The monster of high oil prices awakenes?

[SILVERHARP2]

I'm guessing way before then

it really depends I'll agree with you if there isnt a depression , but I still see a greater Depression as a real possibility in which case you will see $25 before $100

[fifthcolumn]

There's a decent chance it'll be back in the $30s again by october.

[Papillon]

There's a decent chance it'll be back in the $30s again by october.

What are you basing this on? Signs are that the economy is starting to stabilize - house prices starting to rise again, FTSE going up, generally. At least this is what Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winner has to say:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/ ... me=topNews

If that is the case, then there is no reason to believe oil prices would go significantly down anytime soon. I'd put my money on them going up further.

[ziggy12345]

$100 a barrel by Nov 1st 2009

[Ludwig]

Given what happened last year, I'm inclining to think that short-term fluctuations in oil price aren't that relevant, because they're driven largely by speculation.

Whether oil's $30 or $100 a barrel by November is not, I suspect, that significant: what's significant is the long-term effects of a generally increasing price of oil.

What I see happening in 2 or 3 years is the stock market's final acknowledgement that oil has peaked and therefore that stock prices can only go down. I think at some point we will see the total collapse of the stock market, as opposed to the mere hammering that it took last year - shares in most companies literally becoming valueless.

[ziggy12345]

Thats what supposed to happen but given the fact people try to cling on to things familiar during a crisis I expect that trading will continue with more and more firms going bankrupt and more and more mergers day after day.

As it will take more and more energy to produce energy (lower EROEI) investments will go to energy companies or agriculture and these will be making profits at the expense of almost everything else.

Like I keep telling people. "If you are not in the energy business you are in the wrong business"

[fifthcolumn]

There's a decent chance it'll be back in the $30s again by october.

What are you basing this on?

I work in the oil patch and I'm one step down from director level.
I'm basing this on the worries that the industry has.
It's actually fairly easy to figure out what the worries are based on if you do a bit of reading.
But I'm afriad I'm not going to help you out and just tell you because that would be letting the cat out of the bag.

In any case, I hope prices go up because I'll get a better bonus.

[woodburner]

Well let's see if this cat has legs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStock ... 8220090515

[Papillon]

In any case, I hope prices go up because I'll get a better bonus.

Good answer

[ziggy12345]

Well let's see if this cat has legs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStock ... 8220090515

Since then its gone up to $70

[woodburner]

If fifthcolumn is correct, the rise is speculative. As was the rise to $140 (give or take). It fell substantially after that.

[fifthcolumn]

If fifthcolumn is correct, the rise is speculative. As was the rise to $140 (give or take). It fell substantially after that.

I don't know what's driving prices but I know some supply and demand line items could cause prices to drop after september.