New coronavirus in/from China

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Feb 2020, 10:15

so, to summarise the picture so far:

It's out and containment has probably failed and will be acknowledged to have failed at some point in the not too distant future.

So, the next questions are, how many folks will get this virus worldwide and how many will die?

Well, the answer to the first question is probably the majority of humanity given that the virulence profile of this virus is essentially the same as the common cold.

The answer to the second question is not known for two reasons:

(1) There is a massive majority of confirmed cases that are in some kind of Schrodinger's cat state of neither recovered or dead. Which is becoming progressively more worrying given how long some of them have now been confirmed as having the virus.

(2) Even assuming that the majority of those who are confirmed as ill go on to eventually recover, it's worth pondering on the fact that these people are all in the medical system (which is why we know they are confirmed cases). And yet - still - they appear to be taking ages to recover - assuming they do eventually recover.

If and when this virus becomes fully pandemic in the world, the world's medical systems will collapse under the strain and, very quickly, anyone getting the virus will be literally on their own.

How many of those people will die?

It's going to be higher than 3%. Possibly quite a lot higher.

Post by **clv101** » 05 Feb 2020, 10:42

With SARs it took an average of 5 weeks from confirmation to death, 3 weeks to recover. We shouldn't really expect either a large number of deaths or recoveries yet.

They problem is the medical system caring for 10s of thousands of cases for several weeks. Hence the rapid build of new 'hospitals' and the conversion of sports stadiums and conference centers.

Post by **mikepepler** » 05 Feb 2020, 10:45

clv101 wrote:With SARs it took an average of 5 weeks from confirmation to death, 3 weeks to recover. We shouldn't really expect either a large number of deaths or recoveries yet.

They problem is the medical system caring for 10s of thousands of cases for several weeks. Hence the rapid build of new 'hospitals' and the conversion of sports stadiums and conference centers.

Have more than two hospitals been built in China for this, or other venues converted yet?

Post by **clv101** » 05 Feb 2020, 10:50

I've seen several videos of very large rooms filled with hundreds of beds, and apparently they are on their 2nd large prefab hospital.

Post by **mikepepler** » 05 Feb 2020, 10:55

clv101 wrote:I've seen several videos of very large rooms filled with hundreds of beds, and apparently they are on their 2nd large prefab hospital.

I'd been thinking that there would be a need to convert sports centres, etc. into hospital/quarantine facilities, and not just in China, once the numbers ramp up enough.

There's some useful graphs here, data collated from various sources:
https://wuflu.live/

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Feb 2020, 10:56

clv101 wrote:With SARs it took an average of 5 weeks from confirmation to death, 3 weeks to recover. We shouldn't really expect either a large number of deaths or recoveries yet.

They problem is the medical system caring for 10s of thousands of cases for several weeks. Hence the rapid build of new 'hospitals' and the conversion of sports stadiums and conference centers.

I would say we are rapidly approaching the point where recovery rate should start to increase dramatically or there is something wrong.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 05 Feb 2020, 13:20

On an oxygen machine at home "but can't go to a hospital because of lack of testing kits.":

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51379088

He's taking both Chinese and Western medicines at the moment. There's no hospital for him to go to because his case hasn't been confirmed due to the lack of testing kits.

My mum and aunt walk to the hospital every day in the hope of getting a bed for my dad despite their own health situation. But no hospital will take them.

Could not be clearer. Wuhan's medical system is completely overwhelmed. The only statistic that means anything is the number of deaths, and even that might be nonsense too.

Post by **mikepepler** » 05 Feb 2020, 14:18

Some interesting bits in this story about the cruise liner off Japan. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... t-positive

Of a further 273 people on board who have since been tested following health screenings, 31 results had come back â€“ and of those 10 were positive, according to Japanâ€™s health minister, Katsunobu Kato. It is not clear if more tests will be carried out.
...
The ship was prevented from leaving after it emerged that a Hong Kong resident in his 80s, tested positive for the virus last weekend after returning home on the vessel on 25 January. He had boarded the cruise liner at Yokohama on 20 January and joined a shore excursion in Kagoshima, southwestern Japan, on 22 January, local media reported. The patient visited mainland China for a few hours on 10 January and tested positive on 1 February, six days after leaving the ship.

So, this patient either caught it in Japan, and is thus another case of transmission within the country, or he caught it on China on 10 Jan, which would imply a very long period before symptoms emerged. Neither is a good conclusion I think!

Post by **adam2** » 05 Feb 2020, 14:32

The victim on the cruise ship might have caught the virus on board.
Latest reports state ten other passengers on the shop have tested positive.

Post by **mikepepler** » 05 Feb 2020, 14:41

adam2 wrote:The victim on the cruise ship might have caught the virus on board.
Latest reports state ten other passengers on the shop have tested positive.

True, possibly from someone with mild symptoms who has now left the ship and will never be tracked down...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Feb 2020, 15:30

F--k it, I'm investing in a second hand oxygen concentrator

Post by **adam2** » 05 Feb 2020, 16:17

I had an interesting conversation today with a recently retired doctor*.
He is of the opinion that the coronavirus is already circulating in the UK and will eventually spread widely.
But that with generally better health, nutrition, sanitation, and healthcare that the mortality rate will be low.

By "low mortality" he meant less than 1% in the UK as distinct from the 10% or more being reported overseas.

Note however that a mortality rate of 1% is still hundreds of thousands of lives in the UK lost in the initial spread, and perhaps an ongoing death toll broadly comparable to seasonal flue.

He expects that a vaccine will be developed, and give some protection. As it does with flue.

*Not a GP, but a medical researcher.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Feb 2020, 16:20

As it does with flue

I'm glad it's not just me that does that....

Post by **mikepepler** » 05 Feb 2020, 16:25

adam2 wrote:I had an interesting conversation today with a recently retired doctor*.

Did he have a view on the impact on the health service of a large number of people requiring some level of breathing support? That seems to be as much of a concern as the mortality rate.

Post by **adam2** » 05 Feb 2020, 16:35

Yes, he suggests the construction of emergency treatment centers, urging the use of tents for this purpose rather than fixed buildings, due to the ample ventilation and the open air between each tent.

He also mentioned a likely scarcity of oxygen cylinders, and was most interested in my suggestion that LIQUID oxygen is an alternative to portable cylinders when large volumes are needed.

He was also most interested in my suggestion that HMG should consider the use of holiday camps as being preferable to hotels. Again due to the open space between one chalet or caravan and the next.