https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/heal ... index.htmlThe patient -- a 35-year-old resident of Snohomish County, Washington, with no history of major health problems -- had returned from visiting family in Wuhan on January 15. He had not visited the seafood market where a number of early patients were initially linked, nor did he have any known contacts with sick people during his visit.
Still, the man had seen a health alert by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and decided to visit an urgent care clinic on January 19, at which point he had been coughing for four days.
New coronavirus in/from China
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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mikepepler
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Here's an account of one of the US cases, where a 35-year old with no prior health problems developed pneumonia and was hospitalised, but only after coughing for four days, presumably spreading the virus!
Little bit of information here (Google Translate)
https://news.sina.cn/gn/2020-02-01/deta ... 837.d.html
https://news.sina.cn/gn/2020-02-01/deta ... 837.d.html
If it takes 10 days to die, then the 259 deaths by 31st Jan came from the 440 cases up to 21st Jan. Mortality rate >50% (of cases confirmed)?...irst death in Chongqing was a woman, 62 years old, living in Huayan Town, Jiulongpo District, and was a restaurant waiter. On January 21, symptoms such as fever, dry cough, expectoration, muscle soreness, and chest tightness appeared. On January 29, he first visited the Jiulongpo Second Hospital. He had no history of life, travel or contact with Wuhan nationals. The patient was transferred to Jiulongpo District People's Hospital on January 30. On the same day, the patient was reported to have pneumonia suspected of a new coronavirus infection. Samples were sent to the district CDC for nucleic acid testing. The patient died after rescue at 7:35 on January 31.
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woodburner
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Oh come onclv101 wrote:Little bit of information here (Google Translate)
https://news.sina.cn/gn/2020-02-01/deta ... 837.d.html
If it takes 10 days to die, then the 259 deaths by 31st Jan came from the 440 cases up to 21st Jan. Mortality rate >50% (of cases confirmed)?...irst death in Chongqing was a woman, 62 years old, living in Huayan Town, Jiulongpo District, and was a restaurant waiter. On January 21, symptoms such as fever, dry cough, expectoration, muscle soreness, and chest tightness appeared. On January 29, he first visited the Jiulongpo Second Hospital. He had no history of life, travel or contact with Wuhan nationals. The patient was transferred to Jiulongpo District People's Hospital on January 30. On the same day, the patient was reported to have pneumonia suspected of a new coronavirus infection. Samples were sent to the district CDC for nucleic acid testing. The patient died after rescue at 7:35 on January 31.
you can’t just pluck figures out of the air like that, (unless you are a politician or pharmaceutical company). You really think the 440 cases were the only cases? There might have been thousands which went undiagnosed, and just sticking in “(of cases confirmed)� does not justify making it look like a claimed “>50%�.Where is the world wide pandemic of ebola, or zika, or even flu? Such implied suggestions were made at various times, and where are the huge numbers dying?
Just to get a bit of perspective, the number of reported deaths so far represent less that two day’s road death figures in the US, but not much is being done about that.
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
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woodburner
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adam2
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I witnessed a bit of a panic yesterday.
A man was observed to be "dead looking" on the pavement outside a supermarket. It looked horribly reminiscent of the well publicised video of the presumed coronavirus victim in China.
A child asked "should we cover him with a blanket, like they did in China" Someone else suggested that this would be "a waste of a blanket"
Some cautious poking with a stick suggested drunk and incapable rather than dead.
A man was observed to be "dead looking" on the pavement outside a supermarket. It looked horribly reminiscent of the well publicised video of the presumed coronavirus victim in China.
A child asked "should we cover him with a blanket, like they did in China" Someone else suggested that this would be "a waste of a blanket"
Some cautious poking with a stick suggested drunk and incapable rather than dead.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
You would like to think the NHS have stopped or reduced returning empty O2 cylinders and paid the supplier for a 'loss' so that the chain can build up a supply of empties for when the fan starts flicking. We might even see the continuous caster that is mothballed in Stocksbridge [for gas cylinder steel] reinstated. But there is no joined up thinking amongst the chosen few.
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Mean Mr Mustard II
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Guardian report -
Likewise, taking all those confirmed and treated abroad as another random sample - WHO indicate 132 - and now, the first death.
It seems unstoppable. As Chris highlighted with his latest online research, much now depends on understanding the prevalence and typical clinical course timing - incubation, symptomatic, confirmed, recovery or death.
This is possibly good news. So, of 203 on that flight, there were at least six cases. Including that one with a false negative(!) It's more evidence of widespread prevalence, 3% - and so, around 200000 mostly hopefully benign Chinese cases. On the other hand, the assumed 2% fatality rate suggests 4000 dead.Japan on Saturday confirmed an additional three cases among evacuees from Wuhan, including one, a man in his 40s, who initially tested negative, the health ministry said.
Likewise, taking all those confirmed and treated abroad as another random sample - WHO indicate 132 - and now, the first death.
It seems unstoppable. As Chris highlighted with his latest online research, much now depends on understanding the prevalence and typical clinical course timing - incubation, symptomatic, confirmed, recovery or death.
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Mean Mr Mustard II
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Mean Mr Mustard II
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Very useful piece here summarising numbers on board Asian repatriation flights - and apparent cases among them. I've worked up a spreadsheet logging all known evacuation flights.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/f ... na/1721274
Found so far - 2155 evacuees, of which 8 reported suspect (Bangladesh) and 13 confirmed (South Korea and Japan).
Assuming the suspect ones are later confirmed, that's 1% of the random population sample infected.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/f ... na/1721274
Found so far - 2155 evacuees, of which 8 reported suspect (Bangladesh) and 13 confirmed (South Korea and Japan).
Assuming the suspect ones are later confirmed, that's 1% of the random population sample infected.
Last edited by Mean Mr Mustard II on 02 Feb 2020, 10:14, edited 1 time in total.
https://news.yahoo.com/chinese-central- ... 02629.htmlChina's central bank said Sunday it would pump 1.2 trillion yuan ($173 bln) into the economy as it ramps up support for a nationwide fight against a deadly virus that is expected to hit growth.
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Little John
It's out now. All efforts to contain it will become progressively more pointless. At what point that becomes acknowledged as a fact on the ground is not yet clear. but, it will be pretty soon I reckon.
The next question for individuals is what are they going to do to protect themselves from getting it or, indeed, if there is any point in trying to do so. If, as seems to be the case, this virus is more or less the same as the common cold in term of virulence, then it seems to me that it is, as mentioned, impossible to contain and it is likely to be circulating for years. So, I am wondering if there is much point worrying about contracting it. Instead, an individual's best option might be to make sure they are stocked up on essential foods in case of food supply chains being interrupted due to a lot of people being ill at one. Also, have a supply of anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen) and oxygen on hand in case you need it when you get ill.
Other than that, get on with living.
The next question for individuals is what are they going to do to protect themselves from getting it or, indeed, if there is any point in trying to do so. If, as seems to be the case, this virus is more or less the same as the common cold in term of virulence, then it seems to me that it is, as mentioned, impossible to contain and it is likely to be circulating for years. So, I am wondering if there is much point worrying about contracting it. Instead, an individual's best option might be to make sure they are stocked up on essential foods in case of food supply chains being interrupted due to a lot of people being ill at one. Also, have a supply of anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen) and oxygen on hand in case you need it when you get ill.
Other than that, get on with living.