New coronavirus in/from China

[kenneal - lagger]

.........just shorten the shelf life and require transfer from the "strategic reserve" warehouse to the "ready use" distribution center.

But on the timescale of pandemic perhaps you should add "and from the " "ready use" distribution center to the bin"!!

If we got the timing right though we could rebuild the supply from the pandemic just in time for the next pandemic to start; a sort of just in time delivery. Ah! thinking about it isn't that one of the problems we have now!!

If we went over to reusable supplies they should last a lot longer than single use plastics so make storage less of a problem.

[Catweazle]

Are we considering the possible long-term non-fatal effects of CV19 ? It's no good going for herd-immunity to protect the economy if it leaves millions of people long term disabled.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

Also, there is no proof yet that herd immunity will even work, Korea has been seeing people catch (or re-activate) CV19 a second time, sometimes with serious effects.

Personally I'd like to see a long lockdown until the experts understand what we're dealing with.

[vtsnowedin]

Regarding most (disposable) PPE being dated, I feel that some research is needed as to why the expiry dates are as they are, and whether these dates could be extended at modest cost.
Many synthetic or plastic materials do slowly loose strength or flexibility in storage. This to me suggests at least three potential ways in which shelf life could be extended.

1) Better quality manufacture so that spoilage takes longer.
2) Long term bulk storage in an oxygen free environment. Most deterioration is a chemical reaction with oxygen in the air.
3) Long term bulk storage at reduced temperatures. Most deterioration is due to chemical reactions which slow down at reduced temperatures.

I have little faith in the average NHS manager being able to sensibly operate oxygen free storage or low temperature storage.
It might be better done by the military, or of course by the civil defence organisation.
Both oxygen free storage and low temperature storage become cheaper on a large scale. Both techniques are used for relatively low priced agricultural products, so should be viable for PPE that can cost over £1,000 a ton.

Any failure of the storage arrangements would not waste or destroy the PPE, just shorten the shelf life and require transfer from the "strategic reserve" warehouse to the "ready use" distribution center.

Considering that a thousand masks fit in a box why not line the box with a plastic bag and vacuum seal the lot before the box is taped shut. Cool dry storage should then last years. Still need to rotate stock with perhaps oldest used in less critical areas and ICUs using fresh stuff routinely.

[kenneal - lagger]

Here's a reason why treatments and some kit for the virus is slow in coming. Big Pharma has its claws on everything!

Already we’ve seen how medical monopolies have restricted access to coronavirus treatments. We know, for example, that health workers don’t have enough N95 respirator masks; less well known is that 3M holds more than 400 patents for respiratory protection, severely restricting who can produce and supply them in the US. Politicians have called on 3M to release its patents during the pandemic so production can be increased.

[Vortex2]

HMG data as at 17th April

As of 9am on 17 April, 438,991 tests have concluded, with 21,328 tests carried out on 16 April.

341,551 people have been tested, of whom 108,692 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 16 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 14,576 have died.

[vtsnowedin]

Are we considering the possible long-term non-fatal effects of CV19 ? It's no good going for herd-immunity to protect the economy if it leaves millions of people long term disabled.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

Also, there is no proof yet that herd immunity will even work, Korea has been seeing people catch (or re-activate) CV19 a second time, sometimes with serious effects.

Personally I'd like to see a long lockdown until the experts understand what we're dealing with.

I don't think we can wait for these so called experts to figure it out. Every day we are locked down is costing billions and ruining lives. The idea that any deaths from opening back up the economy is good reason to not do it is illogical. We have deaths every day from the medical effects of Covid and if we don't act soon we will have even more deaths every day from the economic crash.

[Vortex2]

Are we considering the possible long-term non-fatal effects of CV19 ? It's no good going for herd-immunity to protect the economy if it leaves millions of people long term disabled.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

Also, there is no proof yet that herd immunity will even work, Korea has been seeing people catch (or re-activate) CV19 a second time, sometimes with serious effects.

