New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 10:37

Reported data

The data I've been monitoring so far has an almost perfect exponential fit.

However I bet it will slow down ... not because of the success of counter measures .. but because of system overload.

New hospital cases will be lost in store rooms and corridors and people will suffer / die at home.

There is no way all of these will be in the official stats data .. thus giving a false impression of improvement.

On the other hand, there will be a big spike in reported cases when suddenly a stack of test kits are released.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Mar 2020, 10:40

UndercoverElephant wrote:Re: "Pulse" strategy.

I am not convinced there will ever be a second pulse, given the carnage of the first one. When people see how many cases end up in intensive care, and for how long - how many people lose a family member or friend - I'm not sure there will be any appetite for a second "pulse", especially if there's no guarantee that it will be the last one.

Also not sure where else this leads. Maybe a proper lockdown for a month or two. Maybe widespread civil disorder, threatening revolution.

What is the alternative to a pulsed strategy? so far as I can see, it is to let it rip and pick up the pieces after it has blown through. But, the mass of people would see that this was a deliberately policy to let far more of them die than needed to and that would lead to massive civil unrest and even the odd revolution or two. I have been having in depth conversations with proper ordinary common or garden "uneducated" working class people a lot over the last few days and they fully know the score now and what is at stake here.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Mar 2020, 10:42

Vortex2 wrote:Reported data

The data I've been monitoring so far has an almost perfect exponential fit.

However I bet it will slow down ... not because of the success of counter measures .. but because of system overload.

New hospital cases will be lost in store rooms and corridors and people will suffer / die at home.

There is no way all of these will be in the official stats data .. thus giving a false impression of improvement.

On the other hand, there will be a big spike in reported cases when suddenly a stack of test kits are released.

yep, the official data, thus far, looks a hell of a lot like an exponential curve to me. Any flattening of that curve needs to have started 10 days from now I would have thought

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 10:45

Little John wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Reported data

The data I've been monitoring so far has an almost perfect exponential fit.

However I bet it will slow down ... not because of the success of counter measures .. but because of system overload.

New hospital cases will be lost in store rooms and corridors and people will suffer / die at home.

There is no way all of these will be in the official stats data .. thus giving a false impression of improvement.

On the other hand, there will be a big spike in reported cases when suddenly a stack of test kits are released.
yep, the official data, thus far, looks a hell of a lot like an exponential curve to me. Any flattening of that curve needs to have started 10 days from now I would have thought

Yep - 0.99+ R^2 value for fit to an exponential.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:02

Awh the ever present desire to take from the rich and give to the poor. But how does that help in this case. The virus does not care how rich you are and being tested because you can afford it only tells you if you have it as there are no effective treatments for anybody rich or poor. Sure the rich will all get a ventilator if they need one but as they are the one percent and only the same proportion of them will need one they will take up only about half of a percent of the supply where the poor population will need thirty percent ventilation with only enough ventilators for half that. Take away every ventilator from the one percenters and push them out the windows and the next richest guy will grab it or some pompous bureaucrat will for his "critical family" and the poor still get nothing but a cot in the hallway to the morgue.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:04

vtsnowedin wrote:Awh the ever present desire to take from the rich and give to the poor. But how does that help in this case. The virus does not care how rich you are and being tested because you can afford it only tells you if you have it as there are no effective treatments for anybody rich or poor. Sure the rich will all get a ventilator if they need one but as they are the one percent and only the same proportion of them will need one they will take up only about half of a percent of the supply where the poor population will need thirty percent ventilation with only enough ventilators for half that. Take away every ventilator from the one percenters and push them out the windows and the next richest guy will grab it or some pompous bureaucrat will for his "critical family" and the poor still get nothing but a cot in the hallway to the morgue.

Who are you replying to?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:05

I do rather think (hope) that the glib 'Take It On The Chin' throwaway remark will finish off Boris if the Wu hasn't already nailed him at one of these increasingly dangerous press briefings.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ter-brexit

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:09

According to the sick map.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
The USA count jumped 5300 cases overnight. That puts it above the curve but is most assuredly just testing data finally coming in revealing that the base starting point was higher and earlier then reported.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:12

Vortex2 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Awh the ever present desire to take from the rich and give to the poor. But how does that help in this case. The virus does not care how rich you are and being tested because you can afford it only tells you if you have it as there are no effective treatments for anybody rich or poor. Sure the rich will all get a ventilator if they need one but as they are the one percent and only the same proportion of them will need one they will take up only about half of a percent of the supply where the poor population will need thirty percent ventilation with only enough ventilators for half that. Take away every ventilator from the one percenters and push them out the windows and the next richest guy will grab it or some pompous bureaucrat will for his "critical family" and the poor still get nothing but a cot in the hallway to the morgue.
Who are you replying to?

Sorry I should have started with UCE's quote.

An end to grotesque wealth inequality and massive regeneration of public services. Not looking good for the likes of you.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:19

To me a prepper puts away barrels of potatoes and other food and keeps enough guns ,ammunition and other means to protect that food and his family. A doomer expects civil and gang warfare and stocks up on guns but thinks he will prevail in the battles and will be able to eat the other sides food.
In the real world the prepper occasionally gets to use his food stocks as in the current crisis or after a hurricane. The doomers had better hope their fantasies never come to pass.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:30

vtsnowedin wrote:To me a prepper puts away barrels of potatoes and other food and keeps enough guns ,ammunition and other means to protect that food and his family. A doomer expects civil and gang warfare and stocks up on guns but thinks he will prevail in the battles and will be able to eat the other sides food.
In the real world the prepper occasionally gets to use his food stocks as in the current crisis or after a hurricane. The doomers had better hope their fantasies never come to pass.

I'm a proomer ... or should that read depper?

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:33

UndercoverElephant wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: Maybe widespread civil disorder, threatening revolution.
What will be the revolutionaries demands?
An end to grotesque wealth inequality and massive regeneration of public services. Not looking good for the likes of you.

So you will be forced to hand over the proceeds from the sale of your maisonette by the revolutionaries?

Or will organisers be exempt?

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 21 Mar 2020, 11:46

stumuz1 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
stumuz1 wrote: What will be the revolutionaries demands?
An end to grotesque wealth inequality and massive regeneration of public services. Not looking good for the likes of you.
So you will be forced to hand over the proceeds from the sale of your maisonette by the revolutionaries?

Or will organisers be exempt?

Organisers are always exempt. It's not a maisonette, it's a Dacha

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 12:25

boisdevie wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: An end to grotesque wealth inequality and massive regeneration of public services. Not looking good for the likes of you.
So you will be forced to hand over the proceeds from the sale of your maisonette by the revolutionaries?

Or will organisers be exempt?
Organisers are always exempt. It's not a maisonette, it's a Dacha

Ah, the Skoda Dacha. Great car - I've got the SUV version.

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 21 Mar 2020, 12:37

In breaking news delivery driver nicks bog rolls from shed.

My bog rolls, my shed. Had a few deliveries arrive yesterday so don't know which driver.
Have switched one of my bodyguards to bog roll security duty. It's getting real now.