2012: Will it be the end of the world as we know it?

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

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ceti331
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Post by ceti331 »

Halfbreed wrote: Need? If there is enough to be had at a price people continue to pay, there is a need at that price. Artificially change the price to change the need? Or mandate a "non-need" by tax or gunpoint to force others to follow a particular behavior?
Whatever the price today,
there is a NEED to switch to alternatives (and check that life is still possible, especially if you are considering inflicting life on future generations) because the supplies will definitely peak and decline. the process of economic+population growth using a finite resource is a dead end, 100% guaranteed by simple mathematics.
"The stone age didn't end for a lack of stones"... correct, we'll be right back there.
Little John

Post by Little John »

Halfbreed wrote:
ceti331 wrote: heh.
as oilruns out doesn't the oil industry become increasingly profitable (in relative terms)?
If peak oil is about price rather than amounts, as it has been relayed to me, and I look around at how I make a living, I would say HELL YES!
ceti331 wrote: and of course someone who's job depends on oil continuing to flow is hardly going to say you need to switch to alternatives.
Need? If there is enough to be had at a price people continue to pay, there is a need at that price. Artificially change the price to change the need? Or mandate a "non-need" by tax or gunpoint to force others to follow a particular behavior?
I understand your faith in the free market model of price discovery and that you consider this to be the best and only sustainable method of such price discovery. The thing is, you're wrong. It's not sustainable. In fact it merely serves to drive us, as a civilisation, over the cliff. It also means we don't get to see that cliff until the very last moment. Let me explain by way of example;

Rhinoceroses are nearing extinction. They are nearing extinction for two reasons. The first reason is that over the last hundred years or so, the expansion of man's activities have pushed the environment in which the rhinoceros lives to the point where there is insufficient for it to live in sustainable numbers. However, the final death knell for this animal is the market in rhonoceros horns. It turns out, in much of Asia, rhinoceros horn is seen as an aphrodisiac and a general medicinal product. Consequently, rhinoceros horn has always attracted a high premium. However, as rhinoceroses become ever rarer, this has simply served to push up the price of rhinoceros horn to ever greater highs. Thus, the rarer that rhinoceroses become, the more it becomes worthwhile to hunt them down for their horns and so their demise actually accelerates towards the point of extinction driven by the market in rhinoceros horns.

The only way to stop this insanity is to completely stop that market from operating. The fact is, of course, it may prove impossible to do that. But, the point stands. A free market is not the answer to preserving a diminishing supply of a precious commodity. Indeed, it can produce outcomes that are the very antithesis of that which is most desirable in the long run. The market, as you have already implied, does not "think ahead". It just reacts in real-time to immediately previous information. That's great, of course, if you want a self organising system of resource consumption. Terrible, though, if you want to strategically manage that consumption with a view to the long term, particularly of a finite resource.

The free market is dumb, in other words.
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Bandidoz
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Post by Bandidoz »

Excellent analogy ^^^^^.

Also see "Tragedy of the Commons":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
Olduvai Theory (Updated) (Reviewed)
Easter Island - a warning from history : http://dieoff.org/page145.htm
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

I know this isn't the point of your narrative, Steve, but it would also be handy to make widespread some kind of story that rhinoceros horn extract use causes cancer.

It doesn't need to be true to work - just look at what climate change supporters believe!

Back on topic.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
Little John

Post by Little John »

emordnilap wrote:I know this isn't the point of your narrative, Steve, but it would also be handy to make widespread some kind of story that rhinoceros horn extract use causes cancer.

It doesn't need to be true to work - just look at what climate change supporters believe!

Back on topic.
Ah yes.

This is a psychological phenomenon whereby if you place a piece of information inside an existing mental schema on a given topic, even if that information turns out to be not true at a later stage, people are unwilling to drop it since it will leave a hole in their narrative of the topic. In other words, people prefer their narratives to be complete, even if incorrect, as opposed to incomplete, even if correct.

We are the "storytelling" species.
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

I thought we were back on topic... :lol:

2012: Will it be the end of the world as we know it?

