New coronavirus in/from China

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:26

All I'm trying to model is the size and speed of the curve of infection of the epidemic and also the expected deaths based on the official numbers provided. I am bound to say, thus far, the number of cases each day is mapping onto an unrestricted exponential curve of infection. Indeed, I keep having to revise my model slightly upwards in the light of the data each day.

If we are going to see any beneficial effect on that curve of Johnson's measures, they need to start appearing by, say, 10 days from now. If not, then it's all over in terms of mitigation and we are into the eye of a hurricane

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:28

Vortex2 wrote:
250k is in 2.5 days time.

Tsk. There's me rushing ahead and assuming the worst again.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:31

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
250k is in 2.5 days time.

Tsk. There's me rushing ahead and assuming the worst again.

By the end of next week sadly it will all be academic anyway ...

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:37

I think that we need an Ice Cold In Alex ending for all those posting here.

I suggest that any survivors of this horror meet up here for a virtual cold beer on Mothering Sunday 2021.

Put the date in your calendar!

For those of you who don't turn up we will raise a glass to you!

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:44

Northwick Park crisis was yesterday. Now over. Either someone recovered or died

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:45

PS_RalphW wrote:Northwick Park crisis was yesterday. Now over. Either someone recovered or died

Just wait two days ...

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:45

PS_RalphW wrote:Northwick Park crisis was yesterday. Now over. Either someone recovered or died

Phew. Was Rather Concerned for a moment there.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:46

HMG: 3,983 cases as at 20 March

My improved regression yesterday predicted 4,187 which is within 5% which keeps me happy.

My improved regression using today's data 'predicted' 4,106 which is even better.

R*R = .9976

So still a perfectly exponential climb ....

It's interesting to see how some fitting algorithms seem to do well whilst others are only sort of OK.

Post by **adam2** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:48

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Remember the training exercise scaffold / tarp structures Adam heard about a few weeks back? Those would be the morgues on the airfields and Army camps.

Indeed, or possibly field hospitals.
The armed forces hold stocks of tents and marquees, and civilian supplies can be hired or requisitioned in emergency.
However in a large scale disaster supplies might be insufficient, hence the need to experiment and practice in use of alternatives.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 20 Mar 2020, 18:06

Vortex2 wrote:I think that we need an Ice Cold In Alex ending for all those posting here.

I suggest that any survivors of this horror meet up here for a virtual cold beer on Mothering Sunday 2021.

Put the date in your calendar!

For those of you who don't turn up we will raise a glass to you!

A fair few of us have already met in 'meatspace' and we should plan on doing that - emerging from our bunkers, once all vaccinated, whenever that is.

We could maybe even discuss Peak Oil, just like in the old days.

Some levity -

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -weird-now

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ary-before

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/ ... -isolation

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -the-world

Post by **adam2** » 20 Mar 2020, 18:10

Pubs, bars, restaurants, and cafes are required to close from tonight Friday 20/03/2020.

It is implied that this is from midnight. The PM has appealed for people "not to go out tonight" which implies that pubs ARE allowed to open until midnight tonight.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 20 Mar 2020, 18:32

Little John wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:With no real numbers to work with we can jump right into wild A$$&# guesses.
Lets say that the real numbers are about two weeks behind actual cases in the field and that things will progress along the same infection curve as the rest of the world is experiencing. So in two weeks you will officially know how many UK citizens are walking around infected today and that number will be around 160,000.
By the same WAG work and logic the US probably has about 665,000 infected and out and about at present.
I was looking, today, at your country's numbers V.

Given that 5% of people infected need ICU and, in it's absence, basically die, 5% of 70% (assumed infection total) of your country's population is 16.3 million. Even if only half of that number die, that is a bit biblical.

11.5 million using your numbers but yes that is possible or even the current ten percent fatality rate in Italy but that is probably due to differences in counting and progression of the pandemic. But on a per-capita basis your situation is just as bad.
Best of luck one and all. Stay home stay safe. Don't spread it.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 20 Mar 2020, 18:34

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/0 ... l-m20.html

Latest from the WSWS. Utterly grim reading.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Mar 2020, 18:50

vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:With no real numbers to work with we can jump right into wild A$$&# guesses.
Lets say that the real numbers are about two weeks behind actual cases in the field and that things will progress along the same infection curve as the rest of the world is experiencing. So in two weeks you will officially know how many UK citizens are walking around infected today and that number will be around 160,000.
By the same WAG work and logic the US probably has about 665,000 infected and out and about at present.
I was looking, today, at your country's numbers V.

Given that 5% of people infected need ICU and, in it's absence, basically die, 5% of 70% (assumed infection total) of your country's population is 16.3 million. Even if only half of that number die, that is a bit biblical.
11.5 million using your numbers but yes that is possible or even the current ten percent fatality rate in Italy but that is probably due to differences in counting and progression of the pandemic. But on a per-capita basis your situation is just as bad.
Best of luck one and all. Stay home stay safe. Don't spread it.

Oh yes indeed, it is just as bad here.

In both countries, capitalism is proving itself to be utterly useless in the face of an existential threat. Johnson, it would seem, is acknowledging that fact slightly faster than Trump and is now enacting significant socialist measures. Which is quite hilarious to witness to be honest.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 20 Mar 2020, 18:56

Sad part is that the socialist measures both countries are rushing to put in place will also fail at stopping the virus which can't read political doctrine and cares not how you voted. Only evolution and survival of the fittest will finally bring this virus down to a level we can deal with as like all pathogens it is environmentally unwise to kill all your hosts before you have reproduced and moved on to the next host.