Give me two good reasons, why I oughta stay....

Post by **mikepepler** » 16 Nov 2007, 22:08

We do have the biggest wind and wave power resource (and tidal?) in all of Europe. Well, Scotland has it, to be more precise. If only we could get the kit in and a new grid built in time....

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 16 Nov 2007, 22:21

Totally_Baffled wrote:I have to say I have changed my mind on this question.

We are totally screwed in the UK, and to be honest I have now accepted that as a result of PO I will probably die prematurely of starvation, or being beaten death by a mob of angry hungry idiots whilst trying to defend my family.

I have ALSO changed my mind on this question, but in 180 degree opposite direction!

--prelude--

I have been wrestling with this thing about "social status" for a year or so. I have been thinking that the achievement of "status" is a primary driver, trumping even "sex". If you have "status", this thing about "sex" take care of itself.

I've played around with the "status" concept and observed and tried to match theory with observations, and I think I've made a stunning discovery: It's not achieving "status" that is the explosive driver, it's the FEAR of LOSING status that is.

Since this thing about "status" is built largely on impressions and illusions, it's difficult to lose just 10% or so. When illusions crack people tend to lose 90-100% of the status in one go, and under primal conditions that used to be equal to expulsion from the clan and rapid death.

When people fear that they will lose status they automatically think about their own death, and that triggers an avalanche of primitive reactions. Fear of losing status is probably the main reason for resorting to violence.

--end prelude--

All possible kinds of "precipitation" events can be expected. People have a natural inclination to cooperate. Happen to think that "cooperation" is a really deep thing in the reptile brain. The most extreme example on "collaboration" is "war". Those who are best on collaboration usually win wars.

There will be a need for some kind of "reconciliation process" after the fossil energy, and if that is successful it will be a dominating force people will want to join. People who join a reconciliation process allowing issues of "social status" to be vented and settling with less-is-more WILL have a Darwinian advantage over people who go for resource grabs.

It was one thing to go for grabs when there was something to grab, quite another thing when the aggressor will end up with LESS after the grab than before. The rules of Charles "Big Chuck" Darwin WILL rule. Have always done and will always do.

The UK is very well posed to be the start of some kind of monestary order centered around some kind of reconciliation process. And you might actually be INVITED to help out with reconciliation in other parts of the world.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 16 Nov 2007, 22:44

Totally_Baffled wrote:I have to say I have changed my mind on this question.

We are totally screwed in the UK, and to be honest I have now accepted that as a result of PO I will probably die prematurely of starvation, or being beaten death by a mob of angry hungry idiots whilst trying to defend my family.

Who on earth am I trying to kid? Society has gone tits up and we are richer than we have been.

Once the booze/drugs/ are taken away and people are on WWII type rations , how are the idiot brigade going to react .

I have just watched the Tonight program, and it was about PCSO's on the knowle west estate in Bristol. How depressing - gangs of moronic yougsters (and their parents in a lot of cases). I know this is a rough estate and they exist in any country, but everywhere I go I see this type.

Even in posh , middle class suburbs , people have no time for each other , are generally thick as shite and cannot think beyond their next beer.

I would love to leave - but I feel this is a devil and deep blue sea situation. I just do not have the resources or time to earn money in the pre peak world , whilst preparing for the post peak world.

As for food , yes its possible to feed 60 milllion (IMO). However, after a little research I find that even most of the seed we use comes from all over the world. Thats another resource we have to build up from scratch.

Besides we have no way of getting the workers to the farms and back to their homes again. If we set up camps by the farms - then where would we put them all, along with all the facilities like toilets and water?

The north sea is stuffed, it looks like that wont be producing anything after 2020. Especially when the supply chain for all the high tech stuff gets disrupted.

Nobody will trade with the UK as we will no doubt default on all the debt we have generated over the last 10 years.

I dont think many countries like us anymore either - the EU think we are a pain in the arse - and the US only uses us (who was it said , that the US doesnt have allies , it only has interests?)

Its game over the UK - good luck to you all - but lets face it we are totally stuffed.

Just pray for a quick death....

Our only hope is if we find something around the falkland islands, or we get some sort of hydrocarbon pay back from Kuwait or Iraq given our military protection over the last whatever years.

