New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **adam2** » 07 Apr 2020, 10:34

Mark wrote:
adam2 wrote:Another problem which I HOPE has been considered, is that a human only actually consumes a few liters a minute of oxygen, any supplied beyond this volume is simply vented to the surrounding air.
A high oxygen flow rate to a hospital ward, department, or area, will result in the oxygen level in the air becoming elevated beyond normal.
This is a considerable fire risk, and materials normally considered to be low risk will burn fiercely in oxygen enriched surroundings.
Do you mean a fire risk, or an explosion risk ?
If explosion, what %age does the oxygen need to get to (normally 20.9%) ?
You can buy fairly cheap monitors that can measure oxygen levels.
I'd suggest that they open the windows, but not possible in most hospital wards these days....

The risk is primarily fire, not explosion. Explosion is only likely if flammable gas or vapour is present.
Any increase in oxygen concentration increases fire risk. Even a modest increase in oxygen concentration adds to the risk, though the higher the concentration, the greater the risk.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 07 Apr 2020, 11:04

More modelling:

https://cid.utexas.edu/sites/default/fi ... 1585958755

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 07 Apr 2020, 11:06

Your cat can give you it:

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/04/ ... itive.html

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 07 Apr 2020, 11:13

fuzzy wrote:Your cat can give you it:

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/04/ ... itive.html

My cats don't ride the subway or go to the market. They have stay at home and social distancing down pat.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 07 Apr 2020, 11:26

UndercoverElephant wrote:Dr John on the "Oxford Model". Certainly thinks it is possible:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dB0U9Fbh0tM

I make be thick but I can't see it:

* Infected people have the bug detectable for several weeks.

* Until now growth has been exponential, so far fewer infected people will have existed in the past so the population of symptomless infected who are no longer detectable will be small.

* Only a few percent of people are found to be infected when tested.

The combination of the above suggest that there isn't a secret symptomless infected population ... the short times scales of the outbreak plus the long duration of the infection would have meant that these would have been picked up in the testing.

Also, current models assume the spread to date is fairly modest, at around three to four per cent of the population. I assume they use this figure for a reason.

That said, it has been suggested that 20 to 30 per cent of the population could have been infected in the UK ... but there is no data to support this.

Finally, has any other government suggest that the Oxford idea has any merit? I haven't noticed any such discussion with/without supporting data.

Note: Porton Down hope to pin down a figure for the spread of the virus from the initial 800 blood samples they are currently studying. However they won't have a result for some weeks.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 07 Apr 2020, 11:33

LBC programme ...

Listening to LBC .. many front line staff calling in.

* They are having a VERY rough time.

* Some have no/little PPE.

* Lots of younger people seem to be suffering ... one nurse said that the key factor is the size of viral load which infects you ... age can be a secondary factor. This is the reason why so many front line staff are getting ill and dying because they get massive viral exposures.

Almost all medical staff calling up are furious when they see families walking around, going in family groups to supermarkets etc. These people are causing needless deaths.

Of course these people who have a "valid" reason to not "stay at home" feel very justified in their actions.

My wife calls these people "selfish children".

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Apr 2020, 11:53

Vortex2 wrote:LBC programme ...

Listening to LBC .. many front line staff calling in.

* They are having a VERY rough time.

* Some have no/little PPE.

* Lots of younger people seem to be suffering ... one nurse said that the key factor is the size of viral load which infects you ... age can be a secondary factor. This is the reason why so many front line staff are getting ill and dying because they get massive viral exposures.

Almost all medical staff calling up are furious when they see families walking around, going in family groups to supermarkets etc. These people are causing needless deaths.

Of course these people who have a "valid" reason to not "stay at home" feel very justified in their actions.

My wife calls these people "selfish children".

People from the same household do not need to be separate. The mind numbingly obvious reason being they are not socially separated at home and so any cross infection between them is already inevitable. Thus, anyone who gets hot under the collar about seeing household groups outside not socially distancing from one another inside a group is an idiot. Sure, in a supermarket or other confined internal space, there is a reason for for social distancing even between household members due to becoming a potential obstacle for others to safely pass. But, that is all.

People need to calm down.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 07 Apr 2020, 11:55

vtsnowedin wrote:
fuzzy wrote:Your cat can give you it:

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/04/ ... itive.html
My cats don't ride the subway or go to the market. They have stay at home and social distancing down pat.

If you take your tigers for walkies then the neighbourhood will immediately do the social distancing. Cheetahs are much safer and easier to train.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 07 Apr 2020, 11:56

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Apr 2020, 12:06

fuzzy wrote:Your cat can give you it:

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/04/ ... itive.html

There is no evidence of feline to human infection. Humans can infect other cats, cats can infect cats, but no evidence that cats can infect humans.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 07 Apr 2020, 12:31

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
fuzzy wrote:Your cat can give you it:

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/04/ ... itive.html
My cats don't ride the subway or go to the market. They have stay at home and social distancing down pat.
If you take your tigers for walkies then the neighbourhood will immediately do the social distancing. Cheetahs are much safer and easier to train.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 07 Apr 2020, 13:02

Boris has NOT got pneumonia ...

Downing St, midday, 7/4/2020

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 07 Apr 2020, 13:40

From The Guardian:

The UK could see as many as 66,000 Covid-19 deaths during the first wave of the current pandemic, more than a third of the expected death toll across Europe, according to modelling by a US university.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washingtonâ€™s School of Medicine

They said that peak demand in the UK is expected to total 102,794 hospital beds needed compared to 17,765 available, 24,544 ICU beds compared to 744 ICU beds available, and 20,862 ventilators needed

See: http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/ ... -early-its

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 07 Apr 2020, 13:40

Vortex2 wrote:Boris has NOT got pneumonia ...

Downing St, midday, 7/4/2020

That doesn't tally with his needing supplemental oxygen?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 07 Apr 2020, 13:46

Ah. Maybe that's them being economical with the truth again, as in 'no bacterial secondary pneumonia'.