New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **mikepepler** » 08 Feb 2020, 20:52

Also, this on the conference in Singapore where he caught it:

The conference, held over three days from January 20, was organised by British firm Servomex, which is based in Crowborough.

So presumably there will be more UK cases showing up...

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Feb 2020, 21:25

Possibly not, as the only UK location listed is Crowborough. But.... many other places in other countries all over. Apparently the conference was 94 overseas visitors, and 15 Singapore hosts. Near coincidentally(?) 92 locations are on the list here. One wonders if it was a company gathering. Hope not. Handily, there's a global map with pin marker locations. Including all over the USA, Canada, a few in Latin America, Iceland, Middle East, South Africa...

https://www.servomex.com/locations/

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Feb 2020, 21:52

Well, if my son starts feeling unwell, he's coming home and I will look after him. F--k me if I get it, F--k everyone. He's coming home. That's it.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Feb 2020, 22:35

Assuming a pandemic arrives. how many days supplies etc would be needed to ride out the chaos?

(I'm assuming that the disease would 'burn out' after X days .. so you could emerge from your bunker etc after that)

Post by **adam2** » 08 Feb 2020, 22:45

Vortex2 wrote:Assuming a pandemic arrives. how many days supplies etc would be needed to ride out the chaos?

(I'm assuming that the disease would 'burn out' after X days .. so you could emerge from your bunker etc after that)

We do not know, but at least a month seems a prudent minimum. Several months would be better.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Feb 2020, 22:46

Vortex2 wrote:Assuming a pandemic arrives. how many days supplies etc would be needed to ride out the chaos?

(I'm assuming that the disease would 'burn out' after X days .. so you could emerge from your bunker etc after that)

No reason it think it'll flash over, it could stick around for years. Unless, old with comorbidities, the risk if death is likely very low. The main issue most of us face will be economic, supply chain break down, local service collapse etc.

So, take sensible precautions to avoid getting sick, but acknowledge it'll very hard to avoid. There's a good chance a vaccine will be available within 12 months if not sooner. It's very similar to SARS and a SARS vaccine was developed just never brought to market as it was too late.

Global economic crisis exceeding 2008 in magnitude.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Feb 2020, 23:33

From Jan 23rd:

clv101 wrote:This already seems more poorly contained than SARs, with SARs the majority of cases came from a small number of super-infectors. That made the tracking and containment easier. Seems we are already past that point. I expect we're going to see more deaths than SARs and this will be a globally significant event.

The official death count now exceeds SARS, and took weeks not months to do so.

Post by **adam2** » 08 Feb 2020, 23:45

And I see the start of shortages.
Tesco home delivery, limiting Perrier water to 12 bottles per customer.
Local flo-gas supplier, 2 propane cylinders per customer.
Nearest hardware shop out of 996 lantern batteries.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 09 Feb 2020, 02:41

adam2 wrote: Tesco home delivery, limiting Perrier water to 12 bottles per customer.

Lo and behold, for it is a sign! There shall be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. Woe, woe and thrice woe!

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 09 Feb 2020, 07:58

Hmm. Water is a good one to consider. While Perrier shortage is TEOTWAWKI, saving bottled tapwater and rotating that supply makes pretty good sense. Any disruption (such as to the water company chemical supply chain) will force you out of (relative) isolation and to interact with others. Not good.

As for the upmarket products, be especially wary of any French Alps stuff, sourced from Zut Alors le Tres Contamine.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Feb 2020, 08:42

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote: One wonders if it was a company gathering. Hope not.

The meeting in Singapore was exactly that. This has already been announced.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 09 Feb 2020, 09:53

PS_RalphW wrote:
clv101 wrote: The zero cases in Africa and Indonesia are proof that the virus has spread to those areas and is in the wild, because statistically, the movement of known numbers of untested Chinese nationals to those areas make it statistically impossible for there to be no virus cases among them.
Suspected cases in Zambia.

https://apnews.com/e11a9c5801264262e0b2f8661408b32a

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 09 Feb 2020, 12:34

Tyres... (Or Tires, for VT Snowedin

)

Several top global brands such as Michelin (two production plants), Bridgestone (six plants), Goodyear (two plants), Continental (two plants), Pirelli (two plants), Yokohama (three plants), Hankook (four plants), and Kumho (three plants) are present in China through their manufacturing units.

https://www.tirereview.com/china-rise-t ... und-globe/

With tire output estimated at 759.3 million units in 2019, China is the largest producer of tires n the world, followed by the United States and Japan.

https://www.ibisworld.com/china/market- ... -industry/

If the lockdowns or worse continue in China, of course this will also affect buses, trucks and delivery vans. With their vital supplies - not made in China.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 09 Feb 2020, 12:45

Fourth UK case, another contact of the third case in France.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 09 Feb 2020, 12:51

PS_RalphW wrote:Fourth UK case, another contact of the third case in France.

Bet he went gadding about hither and yon, and had a few beers with his mates too.