New coronavirus in/from China

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Mar 2020, 23:45

Newsnight just announced 20,000 armed forces personnel now preparing to take part in the operation to contain this virus.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Mar 2020, 23:46

Vortex2 wrote:One thing is clear - there WILL be a vaccine soon enough.

Current society is strong enough to design, test and produce vaccines.

Some viruses defy all attempts to produce a vaccine. HIV for example.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Mar 2020, 23:48

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
eatyourveg wrote:Daughter getting out of London, right now. Not waiting. It's going to be locked down very quickly in her opinion.

If she is right then yup, it's another world here right now.
Maybe I'm just tired. But all this pifflewaffle Boris bollo quoted here simply didn't register at all.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... r-measures
Then re-read... Your daughter is wise to get out, maybe she read clearly between the Pifflewaffle lines. As long as she then self isolates. The true London figure must be 50k going by the 1/3 share of confirmed, applied to the 150k Vortex estimate.

The hesitation is the London centric elite actually considering protecting the rest of us beyond the M25.

Yep, London is the latest Wuhan.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Mar 2020, 23:49

Catweazle wrote:
Seriously though, now this virus is in circulation isn't it likely to mutate and pop up again regularly ?

Nobody knows.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Mar 2020, 23:59

Catweazle wrote:We'll cure this just like we cured Flu and the common cold.

Seriously though, now this virus is in circulation isn't it likely to mutate and pop up again regularly ?

I would guess it is likely to, yes.

Though, and this is also a guess, I would have thought that herd immunity to the original one will, thereafter, give partial immunity to any future variants and so, although not pleasant, those future variants will no longer have the devastating effects of the original novel one

leroy · Post by **leroy** » 19 Mar 2020, 00:02

clv101 wrote:20 kg of grain is around Â£6 at our local feed place. Looks fine? If fit for animal feed can't see why I couldn't mill it and bake with it? ...if I had a mill.

At least it can be diverted by the government and repurposed. Continued supplies of bread and a glut of cheap meat on the shelves would be a consequence.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Mar 2020, 00:12

Little John wrote: Though, and this is also a guess, I would have thought that herd immunity to the original one will, thereafter, give partial immunity to any future variants and so, although not pleasant, those future variants will no longer have the devastating effects of the original novel one

It doesn't work like that. One mutation in a virus can cause the proteins on its surface to be a completely different shape. That in turn makes the anti-bodies for the old strain completely useless - from their point of view, it might as well be a completely different virus. The body has to learn to recognise the new shape from scratch, and the effect of the virus can be exactly the same - it is just wearing a new disguise.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Mar 2020, 00:25

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote: Though, and this is also a guess, I would have thought that herd immunity to the original one will, thereafter, give partial immunity to any future variants and so, although not pleasant, those future variants will no longer have the devastating effects of the original novel one
It doesn't work like that. One mutation in a virus can cause the proteins on its surface to be a completely different shape. That in turn makes the anti-bodies for the old strain completely useless - from their point of view, it might as well be a completely different virus. The body has to learn to recognise the new shape from scratch, and the effect of the virus can be exactly the same - it is just wearing a new disguise.

In which case, (a) how come when a devastating new virus comes on the scene, it does not keep mutating until it kills all available hosts and (b) why is the 1918 virus not still killing us in the millions?

All other things being equal, deadly viruses tend to evolve to less deadly forms. I am happy to admit I do not know the finer details of the biological processes by which that occurs. But, I can say I understand the underlying evolutionary imperatives that lead to such an outcome.

leroy · Post by **leroy** » 19 Mar 2020, 00:30

Nicely put Steve. While I have always valued this forum for its candour, we do need to keep the flame of hope alive, even here.

mr brightside · Post by **mr brightside** » 19 Mar 2020, 04:34

UndercoverElephant wrote:
mr brightside wrote: I agree this is going to hurt our financial system, but i can't help thinking if we had just kept calm and carried on the damage could have been limited.
That's what Boris Johnson also thought, it seems. Not any more.

Question- what are your thoughts concerning looting?
Very likely, as is the army on the streets to prevent it.

Good, i was unimpressed with the response to it after that guy was shot.

I'd like to thank everyone for entertaining me again, it must be quite a disruption to hear how i talk. I always come to PS to get a balanced view of crises, balance is important to me because i believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle between my feeding the right wolf and a Powerswitcher's unswerving focus on worst case scenarios. I'm glad to see we're all preparing, just in completely different ways, i can confidently say we're going to get through this.

Post by **adam2** » 19 Mar 2020, 05:11

eatyourveg wrote:Daughter getting out of London, right now. Not waiting. It's going to be locked down very quickly in her opinion.

If she is right then yup, it's another world here right now.

Sensible IMHO.

BTW, a partial shutdown of the tube has just been announced.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51946409

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Mar 2020, 06:57

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote: Though, and this is also a guess, I would have thought that herd immunity to the original one will, thereafter, give partial immunity to any future variants and so, although not pleasant, those future variants will no longer have the devastating effects of the original novel one
It doesn't work like that. One mutation in a virus can cause the proteins on its surface to be a completely different shape. That in turn makes the anti-bodies for the old strain completely useless - from their point of view, it might as well be a completely different virus. The body has to learn to recognise the new shape from scratch, and the effect of the virus can be exactly the same - it is just wearing a new disguise.
In which case, (a) how come when a devastating new virus comes on the scene, it does not keep mutating until it kills all available hosts

Devastating new pathogens only appear very rarely (especially completely novel ones like this - not even a strain of an existing disease). When they do appear, they can wipe out most of their hosts. Frequently in these cases, a small number of the host species is naturally resistant. That doesn't mean they naturally have antibodies, but they have some way of being less susceptible to the way the virus operates, and that will be true even if the virus changes its disguise. This can eventually change the genome of the host species, which often in turn causes new genetic diseases. It happened in humans, for example, in order to resist pneumonic plague (not a virus, but the same principle applies). A small minority of humans had a mutation which, when they only had one copy of the mutation, made their lungs less efficient, but also much less susceptible to pneumonic plague. These individuals and their descendents were the ones who survived when plague ravaged their towns and villages. There was a downside though -- the mutation became much more common, and people who had two copies of the gene developed a horrible genetic disease we call cystic fibrosis. Before the plague, CF didn't exist. Sickle-cell anaemia is another example, in that case one copy of the mutant gene provides resistance to malaria.

and (b) why is the 1918 virus not still killing us in the millions?

It didn't mutate in the right way for its own survival, and died out. It's extinct in the wild.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Mar 2020, 07:36

That's a very interesting point about the pneumonic plague. I didn't know that.

On the other point - yes, I guess it's possible, in rare exremis, to very nearly wipe out a host population

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... the-aztecs

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 19 Mar 2020, 08:20

Vortex2 wrote:JOB VACANCY - WORCESTERSHIRE

I am looking for willing workers who are fit and tough.

Candidates will preferably have black leather jackets and their own weapons - ideally firearms.

A motorbike will be provided for all successful applicants.

Please clearly mark all applications with "MAD MAX MIDLANDS"

As a caring equal opportunity employer, applications from the halt and lame are also most welcome, for whom suitable adaptations will be provided per equality regs, such as sidecars with heavy machine gun mounts.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 19 Mar 2020, 09:03

Corona virus crisis: left-wing extremists call for looting

https://www.en24.news/a/2020/03/corona- ... itics.html