New coronavirus in/from China

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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Following Adam2's shopping report, and V2's personal risk guide, we decided to break cover for one last time. Final top up.

We did a planned flyby of Aldi - car park overflowing - and saw the constant stream of cars entering the mega Tescos nearby. Instead, we headed for B&M, per Adam's advice. They were reasonably well stocked with everything. Even got two Aloe Vera gels. Then went to a backwater supermarket where all the labels are written in Foreign, mainly aimed at the large Eastern European diaspora here. They too had everything, busy but not overcrowded. Loo roll, flour etc. Being as it's not mainstream, and assuming they can still import from Europe, that'll be the first port of call in X months from now.

We are thinking about a trip early next week to a flour mill... Really gotta call it good then.
This graph shows the explosion of infections over the next few weeks.

It shows how much time you have to get out and about relatively safely - and then when you should be hiding under the duvet.

We are currently in the lowest foothills.

This is HMG data of reported cases x 8.3 to allow for hidden cases and then time shifted 6 days to allow for slow reporting.

In reality the graph will curve heavily to the right as we approach saturation.

Hospital beds will run out very early in the upslope ... leaving many thousands to fend for them selves.

The first week of April will be a fun time for the country.

I just hope that this is all a waking dream and/or the numbers are total nonsense.
Image
Last edited by Vortex2 on 15 Mar 2020, 22:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

Interesting expert viewpoint ...

https://youtu.be/ITWSY2SpE-k at 12:20
kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Vortex2 wrote:.......So how come so many 'top' people have been infected?
They are the ones who travel most, who meet people who travel most, probably shake hands the most and "probably don't have time" to wash their hands very often. A culling of their numbers would probably be a good thing for the rest of us.

As to the older generation they are probably now living life by the day anyway so if Covid 19 doesn't get you something else probably will. Why bother?
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
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Mean Mr Mustard II
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard II »

Overnight sensation Doc Campbell just made it onto Fox News. Like the virus, soon he'll be unstoppable and therefore remain free to speak as he finds.

Certainly got the impression he was pulling punches after the Herd Immunity press conference, but he's regained his edge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1t67o28Jr3k
When you're dealing with exponential growth, the time to act is when it feels too early.
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

adam2 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:The over 70s won't play ball

Listening to LBC : many callers over 70 refusing to accept any restrictions.

Sadly many over 70s seem to develop an over inflated sense of their IQ & knowledge.
This has been my experience.
Friends of my late mothers are generally carrying on as normal. Much talk of the "blitz spirit" as being justification for attending social events as normal. Cultural meetings, card games, church, pub lunches and so on.
Many are already in poor health.
This is actually very rational behaviour at their stage of life. If it is possible that your health might suddenly decline terminally anytime without warning anyway then why make yourself miserable by worrying about just one more thing among many that [/i]might get you. Party on!
Last edited by Potemkin Villager on 15 Mar 2020, 14:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

Noway puts dent in bug-out cabins ...
(via the Guardian) Health minister Bent Høie reportedly said.

This means that everyone now has to follow the strong request of the prime minister to pack their cases and go home. If they do not, we will prohibit them from staying in the cabin.

It comes after prime minister Erna Solberg threatened to deploy the civil defence to bring people home from their cabins.
This is to prevent overloading small rural hospitals.
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:.......So how come so many 'top' people have been infected?
They are the ones who travel most, who meet people who travel most, probably shake hands the most and "probably don't have time" to wash their hands very often. A culling of their numbers would probably be a good thing for the rest of us.
Well I guess there has to be some upside to all this.
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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

100m Europeans on lockdown as countries battle coronavirus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Meanwhile in Britain we sing Happy Birthday when we wash our hands.
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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

Does not compute :

.... no HMG action planned for a week or two ... yet massive queues and panic buying at supermarkets.

Has the populace worked out what is REALLY about to happen?

The Wisdom Of Crowds at work?
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Vortex2 wrote: Has the populace worked out what is REALLY about to happen?
Half of them have, yes. People will also start taking their kids out of school without permission next week.
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

Queues and shortages at supermarkets are within reason a good thing in my view as they suggest that people are preparing at least partially for remaining at home.

I would much prefer that people purchase extra supplies now whilst they are probably not infected, than that they are driven out of self isolation by want of supplies at some future date by which time they are more likely to be infected.

Better still would be to always keep stocks of supplies for any future emergency.
My last minute purchases were limited to the following.
Surgical masks, 100.
Surgical gloves, 200.
Propane, 3 bottles each 19 kilo.
Hydrogen peroxide, 2 liters.
Ethanol fuel.
Anthracite, half a ton.

Toilet rolls, not needed, ample stocks already.
Bulk food, not needed but did order modest volumes to replace normal consumption.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

If your government won’t help you, do it yourself. ... Dr William Hanage, professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-covid-19
eatyourveg
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Post by eatyourveg »

Vortex2 wrote:Does not compute :

.... no HMG action planned for a week or two ... yet massive queues and panic buying at supermarkets.

Has the populace worked out what is REALLY about to happen?

The Wisdom Of Crowds at work?
Wisdom some of the crowd, yes, certainly not all. Tiny example, I and a few friends run a film club every Sunday evening. Cancelled by myself for this Sunday onwards. Understood by all but one, who is mightily puzzled by the other members understanding why, and carries on as if nothing is happening. This is a normal, intelligent person who is seemingly blanking the whole thing out. Similar to the reaction to MMM2's Wednesday club meetings. Extrapolate to the whole population and that's a heck of a lot of people who simply refused to be 'conned' in to doing the rational thing.
"Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools". Douglas Bader.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Austria bans all meetings of more than 5 people:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... reddit.com

This is going to lead to the closing down of all international borders pretty soon.

EDIT: Germany has just closed its borders.
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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

Latest UK stats at 15 March : 1372 cases, 35 dead.

I predicted 1510 ..... hmm, they did warn that they would reduce/stop testing ... maybe that explains the smaller than expected number ...

Just checked ... the new point is bang on the exponential trend line ... yesterday's may have been a tad high.

Trend line chart as at 15 March

https://i.ibb.co/h9HyjRg/chart.png
Last edited by Vortex2 on 15 Mar 2020, 16:09, edited 1 time in total.
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