USA presidential elections 2016

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raspberry-blower
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Post by raspberry-blower »

Hard hitting stuff from the Archdruid.

He doesn't hold back on the dismal fare served up by the mainstream candidates
John Michael Greer wrote: That sort of content-free campaign is what got George Bush I, Bill Clinton, George Bush II, and Barack Obama onto the list of US presidents. What it got Jeb Bush, though, was a string of humiliating defeats. Some have suggested that his tearful exit from the race in the wake of the South Carolina primary was the act of a child who had been promised a nice shiny presidency by his daddy, and then found out that the mean voters wouldn’t give it to him. I think, though, that there was considerably more to it than that. I think that Bush had just realized, to his shock and horror, that the rules of the game had been changed on him without notice, and all those well-informed, well-connected people who had advised him on the route that would take him to the presidency had basically been smoking their shorts.




If anything, though, Hillary Clinton’s campaign offers an even clearer glimpse into the festering heart of the American political process. She did exactly the same things that Jeb did—it’s indicative that the two of them both splashed their first names across their equally banal campaign logos—and she also managed, as he never did, to get the apparatchiks of her party lined up solidly on her side before the campaigning season got under way. By the ordinary rules of US politics, she should have enjoyed a leisurely stroll through the primaries to the Democratic convention while Jeb Bush wrestled with his opponents, and then gone into the general election with plenty of money to spare, saturating the air waves with a deluge of advertisements designed to convince the American people that four years under her leadership would be ever so slightly less disastrous for them than four years under Bush.
He has savage swipe at the feminist movement's unthinking support for Hilary:
John Michael Greer wrote: What, after all, does a Clinton presidency offer the majority of American women, other than whatever vicarious thrill they might get from having a president with a vagina? The economic policies Clinton espouses—the current bipartisan consensus, from which she shows no signs of veering in the slightest—have already brought poverty and misery to millions of American women who don’t happen to share her privileged background and more than ample income. Her tenure as Secretary of State was marked by exactly the sort of hamfisted interventions in other people’s countries to which Democrats, once upon a time, used to object: interventions, please note, that have already been responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths in Syria, Libya, and elsewhere, and may yet—especially if Clinton takes the same attitudes with her into the White House—treat a good many American women to the experience of watching their kids come home in body bags from yet another brutal and pointless Mideast war.
His view on why there is been a rejection of the status quo:
John Michael Greer wrote: Thus the reason that a large and growing number of ordinary working Americans are refusing to accept another rehash of the status quo this time around is that their backs are to the wall. That’s a situation that comes up reliably at a certain point in the history of every society, and it’s a source of wry amusement to me that Oswald Spengler predicted the situation currently facing the United States—and, mutatis mutandis, the rest of the industrialized world as well.
Archdruid Report: The Decline and Fall of Hilary Clinton
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
johnhemming2
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Post by johnhemming2 »

Christie's move is an interesting one. I read it as "gissa job".
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Superb article by Greer, one of his best for a while.

Starting to read in the political following media the first hints that people are starting to take seriously the possibility of a Trump victory in November.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/d ... tts-219804
Veteran Massachusetts Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh said all Democrats should watch Massachusetts because “it shows you that this is going to be a far tougher [general election] fight than most people thought.”

“I expect this race to be 2000-like close,” she said. “A lot of voters are split between Trump and [Democrat Bernie] Sanders. They agree on the problems. The only thing they’re debating is who has the better approach.”
ne fear among Democrats is that a Trump win among Massachusetts independents would also create a perception advantage for him. "Trump would love to blow out Massachusetts to say he can win here as Reagan did in '80 and '84," said Scott Ferson, a veteran Democratic consultant who helped elected freshman Rep. Seth Moulton in 2014. "And because of our moderate reputation, it would certainly help his momentum. This should be a perfect Rubio or Kasich state."

Democrats outside Massachusetts will be watching too. Dennis Eckart, a former Ohio congressman, said allies in his state should be paying attention.

"Massachusetts poses a real clear yardstick against which you can measure Trump’s appeal in the fall," he said.
Eckart, 65, also sees worrisome parallels between Trump’s rise and Reagan’s.