Yeh, OK, but apart from the lack of drugs, moronic youngsters, the stupid middle classes, lack of resources, lack of food, lack of oil and massive debts, WHAT ELSE has this country done for us?

Sorry TB, I couldn't help myself. Laughter is a great facelift.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 16 Nov 2007, 23:00

The wherewithal for getting out of one's head seems to be a basic human requirement. It was there long before cheap energy, it will still be there when the tide of cheap oil recendes. Who knows some of those presently-useless youths and slappers might be tomorrow's, erm, 'magic gardeners' and brewsters.

I have this theory about teenagers that they'd actually like doing something useful that 'admits' them into the adult world, if we could only think of something that's not too un-cool. Part of their frustration is we've delayed the rights and jobs of adulthood 'til into the 20's, so there they are for 5-6 years raring to go, but nothing we can let them offer.

/offtopic

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 17 Nov 2007, 00:13

RenewableCandy wrote:I have this theory about teenagers that they'd actually like doing something useful that 'admits' them into the adult world

That sounds about right. Yob culture thrives on having an excess of time and/or money and/or energy to abuse. A few years beyond PO there will less disposable energy, money and time and there will be lots of new activities to focus on which might help potential yobs and slobs to explore and exploit their more creative, productive and neighbourly sides. Well hopefully. Of course they might just develop new and more creative ways of being yobbish too, especially if they aspire to being admitted into an 'adult world' which seems to be collapsing all around them...

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 17 Nov 2007, 00:25

well we have the falklands I think that could support more people , if europe stopped immigration into it we have a declining population and there are parts of europe that are a bit underpopulated .

its possible that people could move to parts of russia , russia I see as much more sensible as somewhere to expand the eu to than the middle east they have resources and are closer to europe culturally .

if we dont have a big nuclear war things will be liveable , there no reason to give up hope

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 17 Nov 2007, 01:22

As for moving abroad...

I moved to Spain eons ago, for all sorts of reasons but nothing to do with PO and GW, obviously. I have integrated as best as I can here and am happy with life in Spain, or at least as happy as I would be if I were back in England, I think. But, having lived the first two thirds of my life in England, I will always deeply miss some of the cultural aspects of British life which have been ingrained into me through growing up there. On the other hand, however well I integrate into Spanish society, and however well I speak the language, there will still always be situations in which I simply "don't get it" due to cultural references etc which I have no way of understanding. So in this sense, in some ways I will always feel like and be viewed as a "foreigner" here. This is fine for now and usually just amuses me, but I wonder what new and sinister tones my foreign-ness might take in the future when things start getting complicated...

I think some of you are suffing from "the grass is greener on the other side" syndrome. It's a bit of a national hobby in the UK to enjoy having a grumble about how crap it all is, so it's tempting to extend this thought to "therefore life must be better somewhere else". But I think you're kidding yourselves. Really, the UK has a lot going for it still, in terms of food producing capability, energy resources, climate etc.

But the really important advantages about staying in one's home country are (usually):
- You speak the language and are "tuned into" the culture
- Your friends live there. Come on, get real, if you move abroad it could take years to be able to build up a similar base of close and dependable friends.
- Your family are there. Are you ready to say goodbye possibly forever to some parts of the family when you move abroad?

The immigration/population thing will have to sort itself out somehow (hopefully in a nice, orderly, sensible British fashion) and yes, it looks bleak, but there's no use in running away from it. People migrate in their thousands and millions, and they might even all be heading to NZ or Canada or France next, just as you're settling down as an ex-pat in one of those same countries!

littlejimmy · Post by **littlejimmy** » 17 Nov 2007, 01:36

And some seem to think Migration is OK one way but not the other.

aliwood · Post by **aliwood** » 17 Nov 2007, 09:12

The one problem I really have with this is what happens when you do emigrate. That makes you a migrant. Even rationally thinking people become irrational when faced with enough pressure. My grandad would tell me of cards in windows stating "No Irish", he was third generation Irish and it still grates. Will seeming tolerant people still be tolerant when TSHTF?

