Man Made Global Warming - Fact or Fiction?

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

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Man Made Global Warming fact or fiction?

There is no such thing as Man Made Global Warming.
4
13%
Man is causing global warming.
20
63%
Both of the above but nothing to worry about.
0
No votes
Both of the above, sending us into the unknown (tipping point).
8
25%
 
Total votes: 32

caspian
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Post by caspian »

MisterE wrote:The point is it?s a real skill finding and reading ?honest? & ?real? research. Science has in my opinion become unbelievably corrupt.
I don't recognise your description of scientists at all from my experience. I did a masters and PhD in geophysics and all the people I worked with had the utmost integrity. I would suggest that most scientists would be appalled by fakery or manipulation of data to achieve a desired result. Since my field isn't psychology I don't know whether your experience is typical of that field or not.

I don't think it's wise to slur all scientists, including those in climate science, with the accusation that they often fabricate their data. I'm sure most climate scientists would dearly love to be proved wrong about AGW. After all, they will be just as affected as the rest of us if their predictions come true. Why on Earth would they engage in some grand conspiracy just to keep the funding coming in?
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Adam1
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Post by Adam1 »

So, MisterE, is there more curruption amongst builders or scientists in your experience?
Last edited by Adam1 on 30 Sep 2007, 11:42, edited 1 time in total.
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skeptik
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Post by skeptik »

caspian wrote:
MisterE wrote:The point is it?s a real skill finding and reading ?honest? & ?real? research. Science has in my opinion become unbelievably corrupt.
I don't recognise your description of scientists at all from my experience. I did a masters and PhD in geophysics and all the people I worked with had the utmost integrity.
You're talking about a hard science where demonstrable proofs are required and results can be replicated. I think things are somewhat different at the other end of the scale in the 'soft' sciences, like social 'sciences', psychology and economics, where everything is more fuzzy and conjectural, and there are cult like 'movements' headed by charismatic gurus - Jungian psychology, Friedmanite economics etc. Personally I dont think classical economics even qualifies as a science. More akin to voodoo.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal_Affair
http://physics.nyu.edu/~as2/
MisterE
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Post by MisterE »

Firstly I did not slur all rofl, hence stating its my experience only and cant be extrapolated to the wider community. Pyschology does do a great deal of quantitative research and much of its evidence comes from hard science ie medicine, neurosciences, biology, chemistry and that?s just the tiny fragment that deals with physiology of what makes us tick. I?m not the type of person that pays for a ?10k hoiliday of a lifetime and when I come home tell all the neighbours it was awesome when in fact it was terrible! So sorry for being truthful :-)

I think there is probably corruption in everything. I?d also say from my experiences which have been quite vast in construction that I could make a good comparison. On site (private work is another matter) from the ground level through to basic management then in construction its pretty honest. You get elements of rough work mostly through lack of skill or ?gis a job? types than through sheer deliberate negligence. You do get a few corners cut now and then, it depends on the quality of the main contractor. Safety is the main issue its getting real poor, and that often translates into quality in work. Again its more a training issue than a malicious in it for the money issue. Since the collapse of the apprenticeship the industry has been relying on lads from 1989 backwards. Now they are getting less and less, but the problem is being masked by easier materials to work with. So all in all I?d say bar from a few materials going walkies on site its very honest at that level.

As you get higher the honesty level drops off. Higher site managers will pressure contractors to get materials for their homes for future work with them, the contractor just buys what they need on account and the site managers throw them an extra piece of the pie. Other than health and safety, any problems from geological surveys not being what you wanted to NHBC or Building Inspectors problems are paid off. Been there bought the tee-shirt. Also Structural Engineers that are called in if there is a major problem get kick back to buy more time to rectify problems. Higher management again will also pay certain well respected contractors, higher prices providing that contractor pays for their jollys as well as slipping them a wad.

You don?t see nowhere near as much money laundering or organised crime these days though. Still happens in the EU though. Mainly with labour, I worked all over Germany in the 1990?s and that was all run by dutch organised crime. All workers paid in cash by a runner that would fly around German sites. Back then it was all run out of Holland. I was invited to visit the man in charge due to doing so much work in Germany, it was an eye opener seeing how they had every single UK and other EU workers all working for them and the workers didn?t even know. Out the garden in this person?s mansion were rows and rows of metal portacabins. Above all the doors they had names of companies that you?d see advertised. That tickled me as all the adverts in the paper make it look like there are lots of companies looking to employ in Germany.