Personally I'd like to see a long lockdown until the experts understand what we're dealing with.

I don't think we can wait for these so called experts to figure it out. Every day we are locked down is costing billions and ruining lives. The idea that any deaths from opening back up the economy is good reason to not do it is illogical. We have deaths every day from the medical effects of Covid and if we don't act soon we will have even more deaths every day from the economic crash.

One aspect that we here may not be considering is the risk of mutation.

If we accept a mid-range spread of the virus, we are also giving the virus a bigger 'surface area' to create mutations .. some of which might be a lot less friendly than our old buddy COVID-19.

[adam2]

Regarding most (disposable) PPE being dated, I feel that some research is needed as to why the expiry dates are as they are, and whether these dates could be extended at modest cost.
Many synthetic or plastic materials do slowly loose strength or flexibility in storage. This to me suggests at least three potential ways in which shelf life could be extended.

1) Better quality manufacture so that spoilage takes longer.
2) Long term bulk storage in an oxygen free environment. Most deterioration is a chemical reaction with oxygen in the air.
3) Long term bulk storage at reduced temperatures. Most deterioration is due to chemical reactions which slow down at reduced temperatures.

I have little faith in the average NHS manager being able to sensibly operate oxygen free storage or low temperature storage.
It might be better done by the military, or of course by the civil defence organisation.
Both oxygen free storage and low temperature storage become cheaper on a large scale. Both techniques are used for relatively low priced agricultural products, so should be viable for PPE that can cost over £1,000 a ton.

Any failure of the storage arrangements would not waste or destroy the PPE, just shorten the shelf life and require transfer from the "strategic reserve" warehouse to the "ready use" distribution center.

Considering that a thousand masks fit in a box why not line the box with a plastic bag and vacuum seal the lot before the box is taped shut. Cool dry storage should then last years. Still need to rotate stock with perhaps oldest used in less critical areas and ICUs using fresh stuff routinely.

True vacuum sealing wont work as the contents will be crushed, by the external air pressure.
Replacing the air with nitrogen or argon would work to an extent, but I would prefer long term bulk storage in an oxygen free environment IN ADDITION as a second line of defence.

[Mark]

One aspect that we here may not be considering is the risk of mutation.

If we accept a mid-range spread of the virus, we are also giving the virus a bigger 'surface area' to create mutations .. some of which might be a lot less friendly than our old buddy COVID-19.

It's already known that there are 3 distinct strains of Coronavirus:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... virus.html

Could be more...?
Can't make it easy to develop a vaccine...

[stumuz1]

Remember PPE represents a failure in Health and Safety Law.

One of the reasons for the complete proliferation in ambulance chasing lawyers in the UK was the ease in which you could sue employers who thought they were doing the right thing in providing PPE to their employees.

The HSE issues guidelines (which have an evidential effect).

The guidelines for reducing hazards at work can be précised by the acronym ERICPD.

E= Eliminate
R= reduce
I = Isolate
C= control
P=PPE
D=Discipline

So when it comes to the hazard (bakery dust, covid-19, toxic chemicals, electricit etc)

The first thing an employer should do is eliminate the hazard, if it is impossible to eliminate, then reduce, if it is impossible to reduce, isolate, if it is impossible to isolate, control, if it is impossible to control only then should you go to the failure position of PPE. If the employee still won't wear his failure position PPE....The sack.

Health and Safety Law was very easy money 15 years ago.

[adam2]

Remember PPE represents a failure in Health and Safety Law.

One of the reasons for the complete proliferation in ambulance chasing lawyers in the UK was the ease in which you could sue employers who thought they were doing the right thing in providing PPE to their employees.

The HSE issues guidelines (which have an evidential effect).

The guidelines for reducing hazards at work can be précised by the acronym ERICPD.

