New coronavirus in/from China

[Little John]

FT: At 41,000, coronavirus death toll in UK twice as high as official figure

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d0 ... 39799fa6ab

(Weren't the gurus suggesting a 20k maximum a few weeks back? At this rate this wave alone could reach 80k deaths)

Interesting and I think the right way to measure Covid-19s effect in the end but I think they are drawing conclusions and making projections too early and will therefore miss the mark.
Reason being Covid-19 has hurried up the deaths of people who were going to die later and be in the rest of the years figures and you can only die once.
You may well have the situation of the final quarter of the year having death rates significantly lower then recent historic trends because the Covid-19 has run out of weak victims and the care homes have already been emptied of all the most frail.
Only after they have a complete years figures and perhaps two years will they be able to tell the final tally.

He didn't post this link to show anything objective about Covid-19 (though there may be objective facts contained there). He posted it in order to elicit an emotional response because he knows he is is losing the logical argument on policy vis a vis lock down. That is why he is using words like "guru" to try and sarcastically disparage anyone who is not adhering to his argument.

[vtsnowedin]

Do we really need to regulate people that are on oxygen or receiving cancer treatment to tell them to avoid Covid-19? No government bureaucracy or bureaucrat could ever make those decisions better then the patient and his doctors.

[Little John]

Do we really need to regulate people that are on oxygen or receiving cancer treatment to tell them to avoid Covid-19? No government bureaucracy or bureaucrat could ever make those decisions better then the patient and his doctors.

I actually agree with that. I think anyone with a comorbidity or someone who is old and is likely to die soon anyway should be at liberty to ignore any quarantine. But, should they elect to do so, they should be at the back of the queue for state funded Covid related treatment

[Vortex2]

FT: At 41,000, coronavirus death toll in UK twice as high as official figure

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d0 ... 39799fa6ab

(Weren't the gurus suggesting a 20k maximum a few weeks back? At this rate this wave alone could reach 80k deaths)

Interesting and I think the right way to measure Covid-19s effect in the end but I think they are drawing conclusions and making projections too early and will therefore miss the mark.
Reason being Covid-19 has hurried up the deaths of people who were going to die later and be in the rest of the years figures and you can only die once.
You may well have the situation of the final quarter of the year having death rates significantly lower then recent historic trends because the Covid-19 has run out of weak victims and the care homes have already been emptied of all the most frail.
Only after they have a complete years figures and perhaps two years will they be able to tell the final tally.

He didn't post this link to show anything objective about Covid-19. He posted it in order to elicit an emotional response because he knows he is is losing the logical argument on policy vis a vis lock down. That is why he is using words like "guru" to try and sarcastically disparage anyone who is not adhering to his argument.

I haven't disparaged anyone.

I mainly post links to interesting articles and data.

If your unwarranted attacks continue I will simply leave the forum.

[Little John]

Interesting and I think the right way to measure Covid-19s effect in the end but I think they are drawing conclusions and making projections too early and will therefore miss the mark.
Reason being Covid-19 has hurried up the deaths of people who were going to die later and be in the rest of the years figures and you can only die once.
You may well have the situation of the final quarter of the year having death rates significantly lower then recent historic trends because the Covid-19 has run out of weak victims and the care homes have already been emptied of all the most frail.
Only after they have a complete years figures and perhaps two years will they be able to tell the final tally.

He didn't post this link to show anything objective about Covid-19. He posted it in order to elicit an emotional response because he knows he is is losing the logical argument on policy vis a vis lock down. That is why he is using words like "guru" to try and sarcastically disparage anyone who is not adhering to his argument.

I haven't disparaged anyone.

I mainly post links to interesting articles and data.

If your unwarranted attacks continue I will simply leave the forum.

Who are the gurus Vortex?

This is how it works Vortex. You or anyone else makes an argument. Others may agree or disagree with that argument, even vociferously. Arguments may be critiqued and/or torn to shreds on the basis of logic and evidence. No one takes offense at that and no-one uses that process to sneak in personal digs as a means of trying to win argument dishonestly. Or, at least, if one is going to cite the personal character/motivations of others as a basis for attacking their argument, do so completely openly and up front.

Do that and all will be well.

[fuzzy]

Look at the comorbidity and age demographics of those who have been admitted to hospital with Covid-19, those who have spent the most time in hospital with Covid-19 and those who have died in hospital from covid-19. Additionally, look at other institutional settings where people have died such as old folks homes etc. Your vulnerable groups are in those demographics. Where the line is drawn amongst them in terms of support for and/or enforcement of quarantining is, obviously, open to debate.

Yes, they are the ones in the lower age groups of the illness. My guess is in all they are 1/2 to 1 million below retirement. COPD and severe asthma are big groups. If they want people to work in 3 weeks time, that's how long your debate lasts - discuss?