Also on the signs were star ratings 1 to 5. They were basically 1 you rip off the boys and the site and 5 you look after the lads and site. So this whole ethic of it takes you a while to get set up in Germany ie looking for work, finding a site and then if your wise and know what your doing in construction, you?d look at the site say to yourself this is dire hence I?m getting my cash and I?m off or I?m not and stay and get ripped and go home or learn and try again, was all set up by them. This pushed all the skilled and determined workers into the same firms (ie portacabin). I only saw the tip of the iceberg, and don?t get me wrong everyone had all the legal elements from Tax to Citzenship covered, it was certainly not kosha. One example that sort of gave it away was, I had trouble on one site with a few lads from up north ? all chancers and they?d come in pissed and cause fights. Normally I?d be able to sort these problems out, but they weren?t even tradesmen just ex-cons trying to make ends meet. Nonetheless ruining the site and causing trouble with the rest of the lads. I phoned my contact in Holland, the runner came with another man. The only time you see two is when they are carrying a lot of money to pay the sites. I was in the office, they asked the German site manager to leave called the boys in the office, gave them ?200 to cover their petrol home, the boys laughed, then the Dutch lads opened their jackets and that was the first time I ever seen handguns. Naturally I kept a fake as hell cool head, and the boys instantly babbled a few words and left very fast.

So the construction industry can be corrupt, but these days its more business and certain high people swindling the money ie it does not cost 40million for a school and 100million for a stadium rofl. But that kind of corruption none of us get to see. The bottom line is would I let my children go into construction these days, the answer is 100% yes. There is far less corruption, its more or less what we call having a ?tickle? ie a perk in today?s climate. I?d be more worried about getting them place with a damn fine skilled master craftsman than anything else.

In fact I am stuck between a rock and a hard place. My sons are coming of age, the oldest is awesome at academics. I?ve kept them away from site based work and skills, simply because I felt squeaky clean academics and white collar work would give them a better life. After my time in academia I no longer feel that is the case. I 100% believe universities, lots of research and the funding of research is very corrupt and much more concerned with money than education or forwarding the human condition. Also that most white collar work is full of back stabbing little people, where honesty and being able to speak your mind and still get on with each other are things of the past. So my plan is now that I will pay for them to do degrees providing they also learn skills, my oldest wants to do law, and will be starting soon. So I?ve spoken to a local solicitor to give my son a job which he said he?s full up, to which I said I?ll pay his wages, and ?50 a week for your trouble and you can sack him anytime if he don?t cut the mustard. He said he?s hired lol. Then in summer my mate who is an electrical engineer for a brilliant company is taking him on at vacation time, they?ll work away, and he?ll take him on for a year ie gap year, plus he?ll get paid ?300 a week, so my lads over the moon with that. Hopefully that will fit more with preparing for PO work wise than anything else.

The short answer Adam to your question of which is more corrupt to me is this, they both are, but one is like taking knocked off goods from a lorry / big business (ie construction), the other is like stealing from your neighbours house or pinching a workman?s tools. They are both wrong but the latter is so so so wrong ? there should be no corruption in academia and science but there is and it sickens me.

PS this is site based work and not private construction work though, gawd knows that area is full of theives and horrible people.
Last edited by MisterE on 30 Sep 2007, 17:20, edited 2 times in total.
Bozzio
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Post by Bozzio »

Adam1 wrote:So, MisterE, is there more curruption amongst builders or scientists in your experience?
As a former architect turned plumber I can say from my experience that corruption exists at all levels within the construction industry. As for science, I couldn't say.
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Post by MisterE »

Skeptik your defo right too. I feel the same way, and as far as I am concerned Human Resources also has a down right cheek to call itself a science. The papers within that field are appalling, I?ve not met anyone in HR that can do research lol met plenty that think they are doing trustworthy research mind you :-) any science should teach in depth quantitative research methods and their bias, then teach qualitative. Also Caspian, I?m glad that?s not your experience and I too know many that are not that way and are good researchers and honest, I know a good few that are also appalled unfortunately too. I with you on most scientists but with climate change being very honest I just don?t feel it in my bones ? too much to be gained by government from their papers, especially when we consider PO but hey, I hope I?m wrong and its just bad experience on my part :-)
Last edited by MisterE on 30 Sep 2007, 17:24, edited 1 time in total.
MisterE
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Post by MisterE »

Bozzio wrote:
Adam1 wrote:So, MisterE, is there more curruption amongst builders or scientists in your experience?
As a former architect turned plumber I can say from my experience that corruption exists at all levels within the construction industry. As for science, I couldn't say.
As he sits there, weighing in all the copper off cuts muwhahahahaaaa ;-)

Jokes aside what made you change Boz?
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21st_century_caveman
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Post by 21st_century_caveman »

I think some people with too many PhD's for their own good need to be man enough to admit that they might be wrong and that man made global warming might actually be a possibility.
Humans always do the most intelligent thing after every stupid alternative has failed. - R. Buckminster Fuller

If you stare too long into the abyss, the abyss will stare back into you. - Friedrich Nietzche
snow hope
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Post by snow hope »

Well I don't have any PhDs, but I will readily admit I might be wrong about my scepticism of Anthropogenic Climate Change, providing of course, that the AGW Theory supporters admit they might be wrong. :wink:

It shall be interesting to see the replies! :)
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21st_century_caveman
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Post by 21st_century_caveman »

Absolutely, like i've said already i'm agnostic about it, you cant know 100% either way, it just seems possible and likely from what i know about complex systems from being an engineer. The same can be said (and was said by MisterE in another thread) about PO.
But then what do i know, i'm just a lowly engineer, applied science is second class these days aparrently.
As for being angry about other peoples points of view, well thats pointless, thats for religous fanantics.
Humans always do the most intelligent thing after every stupid alternative has failed. - R. Buckminster Fuller

