New coronavirus in/from China

[stumuz1]

In the current situation, that is completely useless. They have in effect stopped selling metals.

Agree, I have been buying silver all day.

I only order from the Royal Mint. 5Kg bars are sold out, but if you keep clicking on refresh, some come available. But not in the quantities you want.

So effectively, silver is the lowest relative to gold, in a hundred years. IF you can get hold of it.

[mr brightside]

No, it's the opposite. The media were slow, didn't kick up enough fuss. Six weeks ago there was good evidence this was going to be 'the big one', but our mainstream media and politicians were asleep at the wheel.

The problem IS COVID-19. The 'panic' still isn't reflecting the significance of what's going on.

Please can you define 'the big one'?

The one-in-a-century novel virus that causes a major and very serious pandemic. It was overdue.

The virus is a flu which like any other flu can kill people with compromised immune systems. This in itself will lead to a brisk trade in funeral direction and load up the NHS.

This virus is very different to flu. It is transmitted in similar ways, but that is where the similarity ends. It doesn't just kill people with compromised immunity. It also causes serious long-term lung damage to some young, healthy people. Yesterday it killed a 17 year old in Korea with no underlying health problems.

The panic is a different animal. Panic causes supply chains to be depleted which ultimately cause food shortages because nobody rents more warehouse space than they need; it damages the ecomomy because people hole up and don't spent money on social activities...blah blah, you get what i mean i'm sure.

People will naturally feel scared when faced with threats to their life, but their survival is entirely dependant on their own actions and omissions. Positivity, survival instinct and practical measures to stop you getting infected ought to be what the media are relaying, but instead all they can do is spread fear. Newscasters and reporters are ranting like old testament prophets about how horrible and deadly threatening it all is. Whether or not it is genuinely deadly threatening is beside the point, the songsheet should be full of hope, not fear.

You don't understand. Maybe you should re-read this thread, from the start. You don't understand how dangerous the virus is, and you don't understand the unavoidable consequences for the world as we know it. This virus is going to bring down the financial system, and it will do so in a way which is going to make it impossible to reboot. The world as we know it has already ended.

Thanks, UE. I don't believe in fast crash scenarios where extinction level events are not involved. I don't think this is an extinction level event, i think this is another step down in a slow crash scenario. I agree this is going to hurt our financial system, but i can't help thinking if we had just kept calm and carried on the damage could have been limited. We've been through something similar before- the blitz, we already have a model for surviving an uncontrollable crisis, the difference this time round is the leadership. The narrative this time is fear not hope.

Question- what are your thoughts concerning looting? Might it be less than expected due to people being afraid to come out of isolation?

[Catweazle]

Fed up with all the doom I thought "some loud music is what I need". Pop my favourite rock compilation 100 HITS album on.

After.....

Blue Oyster Cult - Don't fear the reaper
Kansas - Dust in the wind
Europe - The final countdown
Alice Cooper - Poison
Status Quo - Beginning of the end

I don't think I'll bother with the last 3 CDs.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Here is my current estimate of risk when going out and about.

This is based on a steady exponential increase of cases, with no adjustments for the effects of recent isolation / separation activities.

The Truth may be very different!

Was that based on today's 115,992?

Here's a knotty maths challenge, once again to highlight DANGER. Recall that some weeks back, I almost cut my hair... But now, it's crunch time.

Madame Moutarde is still struggling with this. She wants to break social isolation to attend her hairdresser's appointment on 2 April...

I think this is crazy, due to the accumulating close contact risk the hairdressers will have generated by then. Advised her to pay the money to support the business by posting a cheque in solidarity, but forgo the cut and avoid like the er, plague.

Let's assume this village has the national average risk. There are four salon workers present from 1000 till 1700, so all working individual close contact for 6 hours a day, in the same room themselves all day. The appointments average 45 minutes. So let's assume seven customers each per working day, each day progressively more dangerous... A helpful risk reduction factor is the salon only opens Weds to Saturday mornings.

Perhaps I don't need to worry, because either some or all will be struck down for certain, and the salon closed by 2 April, or the newly aware HMG by then will have firmly directed that long hair be grown throughout the land to save them from themselves (per fashionista Italy).

