New coronavirus in/from China

[kenneal - lagger]

LJ, you are assuming that the death rate, hospitalisation rate and age/death profile would be the same for an unattenuated outbreak as for the modulated outbreak that we now have.

Don't think anyone's suggesting that, it's nonsense.

I know that it's nonsense but LJ and bois. are assuming just that in saying that an unattenuated outbreak would have the same profiles as the current modulated outbreak.

[Little John]

LJ, you are assuming that the death rate, hospitalisation rate and age/death profile would be the same for an unattenuated outbreak as for the modulated outbreak that we now have.

Don't think anyone's suggesting that, it's nonsense.

I know that it's nonsense but LJ and bois. are assuming just that in saying that an unattenuated outbreak would have the same profiles as the current modulated outbreak.

No I am not. You are just not listening because you have so psychologically invested yourself in a particular narrative.

I am saying, quite explicitly and specifically that:

Around 80% of people get this virus and recover relatively unproblematically

Around 20% get this virus relatively severely through to becoming critically ill and requiring medical intervention

That 20% is more or less entirely made up of the over 70s and under 70s with comorbidities.

Therefore, the only people who should be locked down are the over 70s and those with comorbidities of any age. Which is around 20% of the population.

Everyone else should be left to go about keeping the economy going. In the process, getting the virus, recovering and, in the process, providing the necessary herd immunity that will protect that 20%.

[UndercoverElephant]

Around 80% of people get this virus and recover relatively unproblematically

We do not know that for sure. We do not know whether there are any long-term health problems, even for people who appear to have recovered. We cannot possibly know.

[UndercoverElephant]

Doctors who dissent are now being silenced

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPrbGU0 ... e=youtu.be

Fox News? Seriously?

[boisdevie]

Around 80% of people get this virus and recover relatively unproblematically

We do not know that for sure. We do not know whether there are any long-term health problems, even for people who appear to have recovered. We cannot possibly know.

So just to be one the safe side we lock it all down and kill the economy? To be on the safe side best not drive anywhere then. Or take a shower. Or stay in bed - people have died doing all three of these activities.

[adam2]

"Wetherspoons plan to reopen pubs in or around June"

Not certain on what they base this. Surely it is a matter for HMG and not for a pub company to decide.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52477789

[UndercoverElephant]

Around 80% of people get this virus and recover relatively unproblematically

We do not know that for sure. We do not know whether there are any long-term health problems, even for people who appear to have recovered. We cannot possibly know.

So just to be one the safe side we lock it all down and kill the economy? To be on the safe side best not drive anywhere then. Or take a shower. Or stay in bed - people have died doing all three of these activities.

I wasn't saying anything about what we should do. I was merely making a comment about what we do and don't know.

[Vortex2]

HMG data as at 30th April

As of 9am on 30 April, there have been 901,905 tests, with 81,611 tests on 29 April.

687,369 people have been tested, of whom 171,253 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 29 April, of those who tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 26,771 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 22,791.

No amazing change upwards or downwards.

[fuzzy]

LJ are you still working? How are you finding it?

It is surreal that lots of us are being paid something to DIY like me, and others are risking their rses daily. On the other hand, the NHS thinks I should be locking myself in a cupboard like 5 million others, so what happens if my employer restarts?

What situation are other members in?

[vtsnowedin]

Here is an American version of my current position. Divide by five for UK numbers.

To make this simple and clear.
It would be better to endure the loss of five or even ten million people in the USA to Covid-19 then to destroy the jobs of fifty million Americans and their families throwing them into poverty and dependent on the government which would no longer have the means to support them.

[Vortex2]

Are you peeved?

I had expected Coco The Clown to clarify the lockdown status today ... but, no, we have to wait another week for information.

At some point I have to decide whether to wind-up my business or restart marketing etc.

This lack of clarity is not helping.

[Mark]

"Wetherspoons plan to reopen pubs in or around June"

Not certain on what they base this. Surely it is a matter for HMG and not for a pub company to decide.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52477789

This is the problem with HMG not having a Strategy (in public anyway)....
I get the feeling that the economy is gradually restarting of its own accord in an ad hoc fashion...

For example (non-essential) Bentley is soon to restart production (with 250 new safeguarding measures):
https://www.cheshire-live.co.uk/news/ch ... w-18168335

[Little John]

Around 80% of people get this virus and recover relatively unproblematically

We do not know that for sure. We do not know whether there are any long-term health problems, even for people who appear to have recovered. We cannot possibly know.

The "we do not know whether there are any long term health problems" is an empty talking point. You may as well say "we don't know any number of other unknowns" on any number of topics.

As for whether we know, broadly, who gets this virus severely enough to need hospital treatment, the answer is yes we certainly do. All we need to do is look at our own and any other country's hospital admission demographics and the profile of the vast majority of those who get severely ill is crystal clear. It is overwhelmingly the elderly and those with existing comorbidities. Or, at least, it is for the current dominant strain.

But, that could change by a second wave. Which is precisely why we should have been encouraging as many people as possible who were likely to recover to get this existing less lethal strain (for the large majority) and develop at least partial immunity to any other variant that may follow.

And before you next trot out the trope of "we don't know if this will confer even partial immunity for any other strain", that too is a facile talking point since, if true, it would be just about the first respiratory virus in the history of our species for which it was true.

When it comes to biology, there are lots of things we don't know with absolute certainty. This is not pure physics, after all. But, what we do know is what is most likely and act accordingly instead of what we are doing, which is acting like rabbits in the headlights. Which is likely to produce a similar outcome to that which befalls the rabbit.

[vtsnowedin]

Well restarting the pubs will not make any elderly or infirm go to them.You will have the odd elderly that worked at one with a difficult choice to make. It would be nice if they could sort that out for those in a decent way.

[Little John]

Doctors who dissent are now being silenced

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPrbGU0 ... e=youtu.be

Fox News? Seriously?

Now, I know you are bullshitting. That report linked to two entirely credible California doctors. But, instead of critiquing what those doctors had to say, you have elected, instead, to shoot the messenger.

Pathetic.