Relocalisers bopped by Stuart Staniford (TOD)

[Adam1]

It isn't just the percentage of the energy supply used by agriculture and the relative financial cost of mechanisation that will determine how things unfold; in many parts of the the US, e.g. California, and, closer to home, southern Spain, it's water.

I thought we were talking about the UK, not anywhere else.

I was thinking globally and about the UK, as we get a lot of our winter produce from places like southern Spain.

Also, the mechanised farm is likely to experience systemic failures. The equipment requires specialists and spares to maintain them. Energy inputs for irrigation need to be timely. The timing of these types of failures are hard to predict.

I beg to differ about the "specialisation" part. The BTEC ND in Agriculture (as offered by Sparsholt College, Hampshire. 2 years, full time) covers Principles of Machinery and Machinery Operations.

Then there's the C&G NC in Agriculture (1 year full time) that covers Tractor Operation and Maintenance, Machinery Operation and Machinery Maintenance. As well as Health and Safety Certificate, FEPA (spraying) Certificate and a Rough Terrain Fork-lift Certificate.

And finally for the full time courses, there's Land-based Mechanisation: BTEC ND in Land-based Technology (2 years full time).

As for spares, there shouldn't be any shortage of those for years and canibalisation will add to that length as well.

I was thinking more about the industries that mechanised agriculture depends on. Manufacturing and maintaining agricultural equipment, for example, requires some specialisation. But you may be right. I just feel it's a risk factor. I don't know how high-tech the different mech-ag inputs are.

Because it produces large surpluses, big, mechanised agriculture, even if it continues to work as now for some time, needs lots of other infrastructure to be intact, in particular, the electrical grid and the warehouse-on-wheels food distribution system. Given the state of the grid here in the UK....

True, but I have a feeling that's one thing HMG will make sure works for as long as possible. Especially the distribution side of things. Not sure about the grid though, they'd probably have to renationalise that the same way they did with Railtrack.

Yeah, I guess, after a few big blackouts and a couple of Royal Commissions, HMG might start realising how vulnerable the distribution system is.

Lots of people need to reskill and relocate. All the just-in-time infrastructure and the mentality that goes with it need to be "re-configured".

This is as usual overstated. How long does it take people to gen up on something "new"?

I'd be very impressed if the UK turns things around as quickly as Cuba managed.

[chris25]

Chris, you are comfortable and well off, and live in the city. You probably don't have a feel for how fragile and desparate some peoples lives are in this country.

I've lived in the countryside all my life. I've seen super-mega rich land owners, I've seen poorer farm labours been chucked out of their homes. Where the heck did that statement come from? Im not even arguing against you and I agree with your comments!

Errrr.... he was talking to the other Chris clv101.... and relax....

My apoligies

[syberberg]

I was thinking globally and about the UK, as we get a lot of our winter produce from places like southern Spain.

I don't think there's any real point in thinking globally about this, so what if the irrigation finally goes tits up in California? It's not as if that's going to have any noticeable effect upon my life, or any one else's in the UK (except for a lack of Californian plonk for those that drink it, that is ). As for Spain, well once the tourism dries up (no pun intended), the demands for domestic water will fall, how much of an effect that will have, I don't know.

I was thinking more about the industries that mechanised agriculture depends on. Manufacturing and maintaining agricultural equipment, for example, requires some specialisation. But you may be right. I just feel it's a risk factor. I don't know how high-tech the different mech-ag inputs are.

Maintaining ag-mech is no more specialised than any other type of machinery, except perhaps helicopters and jets. A diesel engine, is a diesel engine regardless of size. Keeping the various machanised equipment isn't that difficult either. As for the supply and creation of parts, well people managed before we had a glut of energy and they'll manage again. More and more bits and pieces will have to be hand-forged rather than via the automated processes now used.

Yeah, I guess, after a few big blackouts and a couple of Royal Commissions, HMG might start realising how vulnerable the distribution system is.

<wry chuckle> You may have a point there. However, when it comes to food distribution, I think HMG will be forced to act quickly.

Lots of people need to reskill and relocate. All the just-in-time infrastructure and the mentality that goes with it need to be "re-configured".

This is as usual overstated. How long does it take people to gen up on something "new"?

I'd be very impressed if the UK turns things around as quickly as Cuba managed.[/quote]

Personally, I don't think we'll have a sudden and catastrophic collapse, more like a gradual transition with the odd jump here and there. It's just simply not in the interests of government and the supermarkets etc., to let the whole edifice collapse overnight. IMHO, of course.

[clv101]

I've lived in the countryside all my life. I've seen super-mega rich land owners, I've seen poorer farm labours been chucked out of their homes. Where the heck did that statement come from? Im not even arguing against you and I agree with your comments!

Errrr.... he was talking to the other Chris clv101.... and relax....

My apoligies

I think it's SunnyJim who should be apologising... I didn't really appreciate that sort of comment from someone who knows next to nothing about me.

[Vortex]

Chris, you are comfortable and well off, and live in the city.

Harrumph. I didn't know that you were one of THAT sort, Christopher.

If I had, I would have cut you dead at the EI Depletion events.