"I am old enough to remember the glee that many Democrats had in 1980 that the Republicans were going to nominate this actor and how easy it would be against him" he said. "It is a mistake to think or to have as a premise that because this guy plays by no rules known to other politicians ... that therefore makes him vulnerable in the process. We aren’t playing by any known rules now."
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vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

johnhemming2 wrote:Christie's move is an interesting one. I read it as "gissa job".
To my mind a Christie endorsement is like the kiss of death from a mafia boss. 8)
johnhemming2
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Post by johnhemming2 »

I don't read you as a potential trump voter anyway.
vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

johnhemming2 wrote:I don't read you as a potential trump voter anyway.
True but if it comes down to a choice of the lessor of two weasels ,ie. Hillary vs. Trump I may have to hold my nose and vote Trump.
Won't really matter anyway as Vermont will go Hillary or Bernie anyway so my vote will be lost Again. :evil:
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

For a brief, beautiful moment it looked like Bernie had a chance, not any more...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/s ... 3?lo=ap_e2
Running through a best-case scenario for Sanders, Clinton operatives said they expect Sanders could win Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Vermont — states tailor-made for the democratic socialist because they hold caucuses, are predominantly white, located in New England or have a history of electing progressives.

But even if Sanders manages to pull out significant wins in all five, the delegate math will make it difficult for Sanders to catch up: They represent only one-third of the delegates up for grabs on Tuesday. And the Clinton campaign has invested heavily in states like Colorado and Minnesota in order to limit Sanders’ margins.

Sanders’ operatives said they are looking beyond Super Tuesday, to the friendlier terrain of Kansas, Nebraska and Maine to deliver them wins. But by then, Clinton operatives predicted, it could be too little, too late to close the delegate gap.

“Our delegate lead will only grow in the period after Super Tuesday,” Berman said.

Sanders’ situation is similar to one in which Clinton found herself eight years ago, when Barack Obama established a delegate lead during 11 consecutive victories after Super Tuesday and she was never able to catch up. In that race, Super Tuesday resulted in a colossal tie between Obama and Clinton.

This year, however, it’s on Super Tuesday that Clinton operatives expect to open up a lead of 50 delegates or more and leave Sanders behind for good.

Regarding the Republicans, looks like Trump's to lose now.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/s ... 6?lo=ap_b1
Super Tuesday could cripple every Republican presidential candidate not named Donald Trump.

The best-case scenario for Trump would put him far ahead of his rivals in the race for delegates, and polls have him competitive almost everywhere that Republicans are voting. But even if he stumbles, Trump will leave Super Tuesday with enough delegates to remain at the front of the race.
Story Continued Below
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

I have argued before that Trump's populist economic policies are the right policies for America and would benefit ordinary Americans.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/trumponomics-ho ... -will-wor/
Trump is running as the fascist version of FDR: He’s the class traitor. He’s a billionaire who knows how the game is played, knows it is crooked, and is going to betray his own kind to work for the American people.

He will be popular. Once his economic plan works, he will be even more popular. He will be idolized by those who support him. The people who hate him most will be deported, powerless, or crawling on their belly for his approval (most of the media).

Remember, FDR improved the US economy.

But Hitler and Mussolini, they really improved Germany and Italy’s economies.

This, my friends, is why I kept warning that current elites were setting the conditions for the rise of a man on horseback, from fascism or the far left.

People will only tolerate economic failure for so long. After that they will go with anyone, and I do mean anyone, who promises that they will fix it, and who seems credible and, most importantly, not part of the elite who caused the problem in the first place.

Trump will crush Clinton if he runs against her, because she is the very essence of an entitled elitist. He will destroy her in ways you cannot even imagine. It will be ugly, really ugly, but his core critique will be the same as his core critique of Jeb: “You are part of the group that f***ed up America.”

And he’s right.

Bernie, on the other hand, is not. Whether he can win against Trump, I do not know, but he is not nearly as vulnerable to the charge that he’s one of the elite, and, by the way, minus the nativism, his economic plan and Trump’s are a lot alike.
http://theweek.com/articles/608707/coul ... ually-work
The general assumption is that Trump doesn't care about policy: But if you poke through his bluster, what you find is a macroeconomic mechanism that — while very crude and jury-rigged — could conceivably make a lot of Americans better off economically. President Trump would probably lower taxes, raise wages, improve health care, and create jobs.

