New coronavirus in/from China

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 16:00

Vortex2 wrote:Horrific report of the effects of the virus even on young people

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-me ... g-patients

Am I allowed to drop my British reserve for a moment and admit that I am scared?

No you must keep a stiff upper lip, stay calm and soldier on. Anything less frightens the women and children.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 16:08

Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd

"Latest figures released by China Mobile show that they have lost 8.116 million users in Jan and Feb. Where are these users now? Switched to other carriers? Or, they couldn't carry their phone to the nether world?"

Chinese report at: https://bit.ly/2QxDobi

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 17:10

Vortex2 wrote:Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd

"Latest figures released by China Mobile show that they have lost 8.116 million users in Jan and Feb. Where are these users now? Switched to other carriers? Or, they couldn't carry their phone to the nether world?"

Chinese report at: https://bit.ly/2QxDobi

Interesting way to get at the truth by bypassing the censorship.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 17:46

vtsnowedin wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd

"Latest figures released by China Mobile show that they have lost 8.116 million users in Jan and Feb. Where are these users now? Switched to other carriers? Or, they couldn't carry their phone to the nether world?"

Chinese report at: https://bit.ly/2QxDobi
Interesting way to get at the truth by bypassing the censorship.

That's what I told my wife too.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 18:00

Vortex2 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd

"Latest figures released by China Mobile show that they have lost 8.116 million users in Jan and Feb. Where are these users now? Switched to other carriers? Or, they couldn't carry their phone to the nether world?"

Chinese report at: https://bit.ly/2QxDobi
Interesting way to get at the truth by bypassing the censorship.
That's what I told my wife too.

Of course if your shut in you can't make the money to pay the cell phone bill so we will have to see how many come back once they are back to work.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 18:05

Another horrific video from Italy ..

One .. just one ... recovering ICU person .....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmEciVm-6Q

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 18:25

HMG report 5,018 new cases at 21 March

... my new improved algorithm yesterday's prediction was 5199.

(Value gets closer at 5128 when latest data point is added)

The exponential fit is very good at R^2 = .9984

It certainly seems to me that my latest regression algorithm matches the HMG version fairly closely.

One effect of the HMG reduction in testing plus my adoption of a more exact but less pessimistic algorithm is to extend the timescales by a couple of days.

FYI the number of infected (reported+hidden, time delayed) today probably stands at around 173k. In about a week this will be one million.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 21 Mar 2020, 18:55

Vortex2 wrote:Planning system

Maybe this mess will now allow us to spit in the faces of the unelected local planners.

We now need 'social distancing' as a way of life because we have discovered that pandemics are real and very damaging.

Instead of blocking the building of single houses in the countryside because they are 'isolated' we now need to encourage building of such houses specifically because they ARE 'isolated'.

Put that planning application in NOW, during the crisis, with that justification ... maybe you will get an unexpected approval!

Planning officers might be unelected but the councillors who vote for the policies which they enforce are elected and the councillors on the planning committee who ultimately allow or reject applications are elected by you. Also national planning policy is determined by MPs elected by you.

Isolated houses in the country are turned down because of the road traffic that they generate with their access requirements and also because of the cost of servicing them. Most isolated houses in the country contribute to global warming because they are occupied by townies who want to live in the country but still enjoy all the benefits of town living.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 19:04

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Planning system

Maybe this mess will now allow us to spit in the faces of the unelected local planners.

We now need 'social distancing' as a way of life because we have discovered that pandemics are real and very damaging.

Instead of blocking the building of single houses in the countryside because they are 'isolated' we now need to encourage building of such houses specifically because they ARE 'isolated'.

Put that planning application in NOW, during the crisis, with that justification ... maybe you will get an unexpected approval!
Planning officers might be unelected but the councillors who vote for the policies which they enforce are elected and the councillors on the planning committee who ultimately allow or reject applications are elected by you. Also national planning policy is determined by MPs elected by you.

Isolated houses in the country are turned down because of the road traffic that they generate with their access requirements and also because of the cost of servicing them. Most isolated houses in the country contribute to global warming because they are occupied by townies who want to live in the country but still enjoy all the benefits of town living.

I think that we will have to agree to differ. I have met far too many planning officers and far too many planning committee councillors to trust the system at all.

Post by **clv101** » 21 Mar 2020, 19:11

Vortex2 wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Planning system

Maybe this mess will now allow us to spit in the faces of the unelected local planners.

We now need 'social distancing' as a way of life because we have discovered that pandemics are real and very damaging.

Instead of blocking the building of single houses in the countryside because they are 'isolated' we now need to encourage building of such houses specifically because they ARE 'isolated'.

Put that planning application in NOW, during the crisis, with that justification ... maybe you will get an unexpected approval!
Planning officers might be unelected but the councillors who vote for the policies which they enforce are elected and the councillors on the planning committee who ultimately allow or reject applications are elected by you. Also national planning policy is determined by MPs elected by you.

Isolated houses in the country are turned down because of the road traffic that they generate with their access requirements and also because of the cost of servicing them. Most isolated houses in the country contribute to global warming because they are occupied by townies who want to live in the country but still enjoy all the benefits of town living.
I think that we will have to agree to differ. I have met far too many planning officers and far too many planning committee councillors to trust the system at all.

I have a lot of experience with the planning system in rural areas and its rife with corruption.

However, doubt this year is a good time for planning applications. Are planning officers working? All the other necessary consultees? Will planning committees even be sitting? Certainly won't be much enforcement activity. Local authorities are in a terrible position, appart from actual hospitals, they are the front line - with a significantly depleted workforce.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 19:39

Don't get too comfy - according to my data we are around 13 days behind Italy, if our special measures don't work.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Mar 2020, 19:47

Vortex2 wrote:HMG report 5,018 new cases at 21 March

... my new improved algorithm yesterday's prediction was 5199.

(Value gets closer at 5128 when latest data point is added)

The exponential fit is very good at R^2 = .9984

It certainly seems to me that my latest regression algorithm matches the HMG version fairly closely.

One effect of the HMG reduction in testing plus my adoption of a more exact but less pessimistic algorithm is to extend the timescales by a couple of days.

FYI the number of infected (reported+hidden, time delayed) today probably stands at around 173k. In about a week this will be one million.

Yep, mine was 5190. This is still following a curve that ultimately predicts a 70% infection peak by the end of April.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 20:00

Useful discussion on CFRs

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

Having seen those Italian videos it looks that not many walk out of the ICU ...

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 20:05

Little John wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:HMG report 5,018 new cases at 21 March

... my new improved algorithm yesterday's prediction was 5199.

(Value gets closer at 5128 when latest data point is added)

The exponential fit is very good at R^2 = .9984

It certainly seems to me that my latest regression algorithm matches the HMG version fairly closely.

One effect of the HMG reduction in testing plus my adoption of a more exact but less pessimistic algorithm is to extend the timescales by a couple of days.

FYI the number of infected (reported+hidden, time delayed) today probably stands at around 173k. In about a week this will be one million.
Yep, mine was 5190. This is still following a curve that ultimately predicts a 70% infection peak by the end of April.

My calcs show that coming a bit sooner .. around 22nd April .... but my new algorithm needs proving so yours may be nearer.
Anyway, we are only talking about one weeks difference to Armageddon.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Mar 2020, 20:38

UK CFR currently standing at 4.64%