Image

21th?
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Post by JavaScriptDonkey »

stevecook172001 wrote: The only way to stop this insanity is to completely stop that market from operating. The fact is, of course, it may prove impossible to do that. But, the point stands. A free market is not the answer to preserving a diminishing supply of a precious commodity. Indeed, it can produce outcomes that are the very antithesis of that which is most desirable in the long run. The market, as you have already implied, does not "think ahead". It just reacts in real-time to immediately previous information. That's great, of course, if you want a self organising system of resource consumption. Terrible, though, if you want to strategically manage that consumption with a view to the long term, particularly of a finite resource.

The free market is dumb, in other words.
In a truly free market people would be allowed to farm rhinoceros for their horns, supplying the demand and bring prices down.

It is only is a regulated market that rhinoceros are endangered.
ceti331
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Post by ceti331 »

JavaScriptDonkey wrote:It is only is a regulated market that rhinoceros are endangered.
its catch 22
either a free market gives the masses what they want,
or populist socialist politicians give the masses what they want

so long as the masses cant see or understand the problem we're doomed, market or not.
"The stone age didn't end for a lack of stones"... correct, we'll be right back there.
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

JavaScriptDonkey wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote: The only way to stop this insanity is to completely stop that market from operating. The fact is, of course, it may prove impossible to do that. But, the point stands. A free market is not the answer to preserving a diminishing supply of a precious commodity. Indeed, it can produce outcomes that are the very antithesis of that which is most desirable in the long run. The market, as you have already implied, does not "think ahead". It just reacts in real-time to immediately previous information. That's great, of course, if you want a self organising system of resource consumption. Terrible, though, if you want to strategically manage that consumption with a view to the long term, particularly of a finite resource.

The free market is dumb, in other words.
In a truly free market people would be allowed to farm rhinoceros for their horns,
I'm not sure that's possible. Even with the best will in the world, some species simply can't be farmed.
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Post by Little John »

JavaScriptDonkey wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote: The only way to stop this insanity is to completely stop that market from operating. The fact is, of course, it may prove impossible to do that. But, the point stands. A free market is not the answer to preserving a diminishing supply of a precious commodity. Indeed, it can produce outcomes that are the very antithesis of that which is most desirable in the long run. The market, as you have already implied, does not "think ahead". It just reacts in real-time to immediately previous information. That's great, of course, if you want a self organising system of resource consumption. Terrible, though, if you want to strategically manage that consumption with a view to the long term, particularly of a finite resource.

The free market is dumb, in other words.
In a truly free market people would be allowed to farm rhinoceros for their horns, supplying the demand and bring prices down.

It is only is a regulated market that rhinoceros are endangered.
Firstly, if it is physically possible to farm rhinoceroses, then I would possibly agree with this JSD. However, I don't actually know about the viability of farming them and so must reserve judgement.

Secondly, I am presuming that rhinoceroses probably require a very large range and so, although it may be possible to generate a large amount of money per individual rhino horn, the amount of land needed to produce that horn might be more profitably utilised in some other way, such as raising beef or cereals. I don't actually know and so must, again, reserve judgement.

Thirdly, even assuming that rhino farming were physically possible and even assuming that it turns out to be more profitable, given the land mass needed to produce a rhino horn, that doing so raises the largest profit for the farmer, there is the issue of turning over land for the profit of a given individual farmer, but at the expense of food production for the indigenous population in that area. For example in India, significant tracts of land have been bought up by multinational farming conglomerates and have been turned over to the production of biofuels for the international petrochemical market. In doing so, this has meant there is less land available to grow one of the staple crops of india, the onion. Consequently, the price of onions has shot through the roof in recent years, provoking the Indian onion riots some 5 years back.

However, assuming that rhino can be viably farmed and can also be farmed in such a way as to not deprive the indigenous population of access to essential renewable resources, then I agree, farming them for their horns would make some sense.

Notwithstanding any of the above, the rhino analogy I used to illustrate my point was merely that, an analogy. Like all analogies, it has it's use in basically illustrating a point, but will inevitably break down if pushed far enough. If it doesn't break down at some point, then it's not an analogy, it's the thing itself. Thus, the analogy I have used shouldn't be taken as a literal example of the principle I was outlining.