This is why fascism can appeal to whole national populations, and why it tends to pop up in countries after they've endured big economic collapses. It's not held back by the self-satisfied orthodoxies of cosmopolitan elites, which tend to default to more inequality and exploitation of workers. It's willing to embrace macroeconomic policies that create lots of jobs, raise wages, and improve economic well-being for average workers. It just combines all that with racism, brutalism, authoritarianism, military conquest, and the occasional genocide. Mussolini made the trains run on time, as the old saw goes.

Giving people jobs and decent livelihoods while appealing to their darkest impulses is a pretty winning combination. And you're not going to be able to fight fascism's appeal unless you match it on the jobs and livelihoods front.
A couple of observations. Both writers are anti-Trump, yet they both agree that Trumpeconomics can work and would economically benefit the mass of ordinary Americans.

I think this is key to him potentially winning the presidency. I suspect sufficient numbers of Americans are prepared to put aside the divisive and at times fascistic tendencies of Trump (which he will likely dial down after April/May 2016) and vote for him in November, if they will economically benefit from his policies.
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johnhemming2
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Post by johnhemming2 »

Bernie Saunders is good at identifying issues, but not solutions.

I believe there are two long term economic problems

a) Resource depletion
b) Automation

From the perspective of the economic position of the lower strata in society.

Neither of these is avoidable in the long term.

Climate change is not in the same way an economic problem.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/01/us/po ... .html?_r=0
That strategy is beginning to take shape, with groups that support Mrs. Clinton preparing to script and test ads that would portray Mr. Trump as a misogynist and an enemy to the working class whose brash temper would put the nation and the world in grave danger. The plan is for those themes to be amplified later by two prominent surrogates: To fight Mr. Trump’s ability to sway the news cycle, Mr. Clinton would not hold back on the stump, and President Obama has told allies he would gleefully portray Mr. Trump as incapable of handling the duties of the Oval Office.

Democrats say they risk losing the presidency if they fail to take Mr. Trump seriously, much as Republicans have done in the primary campaign.

“He’s formidable, he understands voters’ anxieties, and he will be ruthless against Hillary Clinton,” said Gov. Dannel P. Malloy of Connecticut. “I’ve gone from denial — ‘I can’t believe anyone would listen to this guy’ — to admiration, in the sense that he’s figured out how to capture everyone’s angst, to real worry.”

“The case against Trump will be prosecuted on two levels,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster and Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategist in 2008. “The first is temperament,” and whether he is suited to be commander in chief, Mr. Garin said, echoing conversations that have dominated Democratic circles recently. The second “will be based on whether he can really be relied on as a champion for anyone but himself.”
Seriously underwhelmed by Clinton's plans to attack Trump.

Painting trump as anti-working class won't work if Clinton is the candidate who accepts donations from Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street interests. A clear win for Trump there.

The Clinton team are on better ground on temperament, but do they not think that Trump will make the effort to appear more calm, disciplined and presidential once he secures the Republican primaries? Indeed, he has already said as much.

Finally, campaigning on a feminist, anti-sexist PC platform against Trump may drive support among younger woman but I wonder whether many, particularly male voters, will be repelled by such a PC agenda.

Bottom line, not sure if Clinton truly understands what she is dealing with here.
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vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

Bottom line, not sure if Clinton truly understands what she is dealing with here.
I'm not sure any of us here truly understands Trump or where this will lead us.
I'm going down to the town hall in an hour to help count the votes. I'll report back when I have the figures.
The one election result I do have is that the Misses got reelected to town clerk for three years unopposed. :)
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

That's the way to do it. Yo for the Misses. :)
vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

biffvernon wrote:That's the way to do it. Yo for the Misses. :)
The funny part has been watching her fuss and worry about it, being the perfectionist she is, when there was not a word of criticism about how she does the job or any challenger in sight.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

8) The votes are counted. registered voters 990. ballots cast 206 Democrat and 147 Republican. Not bad for a primary.
On the Dems side Bernie takes it 90 to 10 For the GOP Kasich is splitting it with Trump about 30 to 30 with Rubio far behind.
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