along?

[boisdevie]

It wasn't meant precisely.

Then why did you say it? Doesn't precision in language matter to you?

[kenneal - lagger]

Shops shut for Christmas? Never!!!

That's what some people said about suspending Premier League football.

It will be a nasty dilemma for Johnson/Cummings if it happens though. Especially after this year's Chinese New Year. Either cancel Christmas, thereby smothering any hope of a big bounce out of recession, or risk a massive flare-up of covid and a second lockdown starting in January.

What, precisely, do you mean by a "massive flare up"?

I presumed he meant a massive flare up of the disease which our scientists think might clog up the NHS, cause a spike in NHS staff shortages through illness, both mental and physical, some due to covid infections and some due to exhaustion, and various other staff shortages throughout the employment sector as people lock themselves down and others go sick.

It's a fairly obvious scenario so why the difficulty.

[Little John]

That's what some people said about suspending Premier League football.

It will be a nasty dilemma for Johnson/Cummings if it happens though. Especially after this year's Chinese New Year. Either cancel Christmas, thereby smothering any hope of a big bounce out of recession, or risk a massive flare-up of covid and a second lockdown starting in January.

What, precisely, do you mean by a "massive flare up"?

I presumed he meant a massive flare up of the disease which our scientists think might clog up the NHS, cause a spike in NHS staff shortages through illness, both mental and physical, some due to covid infections and some due to exhaustion, and various other staff shortages throughout the employment sector as people lock themselves down and others go sick.

It's a fairly obvious scenario so why the difficulty.

Don't speak for UE. He is perfectly capable of speaking for himself

However, since you have chosen to define "flare up" yourself, let's take a look at that definition shall we.

It is based on demonstrably false implied assumptions.

We now know, unequivocally, who Covid 19 makes ill and to what extent. Based on the official known data drawn from several countries (I have used the worst data available), the following people die of Covid 19:

0% of children between 0 and 9 years
0.2% of children between 10 and 19 years
0.22% of adults between 20 and 29
0.3% of adults between 30 and 39
0.4% of adults between 40 and 49
1.3% of adults between 50 and 59
3.6% of adults between the ages of 60 and 69
12.8% of adults between the ages of 70 and 79
20.2% of adults between the ages of 80 and 89

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

Additionally, the above data is based on the case fatality rate (the number of people sick enough to have been picked up by the medical system and so appear on the stats). Given there will be a reservoir of unreported cases (which will not appear in the stats), the infection fatality rate is certain to be lower still for each age group. Possibly many times lower.

We also have now had the WHO confirm, publicly, that asymtomatic carriers of Covid 19 (that's around 60% of them) do NOT transmit the disease.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asympto ... -says.html

So, the only people who need protecting (if they want it) are the elderly and already very sick and the only people who should quarantine while they are showing symptoms are those people who have contracted the virus and are showing symptoms.

Those are the facts.

Which part of those facts do you not understand?

[vtsnowedin]

What, precisely, do you mean by a "massive flare up"?

I presumed he meant a massive flare up of the disease which our scientists think might clog up the NHS, cause a spike in NHS staff shortages through illness, both mental and physical, some due to covid infections and some due to exhaustion, and various other staff shortages throughout the employment sector as people lock themselves down and others go sick.

It's a fairly obvious scenario so why the difficulty.

Don't speak for UE. He is perfectly capable of speaking for himself

However, since you have chosen to define "flare up" yourself, let's take a look at that definition shall we.

It is based on demonstrably false implied assumptions.

We now know, unequivocally, who Covid 19 makes ill and to what extent. Based on the official known data drawn from several countries (I have used the worst data available), the following people die of Covid 19:

0% of children between 0 and 9 years
0.2% of children between 10 and 19 years
0.22% of adults between 20 and 29
0.3% of adults between 30 and 39
0.4% of adults between 40 and 49
1.3% of adults between 50 and 59
3.6% of adults between the ages of 60 and 69
12.8% of adults between the ages of 70 and 79
20.2% of adults between the ages of 80 and 89

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

Additionally, the above data is based on the case fatality rate (the number of people sick enough to have been picked up by the medical system and so appear on the stats). Given there will be a reservoir of unreported cases (which will not appear in the stats), the infection fatality rate is certain to be lower still for each age group. Possibly many times lower.

We also have now had the WHO confirm, publicly, that asymtomatic carriers of Covid 19 (that's around 60% of them) do NOT transmit the disease.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asympto ... -says.html

So, the only people who need protecting (if they want it) are the elderly and already very sick and the only people who should quarantine while they are showing symptoms are those people who have contracted the virus and are showing symptoms.

Those are the facts.

Which part of those facts do you not understand?

Ah John? Your facts only add to 39.2%. What age are the other 60.8%. that die?
I think using my small VT sample the real figures Are for 80+ people 42% and for all 60+ 93% (based by 1084 cases and 55 deaths)
Edit to add,
Ahh perhaps I see what you are doing. reporting death rates for the cases in those age groups which would not add as the cases are not spread evenly over the age groups. Doing it that way my data set gets 34.32% deaths for the 80+ group 23 of 67 cases. 70-79 21.42% (18 of 84 cases) etc.