Do we get our own Doctors surgeries? Do we get no hassle UC with NI credits? Is it means tested on couples income? Thatcherthewitch stopped couples pooling income for total tax, but the gov uses double standards for welfare and assesses couples jointly..

[Little John]

Look at the comorbidity and age demographics of those who have been admitted to hospital with Covid-19, those who have spent the most time in hospital with Covid-19 and those who have died in hospital from covid-19. Additionally, look at other institutional settings where people have died such as old folks homes etc. Your vulnerable groups are in those demographics. Where the line is drawn amongst them in terms of support for and/or enforcement of quarantining is, obviously, open to debate.

Yes, they are the ones in the lower age groups of the illness. My guess is in all they are 1/2 to 1 million below retirement. COPD and severe asthma are big groups. If they want people to work in 3 weeks time, that's how long your debate lasts - discuss?

Do we get our own Doctors surgeries? Do we get no hassle UC with NI credits? Is it means tested on couples income? Thatcherthewitch stopped couples pooling income for total tax, but the gov uses double standards for welfare and assesses couples jointly..

At the moment, all groups, vulnerable or not, are having to share medical facilities where needed. So, your point about the logistical difficulties is valid, both in medical as well as in broader terms. But, no more or less valid than for the current situation I would say.

[fuzzy]

Do we really need to regulate people that are on oxygen or receiving cancer treatment to tell them to avoid Covid-19? No government bureaucracy or bureaucrat could ever make those decisions better then the patient and his doctors.

In the UK many people are not working for 3 more weeks. After that, anyone in those groups has to last until 68 years old before old age pension. If they are advised not to work, what next?

[vtsnowedin]

Do we really need to regulate people that are on oxygen or receiving cancer treatment to tell them to avoid Covid-19? No government bureaucracy or bureaucrat could ever make those decisions better then the patient and his doctors.

In the UK many people are not working for 3 more weeks. After that, anyone in those groups has to last until 68 years old before old age pension. If they are advised not to work, what next?

Are there no disability pensions? The US has of course different rules then yours but if you are truly unable to work here you get disability social security and anyone can take reduced Social security anytime after age 62 which is what I chose to do.

[fuzzy]

Do we really need to regulate people that are on oxygen or receiving cancer treatment to tell them to avoid Covid-19? No government bureaucracy or bureaucrat could ever make those decisions better then the patient and his doctors.

In the UK many people are not working for 3 more weeks. After that, anyone in those groups has to last until 68 years old before old age pension. If they are advised not to work, what next?

Are there no disability pensions? The US has of course different rules then yours but if you are truly unable to work here you get disability social security and anyone can take reduced Social security anytime after age 62 which is what I chose to do.

Disability welfare in the UK is a total mess. It has been for 10+ years and the media are largely silent. Cancer patients for example do not qualify unless you are certified less than 6 months life by a specialist doc.

[Catweazle]

If we let the virus out into the less "at risk of imminent death" population we are taking a huge risk by assuming that we know the longer term affects of it.

We don't. We don't know if immunity exists, whether it can lie dormant and re-emerge in an infected person, whether is causes birth defects, etc.

Big gamble imho.

[fuzzy]

If we let the virus out into the less "at risk of imminent death" population we are taking a huge risk by assuming that we know the longer term affects of it.

We don't. We don't know if immunity exists, whether it can lie dormant and re-emerge in an infected person, whether is causes birth defects, etc.

Big gamble imho.

It is trickling into every group with every piece of food bought and mail received. The only control we have is to let it grow at a rate the NHS can handle.

[vtsnowedin]

If we let the virus out into the less "at risk of imminent death" population we are taking a huge risk by assuming that we know the longer term affects of it.

We don't. We don't know if immunity exists, whether it can lie dormant and re-emerge in an infected person, whether is causes birth defects, etc.

Big gamble imho.

How does continuing the lockdowns and crippling the economy help answer any of those questions? At best you are putting off finding the answer not changing the result.

[vtsnowedin]

https://www.arcamax.com/politics/editor ... mstiglich/

[vtsnowedin]

In the UK many people are not working for 3 more weeks. After that, anyone in those groups has to last until 68 years old before old age pension. If they are advised not to work, what next?

Are there no disability pensions? The US has of course different rules then yours but if you are truly unable to work here you get disability social security and anyone can take reduced Social security anytime after age 62 which is what I chose to do.

Disability welfare in the UK is a total mess. It has been for 10+ years and the media are largely silent. Cancer patients for example do not qualify unless you are certified less than 6 months life by a specialist doc.

As we come out of this I see a long list of legislation on both sides of the pond that need to be corrected. The debate about what needs changing and which way to change each piece will define our politics for the foreseeable future.