If you stare too long into the abyss, the abyss will stare back into you. - Friedrich Nietzche
MisterE
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Post by MisterE »

21st_century_caveman wrote:Absolutely, like i've said already i'm agnostic about it, you cant know 100% either way, it just seems possible and likely from what i know about complex systems from being an engineer. The same can be said (and was said by MisterE in another thread) about PO.
But then what do i know, i'm just a lowly engineer, applied science is second class these days aparrently.
As for being angry about other peoples points of view, well thats pointless, thats for religous fanantics.
Same here I agree. I'm certainly getting more on the fence with man climate change than a total skeptic. I suppose confusion and trying to keep an open mind is where I am at the moment, as well as trying to get on with life. Thing is for me, I'll be back on another project soon, and off away from home for a while again. Its funny how there are not so many places like this forum where you can chat to so many people who are genuine, smart, down to earth and despite knowing the problems the future can bring constantly are up beat and quick to solve and address problems. I know that I get a lot from this place, and I myself feel to know very little in comparision to many others, but I try. Christ I've now been 12 months trying to find the time to put up my solar panel and change my cylinder lol - where does the time go. As for applied science, to me thats where its at, that is the ultimate in my eyes of all knowledge, no point learning anything if you cant make it happen in the real world.
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Adam1
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Post by Adam1 »

Interesting.

My only experience with the world of scientific research (immunology) was through a friend who told me that there were a few colleagues in her field with outsized egos, some over promoted their results to try to get ahead.

That said, the system of independent peer review does seem to work in teasing out or limiting the spread of bad science. The media tend to blow up minor controversies in the scientific world out of all proportion to their scientific significance but somehow roughly in proportion to the media and promotional skills of the scientist pushing the minority view. If the scientist's minority view is valid, s/he should surely feel comfortable with the peer review process.

The problem is made worse by our society and our education system, which seem to value opinion and polemic over demonstrable facts. Also, standards of scientific literacy amongst journalists are pretty low, with some notable exceptions, so most don't have the basic knowledge needed to ask the right questions. Finally, they assume that, because their scientific knowledge limited, so everyone else's must be. This is in contrast to subjects that relate to, say, English literature, where journalists will often make references that the non-specialist would not understand.

Going back to the question of corruption amongst scientists. Isn't the peer review process a bit akin to democracy, a free press, freedom of speech etc - neither prevents corruption and distortion of the truth but they do provide a space to allow thinking individuals to expose it.
Bozzio
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Post by Bozzio »

MisterE wrote:
Bozzio wrote:
Adam1 wrote:So, MisterE, is there more curruption amongst builders or scientists in your experience?
As a former architect turned plumber I can say from my experience that corruption exists at all levels within the construction industry. As for science, I couldn't say.
As he sits there, weighing in all the copper off cuts muwhahahahaaaa ;-)

Jokes aside what made you change Boz?
I left architecture during the recession of the 1990's. I had long since had a love hate relationship with the profession. I love buildings and designing them but hated working in an office with all that politics, boring pointless meetings and egos (of which there are plenty in architecture). Besides, I never looked good in a linen suit and I don't wear designer glasses (not that I wear glasses anyway) so never fitted in. I chose plumbing because I enjoyed renovating a number of houses when I was a student and decided to try for a trade to get my hands dirty again.

Plumbing is great. I work for myself and I'm always in demand. And you're right, the price of scrap copper has gone through the roof. ?2500/ton at the moment and rising. I took a few months worth to the scrappy the other day and took home ?800 cash (tax free). Even boring old steel rads fetch ?5-10 each now. You had to give them away before. Plumbing is also less affected by recession, especially if you work in the private domestic market like myself. Architecture is always the first and worst hit during any recession. People just don't want to pay architect's fees if they can help it and certainly not when money is tight. During the 1990' a very high percentage of architects in the UK were without work. It was only the building boom in Germany which attracted those architects overseas and prevented greater hardship. PO will affect construction globally and architecture will probably revert to the profession of the upper classes and wealthy as it was many years ago. I'm glad I'm out.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

There are some things, gravity, evolution, anthropogenic global warming, peak oil, where sitting on the fence as a skeptical agnostic is just plain stupid.

For sure we don't know all the details and nothing in science is ever certain. Einstein showed that Newton was wrong about gravity, but Newtonian gravity is good enough for navigating spacecraft and earlier theories were good enough for adaptive behaviour when standing close to cliff edges.

Now do lets stop all this nonsense arguing about AGW and do something about the problem before we all die off the upcoming metaphorical cliff edge.
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21st_century_caveman
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Post by 21st_century_caveman »

I wish i'd kept my mouth shut now, i will in future and just get on with doing something useful.
Humans always do the most intelligent thing after every stupid alternative has failed. - R. Buckminster Fuller

If you stare too long into the abyss, the abyss will stare back into you. - Friedrich Nietzche
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