Self Doubt

isenhand · Post by **isenhand** » 23 Jan 2007, 08:46

Some going with the flow is necessary as well to actually effect a change. You can fight everything. Its better to work with what we have and within the system we have as much as needed and then work to move to different direction. Society will change, its just a question of what to?

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 23 Jan 2007, 09:20

Sally wrote:Any insurance we can take regarding future unpredictable events has got to be a bonus.

Yet I also feel we should enjoy life to the full and not make ourselves feel totally deprived while a world of plenty rages on around us. Some go with the flow is required!

Sal

Hi there, I tend to agree!

If you were onboard Estonia and knew for SURE that it would go down in an hour, the single most stupid thing to do would probably be to jump overboard immediately!

I will try to recount the story I heard from one survivor. This guy had done military duty in the navy and had been trough the "abandon ship" drill more times than he could remember. Those drills, combined with his taste for hanging around late in bars was his salvage.

He noticed that something was wrong with the ships movements and inclination and instinctively went out and put on a lifewest. All navy drill this far. They teach a set of very simple rules for "abandon ship":

1) Get out and get a lifewest. Not neccesarily in that order but do both.

2) Stay on board as long as possible but not too long. Every minute on board you are dry, every minute in the water you are wet and cold and dying. Jump when you think that the ship has a couple of minutes left afloat.

3) When you jump, do it on the lee side. The sea is just 1/10 on the lee side compared to the wind side and you will not be blown into the hull.

4) Before you jump, decide for a destination; A lifeboat, a float, some floating debris, another guy with a lifewest, roughly in that order.

Well, this guy very much followed the drill. Stayed onboard until it seemed stupid, decided for an inflated float on the leeside, jumped, swam 4-5 paces and climbed into the float. After helping some 4-5 more people onboard, they sewed the canvas hatch tight and just sat there floating for 5-6 hours, until they were conveniently picked up by a helicopter.

His summary description was that he perceived the entire thing as "quite un-dramatic". "A lot of things happened, but it went rather slow and predictable. OK, it was a bit cold in the float, but not THAT cold."

If we get into the darker PO scenarios with a very rapid collapse for societies, I'm certain that there will be survivors who describe it in a similar way. Except from the helicopters. (Amish and New Guinea headhunters excluded from competition)

simonrichards912 · Post by **simonrichards912** » 23 Jan 2007, 10:22

As long as you believe that there is a finite quantity of oil and gas buried deep in the Earth's crust the concept of Peak Oil is real. I have no doubt that there will be further oil discoveries some large and some small. However, with a global consumption of some 84 million bbl per day even a monster 10 billion bbl field will only supply the equivalent of 3 months consumption. These new discoveries are vital if we are to slow down the decline in oil production.

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 23 Jan 2007, 11:16

MacG wrote:If we get into the darker PO scenarios with a very rapid collapse for societies, I'm certain that there will be survivors who describe it in a similar way. Except from the helicopters.

The Titanic/sinking ship analogy with PO does work rather well. The ability to keep calm and avoid panic in the face of imminent disaster is possibly one of the best preparations we can make. Surviving the "lemming phase" can be planned for, the rest will be a combination of hard labour, patience, good will, and no doubt a bit of luck.

MacG wrote:(Amish and New Guinea headhunters excluded from competition)

Yes, they're light years ahead of us in the preparation department. I think the New Guinea headhunters stand the best chance though - they might not even notice peak oil. But the Amish will be invaded from all sides by ravenous suburbanite hordes.

Adam1 · Post by **Adam1** » 23 Jan 2007, 14:55

Snow Hope, have all our responses helped you reach a conclusion?

RogerCO · Post by **RogerCO** » 23 Jan 2007, 17:37

Hi Snow, and the rest of the gang.
I must've started here about the same time as you and probably been through the same cycle of acceptance and personal reaction to the underlying issues.
I've been on here less frequently recently, not because of any change of opinion, more a broadening and deepening - PO is just one aspect of our coming life changes, and it may turn out not to be the most significant one (although it'll certainly be an important component)
The other elephant that is starting to trample around our china shop (if you'll pardon a mixed metaphor) is of course climate change.
If your friend speaks of an oil or fossil fuel discovery then it is irrelevant since whilst enabling us to sidestep the PO Elephant it'll put us straight in the path of the CC Elephant.
If your friend speaks of 'alternative' energy sources then he's been spending too much time in city wine-bars as even if there is a breakthrough discovery, turning it into a real world working technology isn't going to happen in less than 20 years - and that's just to serve the early adopter end of the market - 40 years for mass replacement of everything that runs off fossil fuels today minimum.

RogerCO

peakprepper · Post by **peakprepper** » 24 Jan 2007, 14:27

Snow

I have had similar thoughts and conversations, although not with people seemingly as expert as your friend.

My conclusions are simply that even if PO were never to happen, I have done the following:

- learnt to be a lot more self-sufficient
- learnt a bunch of skills I wouldn't otherwise have done
- did I mention the opportunity to buy *more tools*?
- put my financial house in order
- learnt to ignore what I read and see in the MSM
- dramatically reduced my carbon footprint
- taught my kids about preservation and not wasting stuff unecessarily
- my other half is doing similar things like canning, growing veg. and raising chickens in the next 2-3 months.

As a consequence, you just get to raise your level of independence, your preparedness for most types of emergency (PO or not), and all this hopefully without being too smug.

... as for the Black-Scholes model - beware, not for nothing do they call it a model - it assumes many things, one of which is an even asset-price distribution, laid out like a nice bell-curve - I don't believe it has ever been tested when the markets are trading limit up or down, with people screaming to get out who can't, and there is a bid but no offer for days or weeks.

Your nice bell-curve a la Hubbert then goes down the pan, Nobel prize or not.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 25 Jan 2007, 00:56

Thanks for all your responses in this thread. It is the only place I feel I can discuss my worst fears and it is great to feel the comaraderie that exists in here.

I have not changed my views on PO. But I have taken a reality check. Maybe time to accept life as it is a bit more and enjoy thinks while they are good still.

Maybe we do need to be a bit more open-minded and be more open to new technology and an easier future than I have previously visualised.

Time will tell!

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 25 Jan 2007, 02:59

Maybe we do need to be a bit more open-minded and be more open to new technology and an easier future than I have previously visualised.

It's always better to prepare for the worst and be pleasantly surprised.