New coronavirus in/from China

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 20 Mar 2020, 13:35

Who would be in favour of HMG using phone data to fight the virus?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 20 Mar 2020, 14:10

stumuz1 wrote:Who would be in favour of HMG using phone data to fight the virus?

Mine's switched off (or with the battery out) left at home, and I stay indoors anyway. Other than out avoiding other dog walkers. When it's not raining. So yeah, why not.

I'd feel a lot less on edge if I knew it was right here, and to what extent, rather than this having to assume the worst. Like it became more visible. Not ten day old partial hospitalised numbers garbage. But even then, who's going to fess up to being possibly symptomatic on their phone... If only there was an app for it, which sent an alert to all nearby if the user hadn't tested negative in the past six hours.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 20 Mar 2020, 16:05

Northwick Park hospital in Harrow has run out of critical beds and declared critical incident

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Mar 2020, 16:11

PS_RalphW wrote:Northwick Park hospital in Harrow has run out of critical beds and declared critical incident

Poo .. the first canary ...

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 20 Mar 2020, 16:24

Vortex2 wrote:It's very quite here ... what's everyone doing?

Just finished TB testing and we had one animal test positive so our cattle are locked down as well as us. We have five owners of cattle on Greenham Common and are herds are all treated as one so the failure of one of my animals affects all of us. Three of us are over 70, one is in his 60s and two smoke like a chimney so we will have to come out of self isolation in six weeks time to join our vet and test all the animals again. The vet travels around farms, many of which are run by oldies so I'm not sure where coronavirus restrictions will come into that mix. None of us has anyone working for us so we have to do the work ourselves and keeping 2m apart is not possible. We'll have to ask the Ministry what they want us to do. I've also got to arrange an isolation pen for the cow, which is due to calve in the next two weeks in the hope that the Ministry will allow the animal time to calve before they shoot it on site as it can't be moved in its current state.

Tomorrow I will be planting potatoes, onions and salad leaves among other things in the garden and attempting to keep 2m away from my daughter and her family. We might also split and stack some more wood for next winter. We have hopefully got just enough to last the rest of this winter/spring.

I've also got a couple of extension design jobs to finish off and get paid for just in case one of us, me or the client, kicks the bucket. I've also got invoices to work out for two long standing jobs to get the money in for the same reason.

All this while reading what must be the most prolific thread ever on this forum.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 20 Mar 2020, 16:34

PS_RalphW wrote:Northwick Park hospital in Harrow has run out of critical beds and declared critical incident

...and so it begins.....

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Mar 2020, 16:41

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:Northwick Park hospital in Harrow has run out of critical beds and declared critical incident
...and so it begins.....

Colorado will be there too in due course ....

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 20 Mar 2020, 16:49

V2, LJ,

Can either of you please offer up an estimate of total cases based on the recent trends? If it was actually 150k a few days ago I'm guessing 250k now?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Mar 2020, 16:53

If you mean the true case count as of today as opposed to the recorded one, I have no idea.

The nearest estimate I could offer would be shit loads

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Mar 2020, 16:58

PS_RalphW wrote:Northwick Park hospital in Harrow has run out of critical beds and declared critical incident

They will be falling over like skittles in the coming days and weeks

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:06

With no real numbers to work with we can jump right into wild A$$&# guesses.
Lets say that the real numbers are about two weeks behind actual cases in the field and that things will progress along the same infection curve as the rest of the world is experiencing. So in two weeks you will officially know how many UK citizens are walking around infected today and that number will be around 160,000.
By the same WAG work and logic the US probably has about 665,000 infected and out and about at present.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:10

The nearest estimate I could offer would be shit loads

Ye Shite Loade being one of those old medieval rough approximation measures. Always thought it was a weight / volume kind of thing rather than a number, but certainly close enough for what passes as Government work now.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:17

Remember the training exercise scaffold / tarp structures Adam heard about a few weeks back? Those would be the morgues on the airfields and Army camps.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:19

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:V2, LJ,

Can either of you please offer up an estimate of total cases based on the recent trends? If it was actually 150k a few days ago I'm guessing 250k now?

My revised model is showing 145k total today ... which now appears to roughly match HMG's guess. Also is close to VT's estimate.

250k is in 2.5 days time.

(I'll recheck my model later today. I am now using what seems to be a more accurate ... and a tad less pessimistic - regression algorithm)

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Mar 2020, 17:20

vtsnowedin wrote:With no real numbers to work with we can jump right into wild A$$&# guesses.
Lets say that the real numbers are about two weeks behind actual cases in the field and that things will progress along the same infection curve as the rest of the world is experiencing. So in two weeks you will officially know how many UK citizens are walking around infected today and that number will be around 160,000.
By the same WAG work and logic the US probably has about 665,000 infected and out and about at present.

I was looking, today, at your country's numbers V.

Given that 5% of people infected need ICU and, in it's absence, basically die, 5% of 70% (assumed infection total) of your country's population is 16.3 million. Even if only half of that number die, that is a bit biblical.