The Stern Report

[Vortex]

I suspect we (as in the world ) will try and burn more coal post PO , but production in coal may decline as more expensive oil may lead to less coal productivity?

Interesting point - as oil becomes more expensive, substitution may also become very expensive.

I suspect that we underestimate the effect of minor disturbances to our system ... and the associated ripple effects ...

There are some US discussion group posts talking about the increasing cost of asphalt and oddly the disappearance of carpet underlay ... due to the current oil price increases.

Carpet underlay is not vital - but when say tap washers, car tyres, rubber gloves or whatever start disappearing due to factory closures then life could get awkward.

Just imagine the firm making washing machine door seals closing down - there could be a suddent shortage of new machines and also problems in repairing duff machines too. All because of a minor knock-on effect of oil price increases.

[SILVERHARP2]

I can't believe how positive this report is about how we can avoid dangerous (hey don't forget expensive!) climate change consequences. Peak oil aside for a moment, just the fact that the eastern himalayan glaciers are melting at the rate of 7% a year scares the crap out of me. Twenty years from now and they will be gone along with all the major rivers in south east Asia. Nothing we do now can prevent this (CO2 lag of 25/30 years).

Considering how many hundreds of millions of people (just in China alone) this leaves with no water I guess this means India and China will either implode or let rip in resource wars. And maybe not in 20 years but a lot sooner. China has already been tweaking the noses of the Americans by firing lasers to blind their spy satellites, getting away with it because of America being in debt to them. Kung Fu lessons are to be made compulsory for all Chinese children for keep fit reasons - handy too for if you need a large army. Of course, as the water situation gets worse this will cause financial markets to crash too, India and China are a very big part of the global economy and will be more so in years to come.

I came across this point about the weather change and waterflows in Asia. Do you have any useful links?

[Vortex]

Are any of these any use?

http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2 ... 7_Adam.pdf

http://www.ec.gc.ca/Water/en/info/pubs/ ... prim01.htm
"68.9% of the earth's fresh water exists in the form of glaciers and permanent snow cover"

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006- ... 501227.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12594011/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4346211.stm

[Kieran]

There's also this

[/url]http:/www.monbiot.com/archives/2006/10/10/the-water-boom-is-over

I'm taking the 7% figure and the WWF report as the best we have to go on. Of course there are dissenting voices eg.

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory ... /story.htm

Only just come across this myself. Flies in the face of what was reported earlier, I just hope he turns out to be right.

Apologies if my links don't work as intended - not quite sure how to insert them.

[Kieran]

Here we go again,

http://www.monbiot.com/

scroll down to the water boom is over.

and the second link

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory ... story.html

However I've also found this

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/53718.html


(Really getting the hang of this linking business now!)

The guy is talking cobblers after all. Oh well. We're doomed...