As you will have no doubt read in the rest of my post, I was referring, primarily to the free-market acquisition and consumption of precious and non-renewable resources such as hydrocarbons. When it comes to such resources the principle argument that free-markets are not suitable mechanisms for the strategic preservation of them for all of the reasons I have cited holds true. Indeed, one could even take the fact that rhinos are not allowed to be farmed as a rather appropriate analogy for the fact that hydrocarbons cannot be re-made once they are used up and so the analogy still stands.
Last edited by Little John on 06 Dec 2012, 10:17, edited 2 times in total.
Halfbreed
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Post by Halfbreed »

stevecook172001 wrote: I understand your faith in the free market model of price discovery and that you consider this to be the best and only sustainable method of such price discovery. The thing is, you're wrong. It's not sustainable.
Sustainability is an illusion of time. Nothing is sustainable, not you, not me, not the food we grow, nor the planet we live on or the sun powering it. A new metric is needed because once you realize that sustainability is time dependent, baceteria in th ptri dish are sustainable, as long as the sugar holds out, Easter islanders are sustainable, as long as there is wood around to use, I am perfectly sustainable in the next 12 hours because I have all the beer I need. Humans are sustainable for fuel in the next 2 weeks because of what is in storage. Mankind is sutainable over the next year because there is no singularity to destroy the joint near term. It's nothing but an illusion. Looks good while you are in it...but then one day...poof.
stevecook wrote: The free market is dumb, in other words.
Maybe. But it seems to work for more people than it doesn't work for, and allows huge chunks of humanity to sit around mooching off the largesse of others, which might strike any other species on the planet as a pretty good deal, if they could accomplish the same thing.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

If the free market allocated costs for pollution it might work a bit better. As it is the atmosphere, the oceans and to an extent the land are used as a free dumping ground for the bits and pieces of processes that are a nuisance to get rid of otherwise, such as carbon dioxide and methane gases. It is illegal in many places, Europe for instance, to dump SOX, NOX from some sources and ozone depleting gases into the atmosphere but not carbon dioxide for some reason.

This free use of the atmosphere as a dumping ground gives some forms of electricity generation, a coal fired power station, an unfair advantage over others, such as wind turbines or PV so the market doesn't work very well in this area.

We allow cars to emit gases that cause health disorders, such as asthma, without cost penalty so electric or gas (LPG) powered vehicles don't get a look in.

The market is very dysfunctional in this sort of area which is what I think Steve was alluding to.

The banking system has completely avoided the free market as have other very large conglomerates, such as the American car manufacturers. In a free market these would have been allowed to fail but it was politically unacceptable for this to happen so they were bailed out. They are the biggest receivers of socialist largesse in the world but we don't hear much about that here or in the US. There's plenty of complaining about the subsidisation of health care which is a small fraction of the cost of subsidising the banks.

There is no such thing as a free market and never has been. The market has always been regulated to some degree and the less regulation that there has been the more criminal activity and failures there have been, 2008 being a prime example!

I cannot see why US banks selling CDOs and the credit agencies that fraudulently gave them high ratings were not prosecuted for fraud. But then I can't see who are their friends in high places who are protecting them. Someone is doing a good job because even with the culture of frivolous litigation that exists in the US no one has had a go at compensation yet.
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Post by Little John »

Halfbreed wrote:Sustainability is an illusion of time. Nothing is sustainable, not you, not me, not the food we grow, nor the planet we live on or the sun powering it. A new metric is needed because once you realize that sustainability is time dependent, baceteria in th ptri dish are sustainable, as long as the sugar holds out, Easter islanders are sustainable, as long as there is wood around to use, I am perfectly sustainable in the next 12 hours because I have all the beer I need. Humans are sustainable for fuel in the next 2 weeks because of what is in storage. Mankind is sutainable over the next year because there is no singularity to destroy the joint near term. It's nothing but an illusion. Looks good while you are in it...but then one day...poof.
Translation: "I accept the "free-market" is unsustainable. But, I don't care since it benefits me."
......it seems to work for more people than it doesn't work for, and allows huge chunks of humanity to sit around mooching off the largesse of others, which might strike any other species on the planet as a pretty good deal, if they could accomplish the same thing.
Translation: "I accept the "free-market" is unfair. But, I don't care since it benefits me."
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

stevecook172001 wrote: However, assuming that rhino can be viably farmed and can also be farmed in such a way as to not deprive the indigenous population of access to essential renewable resources, then I agree, farming them for their horns would make some sense.
Apart from the fact that rhino horn is chemically the same as the horns and claws of most other animals, including human fingernails, and has no actual medicinal properties at all, making the entire operation a stupid waste of time.
We must deal with reality or it will deal with us.
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