New coronavirus in/from China

[Little John]

Anyone watch the drivel being uttered by Johnson this evening?

Total lack of leadership, no coherent strategy, trying to simultaneously tell people not to spread the disease while refusing to close the pubs, clubs and restaurants. Makes no sense whatsoever.

There's two viable strategies. One is to let the disease run and get it over with, and the other is to clamp down hard on all unnecessary social contact and try to suppress the epidemic. Faced with this choice, Johnson has chosen neither. This will result in the worst possible outcome, which is to extend the epidemic in time while doing almost nothing to reduce the fatalities. He's increasing the economic damage with no overall gain.

What a useless waste of space. Now I wish we had Theresa May back.

I agree. Of the four options he could have taken

1) total lock down and pulsed release (my preferred solution)

2) total lock down and attempt at eradication (wont work due to re-infection from outside)

3) allow unrestricted infection and get it over with (politically unthinkable due to the massive death count)

4) try and manage a middle way all the way through the infection (almost impossible to calibrate correctly)

He has chosen option 4. And I can't see how this can result in anything other than essentially getting something approaching option 3 by default, just over a slightly longer timescale, if at all.

[Vortex2]

UK 144 deaths

4.5% CFR (not time adjusted) based on 3229 cases

[Little John]

UK 144 deaths

4.5% CFR (not time adjusted)

F--k me

[Vortex2]

UK 144 deaths

4.5% CFR (not time adjusted)

F--k me

Have we been introduced?

[Vortex2]

UK 144 deaths

4.5% CFR (not time adjusted)

F--k me

The deaths come from a time of a smaller infected population ... which suggests a higher true rate.

[Little John]

UK 144 deaths

4.5% CFR (not time adjusted)

F--k me

Have we been introduced?

[Vortex2]

France has 10,995 cases, with 1,122 people in a serious condition.

It is estimated France has around 5,000 beds equipped with the necessary gear but these are unevenly spread around the country.

(from the Mirror)

4000 spare beds? No problem.

Oh, but at a doubling every two days that means that they will all be in use in four days.

After that ... where will the sick go?

(This situation coming to a country near you soon)

[kenneal - lagger]

After a marathon read to catch up I have a few points on what has been said.

Off topic, I can't see what people don't like the 1947 Planning Act. Without it we would have, by now, continuous lines of houses and businesses along all our roads between towns, the ribbon development of the 1930s and 40s that preceded the Act. Yes the bureaucracy can be annoying at times, and I have to deal with it in my work so I know more about that than most people here, but in general it has produced a much better country to live in that the unrestricted development that came before.

Regarding the Building Regulations, we would still be living with uninsulated single skin houses if it weren't for the Building Regs. Gordon Brown asked builders to build better insulated houses and they just didn't hear him. The Building Regs impose the minimum standard for house building and it is also the maximum standard as well. No Regs and the standard would drop immediately. You just have to compare current space standards with the, now defunct, Parker Morris standards to see how houses have shrunk since that standard was abolished. A four bed current house is a damn sight smaller than a 70s three bed house and you could fit a current five bed house into some 70s three bed houses.

RE global undimming, we could just as likely have ever wetter weather with more summer flooding as we could have a drought. Warming increases the moisture in the air which increases rainfall. If the past autumn and winter carries on into the spring we will have food shortages as the vast acreage that was too wet to plant winter grain into becomes the vast acreage that summer grain can't be planted into. With possibly more extreme weather worldwide caused by undimming, food production throughout the world could be affected and the possibility of food production and distribution being affected by corvid 19 only adds to the possibility of food shortages.

Because of that I went out and bought a 25 kg bag of feed wheat for just over £7 and a 20 kg bag of crushed oats for £6 in case there is a shortage of grain in the autumn. I suppose I should have bought a bag of barley as well in case I have to make my own beer as well as bread and porridge. If the food shortages don't happen I will feed it to my chickens and cattle instead. I shall try home ground porridge in the morning.

The timing of the outbreak couldn't have been better really because there are food stocks available now and summer is coming so people with gardens can ramp up their production, if they have any sense, using non hybrid seed so that they can feed themselves over the next year and save some seed if necessary for next year. Also there are very palatable nettles growing at the moment in my garden as well as chickweed and fat hen so I won't be short of greens.

If the locusts do come they dry very nicely into a high protein crisp I am told.

And about the US outbidding us for the world's food crop, China is probably in a good position to our bid them.

[Vortex2]

Someone doesn't understand the exponential function ...

Coco The Clown says he can "turn the tide" regarding coronavirus in 12 weeks.

Err ... in 12 weeks the country will be a charnel house at the current rate of infection.

The lock-down really does need to work.

[kenneal - lagger]

Someone doesn't understand the exponential function ...

As I said earlier the government is advised by economists and they have no comprehension of the exponential function. Hence their acceptance of the possibility of continuous growth in a finite environment and their advise to limit economic harm before controlling the spread of the virus.

[Vortex2]

Off topic, I can't see what people don't like the 1947 Planning Act. Without it we would have, by now, continuous lines of houses and businesses along all our roads between towns, the ribbon development of the 1930s and 40s that preceded the Act. Yes the bureaucracy can be annoying at times, and I have to deal with it in my work so I know more about that than most people here, but in general it has produced a much better country to live in that the unrestricted development that came before.

Still off topic.

There was an anti-ribbon-development act which came out in the 30s.

The 1947 Act was IIRC intended to ensure that farmers continued to use land to produce food post-war.

Then came the food mountains, so the Act segued to protect the countryside against poor people who might have wanted to pollute our fair villages.

It's now an abomination used to ensure the countryside stays the domain of the white middle classes and the rich.

Many reports and books have confirmed this - I have read most of them - but nothing changes.

[clv101]

This is good, has the NHS capacity line drawn accuratly:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -lockdown/

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Was it on these very pages that it was noted that Boris was looking a bit ragged these days? A bit under par?

But he's he's still up for the crowded Westminster press conferences with all those hacks who presumably understand the exponential function too.

[UndercoverElephant]

The lock-down really does need to work.

What lock-down?

[Vortex2]

This is good, has the NHS capacity line drawn accuratly:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -lockdown/

So does this indicate that the NHS will be blasted whatever happens?