New coronavirus in/from China

[adam2]

Please keep on the topic of coronavirus.
The death of George Floyd and consequent disorder is discussed on the "off topic" forum and does not belong in this thread.
Views about Brexit and the merits or otherwise thereof should be added to the long running thread entitled "Brexit process"
Discussions of race are only appropriate if directly relevant to the coronavirus.

[clv101]

Quite impressive how much of an outlier the UK is:

As countries begin to roll back ‘lockdown’ measures, how and when do we know it is safe to do so?

Oxford University's, Blavathink School of Government has released its COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) providing a cross-national overview of which countries meet four of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) six recommendations for relaxing physical distancing measures.

On pages 5-8, the report ranks 168 countries in order of their readiness to leave lockdown. The United Kingdom ranks ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY FOURTH!!!

Full report here 👇

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/ ... JI5AiSEIl0

[Initiation]

Quite impressive how much of an outlier the UK is:

As countries begin to roll back ‘lockdown’ measures, how and when do we know it is safe to do so?

Oxford University's, Blavathink School of Government has released its COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) providing a cross-national overview of which countries meet four of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) six recommendations for relaxing physical distancing measures.

On pages 5-8, the report ranks 168 countries in order of their readiness to leave lockdown. The United Kingdom ranks ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY FOURTH!!!

Full report here 👇

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/ ... JI5AiSEIl0

To be fair the only real reason on that list why the UK performs so poorly is the 'imported case' metric. From next week arrivals will have to quarantine for 2 weeks (the same as Spain and many other places). That will push the UK up to mid-table.

The transmission metric also looks odd, it doesn't seem to include the size of a population at all. 50 cases a 70million population is very different to a smaller country. Also, why is the arbitary threshold of 50 cases chosen? They also ignore the bit from the WHO at the start where they say the requirement can be "newcases ... reduced to a level that the health system can manage based on health care capacity" - that definitely applies to the UK.

[fuzzy]

Quite impressive how much of an outlier the UK is:

As countries begin to roll back ‘lockdown’ measures, how and when do we know it is safe to do so?

Oxford University's, Blavathink School of Government has released its COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) providing a cross-national overview of which countries meet four of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) six recommendations for relaxing physical distancing measures.

On pages 5-8, the report ranks 168 countries in order of their readiness to leave lockdown. The United Kingdom ranks ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY FOURTH!!!

Full report here 👇

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/ ... JI5AiSEIl0

From the home of the PPE course!

Well the gov stats are coming home. The UK has about 20 million more pop than officially recorded, so our stats are never going to look right. Unmeasured immigration, little testing, no tracing.

At least the sun shines now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzskLuD4pCg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SND55maK6R4

[clv101]

A thought occurred to me today. At some point near the start of the epidemic the UK had, say, 1,000 active cases and a high R meaning the number of infections increased rapidly - but these initial cases were highly clustered, many towns and maybe even some cities had zero cases.

Towards the end of the epidemic, again we might be back to 1,000 active cases with a R<1. But, the structure of of those cases will be very different. Instead of being in a relatively small number of rapidly expanding clusters, they will be much more spread out through the country.

This could matter because if something in the environment changes, increasing R back above 1, back to the initial value before any lockdown, distancing, masks, hand washing etc. then the take off could be more aggressive. This is because although the number of cases is the same, they are much more uniformly distributed through society than in the first outbreak.

[fuzzy]

If you arrange lists by cases per pop, we are 19th and the US is 12th. If they didn't lie about our total pop we might be lower:

https://covidly.com/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our deaths are simply measured hysterically by the storytellers compared to eg Germany. We also, mysteriously, have almost no one recovered. Clearly the whole game is Kabuki theatre.

[clv101]

If you arrange lists by cases per pop, we are 19th and the US is 12th.

I don't think we can compare case data. The testing regimes vary so much from country to country. Hospital admissions and fatalities are both more reliable datasets.

[Little John]

If you arrange lists by cases per pop, we are 19th and the US is 12th.

I don't think we can compare case data. The testing regimes vary so much from country to country. Hospital admissions and fatalities are both more reliable datasets.

So why are you comparing them?

[clv101]

If you arrange lists by cases per pop, we are 19th and the US is 12th.

I don't think we can compare case data. The testing regimes vary so much from country to country. Hospital admissions and fatalities are both more reliable datasets.

So why are you comparing them?

I tend no to for just that reason.

[Little John]

I don't think we can compare case data. The testing regimes vary so much from country to country. Hospital admissions and fatalities are both more reliable datasets.

So why are you comparing them?

I tend no to for just that reason.

Except when it suits. Right?

Quite impressive how much of an outlier the UK is:

As countries begin to roll back ‘lockdown’ measures, how and when do we know it is safe to do so?

Oxford University's, Blavathink School of Government has released its COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) providing a cross-national overview of which countries meet four of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) six recommendations for relaxing physical distancing measures.

On pages 5-8, the report ranks 168 countries in order of their readiness to leave lockdown. The United Kingdom ranks ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY FOURTH!!!

Full report here 👇

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/ ... JI5AiSEIl0

[fuzzy]

' From next week arrivals will have to quarantine for 2 weeks (the same as Spain and many other places). That will push the UK up to mid-table.'

Nope they will find every reason not to do this -such as Irish who have a higher per pop case rate than the uk. We musn't upset the building company donors.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ek-senior/

[vtsnowedin]

And now this!!

Having sex in your own home with someone from a different household is illegal from today, after the government altered its coronavirus legislation.

Is not that the government going a bit too far?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus- ... 27804.html

[Little John]

Well the government can go and F--k itself right off is what it can do

[Catweazle]

And now this!!

Having sex in your own home with someone from a different household is illegal from today, after the government altered its coronavirus legislation.

Is not that the government going a bit too far?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus- ... 27804.html

Even with the proper PPE ?

[kenneal - lagger]

Well the government can go and F--k itself right off is what it can do

Calm down LJ. You'll make yourself ill.

You really should get out more you know!!

And as for Catweazle's post, there will be a huge drop in the birthrate in nine months time! Not sure what the Catholic Church will make of it though!