SILVERHARP2 · Post by **SILVERHARP2** » 17 Nov 2007, 12:02

SunnyJim wrote:
If you move outside the UK you risk being the outsider that is at more risk from PO wherevr you end up.
Do you really believe that??? Surely the major factor post PO will not be accent or creed, but usefullness and ability. Looking at the figures in this country, many people could be 'surplus to requirement', where as a country with few people to work the land could be very receptive to help, what ever the accent. Violence will erupt when there are too many people for the environment to cope with.

As far as imports go, as oil declines and economies collapse why would a country wish to keep exporting food? Who will want the pound? What could we give them in return??? Any place with lots of land and a high agricultural output per head of population will need to put some of the land aside for bio fuel to run machinery to help with harvest, or more likely will need immigrants to help with the harvest, which will reduce exports. Export land model of food...... makes sense you know.

I don't disagree with your scenarios but your conclusions are too absolute and you are compressing the PO time frame as if all the negative affects will happen overnight. So what if the population of the UK is unsustainable. All you need to ensure is that you are part of smaller community a long way from the major urban centres in that case with access to agricultural land or the sea. I'm sure Yorkshire , Scotland or Wales are not over populated for example. Planning for PO in the medium term will be more about planning for an economic depression as anything else and no economy is guaranteed to be successful all you need to do is carve out your niche

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 17 Nov 2007, 19:12

biffvernon wrote:Sadly, it seems that Bangla Desh's population just got smaller, but its area also got smaller.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7097678.stm

It now looks like the death toll will exceed that of Katrina. Does the world know or care?

aliwood · Post by **aliwood** » 17 Nov 2007, 21:41

Does the world know or care?

The world knows, but sadly TPTB don't seem to care.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 19 Nov 2007, 00:58

No Oil there......

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 19 Nov 2007, 08:56

SILVERHARP2 wrote:
SunnyJim wrote:
If you move outside the UK you risk being the outsider that is at more risk from PO wherevr you end up.
Do you really believe that??? Surely the major factor post PO will not be accent or creed, but usefullness and ability. Looking at the figures in this country, many people could be 'surplus to requirement', where as a country with few people to work the land could be very receptive to help, what ever the accent. Violence will erupt when there are too many people for the environment to cope with.

As far as imports go, as oil declines and economies collapse why would a country wish to keep exporting food? Who will want the pound? What could we give them in return??? Any place with lots of land and a high agricultural output per head of population will need to put some of the land aside for bio fuel to run machinery to help with harvest, or more likely will need immigrants to help with the harvest, which will reduce exports. Export land model of food...... makes sense you know.

I don't disagree with your scenarios but your conclusions are too absolute and you are compressing the PO time frame as if all the negative affects will happen overnight. So what if the population of the UK is unsustainable. All you need to ensure is that you are part of smaller community a long way from the major urban centres in that case with access to agricultural land or the sea. I'm sure Yorkshire , Scotland or Wales are not over populated for example. Planning for PO in the medium term will be more about planning for an economic depression as anything else and no economy is guaranteed to be successful all you need to do is carve out your niche

I'm not concluding anything. Just trying to start a debate again on this topic. I wen't through this ages ago, and decided to try to form a post PO life here, but I wonder sometimes if I made the wrong decision. History is full of warnings that whole populations didn't heed. I wonder if in 50 years time an objective observer might not wonder, why, when presented with the simple facts we who saw the problem coming didn't get the funk out of blighty. Yorkshire, Scotland and Wales aren't far. The UK's population is still way to high. People will disperse from the cities and move to the countryside, but we still have a very dense population. Surely quality of life would be better somewhere that already has a rural economy, is fairly non-reliant on the global economy and doesn't have too many people to support?

hardworkinghippy · Post by **hardworkinghippy** » 19 Nov 2007, 09:26

I moved to France 16 years ago for reasons you all know about - working in the city in London opens your eyes to many things.

Although statistically I'm one on Europe's "Poor" now, my quality of life is exceptional.

I shop about once every three months to buy basics like soap, candles, pasta, booze, etc. If I didn't have to find hard cash to pay social security contributions, insurance and land tax, I'd have enough time to make or grow those products myself and a bit over to help other people.

I'd miss rice though...