Isn't it the US Marines who say 'hope isn't a plan'?Vortex2 wrote: We can only hope and pray that there is some mechanism which makes the spread burn out very very early in the process.
New coronavirus in/from China
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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adam2
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I forecast an increase in panic, and in panic buying in particular.
Not only is the outbreak rapidly worsening, but the early evening TV news consisted largely of appeals to not panic buy.
Interspersed with film of empty supermarket shelves and people panic buying.
Not only is the outbreak rapidly worsening, but the early evening TV news consisted largely of appeals to not panic buy.
Interspersed with film of empty supermarket shelves and people panic buying.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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Mean Mr Mustard II
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Potemkin Villager
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There will be a lock down soon, delaying the curve as extrapolated today.Vortex2 wrote:Me no unnerstan
HMG say the UK peak will be in "early summer" ... doesn't fit in with my exponential curve model which is running with an R^2 of 0.99 and suggests a peak in April.
Clearly there must be something about epidemiology which I have missed.
It's anecdote time folks!Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Chaos as 30,000 British tourists told to leave French ski resorts
I never imagined that many low IQ folks liked skiing that much. When they get a bit older, I suppose they then go on cruises.
I used to work in Munich and had lots of German friends.
I asked one if he went skiing. He said that he was brought up in the mountains and skied everywhere every day most of his youth.
He also said he didn't ski any more ...so I asked why.
"To go skiing I often have to wait hours to get past a French tourist stuck on the road due to lack of snow tires. When I get to the mountain I grew up on I have to effing PAY to ski on it. And when I get there, wearing my old jeans and a jumper, with my grandad's wooden skis the Dutch and British tourists mock me because I'm not wearing a graphite fibre snow suits with the style of the year and I don't have titanium skis. This is very annoying as with my old wooden skis I can out-ski anyone on the slopes. I don't bother any more."
... but Coco The Clown doesn't believe in lock-downs ...clv101 wrote:There will be a lock down soon, delaying the curve as extrapolated today.Vortex2 wrote:Me no unnerstan
HMG say the UK peak will be in "early summer" ... doesn't fit in with my exponential curve model which is running with an R^2 of 0.99 and suggests a peak in April.
Clearly there must be something about epidemiology which I have missed.
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Mean Mr Mustard II
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Also if you look at the LHR entry / egress - usually one ac every 40 seconds. Only a few on holding patterns.Potemkin Villager wrote:On Flightradar at the moment it looks as if there are at least ten times as many flights evacuating the Canaries as heading the other way. Somthing does not add up.
When you're dealing with exponential growth, the time to act is when it feels too early.
I think that the 737MAX will never be seen again ...Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Also if you look at the LHR entry / egress - usually one ac every 40 seconds. Only a few on holding patterns.Potemkin Villager wrote:On Flightradar at the moment it looks as if there are at least ten times as many flights evacuating the Canaries as heading the other way. Somthing does not add up.