Cad & bounder.

[Smithy]

Amazing how the article reaches this statement and then goes off on one:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3481

I have to say that I really don't like the sound of "at a forced pace, backed by the full resources of national governments".

That Mendocino could not feed itself is surely evidence concerning the carrying capacity of the earth.

He goes on about reversible processes and then comes out with:

So when you industrialize a society, is that a reversible process? Can you take it on a backward path to a de-industrialized society that looks in the important ways like the society you had before the industrialization?

Instead, I'm making an argument that society is unlikely to reverse its trajectory of development, regardless of what we might like.

I would say that reversal is not the issue, hence the article doesn't really add anything and is in fact a distration:

Calls for it to do so are a distraction and get in the way of figuring out what we really need to be doing, and what the real options and dangers are.

Based on his poor writing so far, at that point I gave up

[biffvernon]

However, Stuart Staniford is making some very worthy points.

Half way down the comments, Boomy says

The lumping together of all farms and farmers together must give unreliable conclusions in many areas.

As one who once spent a day threshing wheat with a hand flail, I am well aware of the limitations of manual labour. I really can't see cereals ever being usefully grown without big machinery. It is a very different situation with a lot of fruit and veg.

[Adam1]

To me, the difference between Stuart Staniford and the "reversalists" is that Staniford wants us to act to maintain society at its current level of complexity, i.e. avoid a collapse, and the "reversalists" accept that collapse is unavoidable and therefore the best thing to do is to "manage the collapse". Managing the collapse is what Transition Towns is all about.

Staniford seems to be restricting his analysis to the effects of higher fossil fuel prices. The "reversalists" are looking beyond high prices to physical shortages. As has been said here before, the two will create problems that are whole orders of magnitude different in scale.

syberberg - you may be right that we will be able to keep agricultural machinery going longer than I implied. The truth is that it is difficult to say exactly how we will cope. It will depend on how fast the energy supply contracts and on how effective our responses are. However, given the implications if our food system crashes, I think it's wise to make things as resilient as possible.

The reason I said that I'd be very impressed if we cope as well as Cuba was not because I think we definitely will have a rapid 50%+ reduction in fossil fuel supply like the one Cuba experienced. It was because the Cubans are almost certainly a lot better at making do and fixing things than we are. They have many decades' experience making do, fixing and patching up.

[syberberg]

syberberg - you may be right that we will be able to keep agricultural machinery going longer than I implied. The truth is that it is difficult to say exactly how we will cope. It will depend on how fast the energy supply contracts and on how effective our responses are. However, given the implications if our food system crashes, I think it's wise to make things as resilient as possible.

I'm a 100% with you on that one. It's why I don't want to see biodiesel going to private motorists first. It's an utterly frivolous waste if you ask me. Thing is, I've got a sneaking suspicion what we'll actually see is the complete opposite due to politics.

[Vortex]

It's why I don't want to see biodiesel going to private motorists first. It's an utterly frivolous waste if you ask me.
Good point. We should try to get the farms energy self sufficient first.
It would be great to see a farm's equipment being operated off a percentage of the crops it grows.

[Adam1]

Sharon Astyk puts the counter argument on TOD.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3541

[Adam1]

All other things being equal, the industrial vs. small-scale pattern is unlikely to play out the same here in the UK as it may do in the US. See this report from Rob Hopkins on his recent experience in Cornwall.

[syberberg]

Adam1 (and anyone else living in London), can you ever see a point when the Mayor of London orders the large parks (Hyde, Regent's, Victoria) to be turned into allotments? Will it be timely or will s/he wait until the last minute for fear of upsetting the dog walkers and just tinker at the edges with roof gardens and smaller areas of land/digging up car/retail parks (probably waiting until they've become closed/surplus to requirements)?

[biffvernon]

The Royal Parks weren't dug up in World War II. And despite everyone digging for victory plenty of domestic lawns and roses rurvived. But then the war only lasted a few years.

[Adam1]

Adam1 (and anyone else living in London), can you ever see a point when the Mayor of London orders the large parks (Hyde, Regent's, Victoria) to be turned into allotments? Will it be timely or will s/he wait until the last minute for fear of upsetting the dog walkers and just tinker at the edges with roof gardens and smaller areas of land/digging up car/retail parks (probably waiting until they've become closed/surplus to requirements)?

I'm not sure that it'll be Ken ordering it, more likely central government, but it's quite probable, maybe inevitable, at some point in the future.

My local MP, Diane Abbott, who BTW hasn't responded to my APPGOPO/Crude Awakening invite, was out canvassing local opinion out on the street on how to scrape our awful local one-way system. There are two options, one of which would involve removing a stretch of road running through "Stoke Newington Common" - a reasonably-sized piece of green that could produce some food. I said I thought that, due to the imminent decline in the global production of oil, the one-way system would become redundant and that we'd need the space to grow food. She nodded knowingly/politely but clearly, as far as she was concerned, I was one of those 'crazies' that you are forced to interact with when, as a politician, you venture out onto the street to meet the electorate - quite a rare event for our Diane, even at election time.