E= Eliminate
R= reduce
I = Isolate
C= control
P=PPE
D=Discipline

So when it comes to the hazard (bakery dust, covid-19, toxic chemicals, electricit etc)

The first thing an employer should do is eliminate the hazard, if it is impossible to eliminate, then reduce, if it is impossible to reduce, isolate, if it is impossible to isolate, control, if it is impossible to control only then should you go to the failure position of PPE. If the employee still won't wear his failure position PPE....The sack.

Health and Safety Law was very easy money 15 years ago.

In the case of chemical and similar hazards I agree.
In the case of infectious disease, much of the above is not realistic.

Eliminate the risk ? promptly euthanising and incinerating victims might not be popular.
Reduce the risk ? as above.
Isolate the risk ? Welding infected persons into their homes, or confining them in secure camps might work in china, but in more civilised countries looks like a non starter.
Control the risk ? we are doing this by social distancing and related measures. Still a lot of residual risk.
So that only leaves PPE as the main defence, together with disciplinary action against those who decline to use it.

[Vortex2]

One aspect that we here may not be considering is the risk of mutation.

If we accept a mid-range spread of the virus, we are also giving the virus a bigger 'surface area' to create mutations .. some of which might be a lot less friendly than our old buddy COVID-19.

It's already known that there are 3 distinct strains of Coronavirus:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... virus.html

Could be more...?
Can't make it easy to develop a vaccine...

A FOURTH strain has been identified in Stoke-On-Trent ... oh, sorry, that's just one of the locals.

[stumuz1]

In the case of chemical and similar hazards I agree.
In the case of infectious disease, much of the above is not realistic.

Eliminate the risk ? promptly euthanising and incinerating victims might not be popular.
Reduce the risk ? as above.
Isolate the risk ? Welding infected persons into their homes, or confining them in secure camps might work in china, but in more civilised countries looks like a non starter.
Control the risk ? we are doing this by social distancing and related measures. Still a lot of residual risk.
So that only leaves PPE as the main defence, together with disciplinary action against those who decline to use it.

Absolutely, with a virus in the population we cannot eliminate the hazard.

But we can reduce it = Not gathering in groups reduces the risk of catching the hazard,

We can isolate it = self isolation

We can control it = washing hands, disinfecting handles, surfaces, etc.

When these these control measures will not 100% get rid of the hazard (virus) we turn to PPE as a back up.

However, PPE is at the back of the queue of control measures. Not the front.

[vtsnowedin]

One aspect that we here may not be considering is the risk of mutation.

If we accept a mid-range spread of the virus, we are also giving the virus a bigger 'surface area' to create mutations .. some of which might be a lot less friendly than our old buddy COVID-19.

Still not a good enough reason to continue lockdowns and certainly crush the economy. Yes every course of action has a cost. The question is what course has the least cost after all the costs and deaths have been accounted for.

[Catweazle]

Are we considering the possible long-term non-fatal effects of CV19 ? It's no good going for herd-immunity to protect the economy if it leaves millions of people long term disabled.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

Also, there is no proof yet that herd immunity will even work, Korea has been seeing people catch (or re-activate) CV19 a second time, sometimes with serious effects.

Personally I'd like to see a long lockdown until the experts understand what we're dealing with.

I don't think we can wait for these so called experts to figure it out. Every day we are locked down is costing billions and ruining lives. The idea that any deaths from opening back up the economy is good reason to not do it is illogical. We have deaths every day from the medical effects of Covid and if we don't act soon we will have even more deaths every day from the economic crash.

I understand, in fact I've already written that we need to consider how many people will have shorter lives as a result of economic crash.

However, some sources seem to indicate that nobody really knows what effects this disease is causing yet. We could be releasing something far more serious than we know. Perhaps these reports are mistaken, I don't know what to believe, but as I wrote earlier in this thread it seems to me that the actions countries are taking are not consistent with the majority of public info, as if there is something we are not privy to.

Edit to add// I just read that the UK furlough scheme has been extended to June.