Course, a barber's would have double the throughput, quick trim and close contact for twenty minutes after the customer waits his turn for ten. A whole new meaning to

Something for the weekend, sir?

[UndercoverElephant]

I agree this is going to hurt our financial system, but i can't help thinking if we had just kept calm and carried on the damage could have been limited.

That's what Boris Johnson also thought, it seems. Not any more.

Question- what are your thoughts concerning looting?

Very likely, as is the army on the streets to prevent it.

[Vortex2]

Trying to do quite a technical pricing exercise this afternoon but finding it difficult to concentrate. Might have to add 'there might be errors' on the front sheet before sending to my client. I'm only half joking.

Anyone else feeling discombobulated?

My wife is definitely looking a bit wobbly

I had a very bad day last week when the penny finally dropped ... extremely down & gloomy .... had my wife quite worried.

Snapped out of it in a couple of hours.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Fed up with all the doom I thought "some loud music is what I need". Pop my favourite rock compilation 100 HITS album on.

After.....

Blue Oyster Cult - Don't fear the reaper
Kansas - Dust in the wind
Europe - The final countdown
Alice Cooper - Poison
Status Quo - Beginning of the end

I don't think I'll bother with the last 3 CDs.

Queensryche - Spreading the disease
Pink Floyd - Breathe
How about some Anthrax?

[Vortex2]

I agree this is going to hurt our financial system, but i can't help thinking if we had just kept calm and carried on the damage could have been limited.

That's what Boris Johnson also thought, it seems. Not any more.

Question- what are your thoughts concerning looting?

Very likely, as is the army on the streets to prevent it.

I suspect that any Brixton looting will be smacked down a lot harder if/when it happens again.

[Vortex2]

In the current situation, that is completely useless. They have in effect stopped selling metals.

Agree, I have been buying silver all day.

I only order from the Royal Mint. 5Kg bars are sold out, but if you keep clicking on refresh, some come available. But not in the quantities you want.

So effectively, silver is the lowest relative to gold, in a hundred years. IF you can get hold of it.

Clearly some here are cash rich ...

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

So effectively, silver is the lowest relative to gold, in a hundred years. IF you can get hold of it.

Grab that cash with both hands
And make a stash

[Vortex2]

Current cases trend (hidden and reported) based on HMG comments, time adjusted to match dates shown

Here is my version of what I think HMG is working with.

Note that no corrections have been included for the hoped-for effects of lock-downs etc.

Whatever happens, it looks like things will begin to be noticeable in the next week or so.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Anyone else feeling discombobulated?

Before all this broke, mild depression. Dysthymia / anhedonia - everything seemed Meh.

Now, disturbed sleep pattern and occasional stomach cramp, an indicator of low-level stress. But feeling more alert and engaged, the many preps needed to be ramped up, worked solo, but steadily and unhindered. But that full undivided attention is what should happen when every diced carrot warning light is flashing.

And every important seemingly trivial detail covered, and above all - unfounded optimism countered by properly assessing risk in good time.

[UndercoverElephant]

And every important seemingly trivial detail covered, and above all - unfounded optimism countered by properly assessing risk in good time.

Yes. If my immediate family can come out the other side of this intact, there could be an unexpected new optimism.

[clv101]

The overwhelming narrative is not to worry about food, plenty to go round, just don't panic buy and overload the supply chain.

But what if this isn't true? That supply chain relies on lots of trucks coming on ferries and Eurostar from the continent. Also air freight for some. ~Zero salad grown in UK in March for example. How significant an impact will all the national lock downs and closed borders have on national and global food supply chains? How much of the ingredients of UK processed food is imported?

Situation in China, Whuan was very different, rest of China (& the world) remained open. Not the case now.

[Vortex2]

And every important seemingly trivial detail covered, and above all - unfounded optimism countered by properly assessing risk in good time.

Yes. If my immediate family can come out the other side of this intact, there could be an unexpected new optimism.

Yep ... and if I get through this I will not be putting up with the petty bullying bullshit from local govt etc.

It's time for a change.