New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 14:47

Data update

That latest data point has improved my R2 .. almost 1 now.

The rate of growth has dropped a bit .. but with exponential curves it has added just 0.5 days to doom time.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 08 Mar 2020, 14:48

Spouse went to church this morning, they tried to talk her out of suspending her immunosuppresent drugs. "The government is talking this up with worst case scenarios".

Almost all of the church goers are over 70

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 15:17

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Useful virus case data source

This govt web page gives the latest data as a total and also broken down by region.

As the numbers increase this will show which areas to avoid.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... in-england
Don't forget its a seriously lagging indicator. Deliberately, by 24 hours, the previous day. Then time to test and confirm. Time to arrange the testing. Strong symptoms suggesting the need to test. Mild or subclinical not too bothered. Shedding virus, infectious 12 hours after infection, oblivious. Call that a week or more of undetected and infectious, while the virus doubles unseen every other day. So, East of England, officially 16 as of yesterday at 09.00, is probably more like 160 right now, and several of those likely in Italian holiday-going Cambridge / shire, currently clocking ZERO. Sorry to bother Ralph with that example, but maybe that'll help convince his Missus...

So how many days delay offset would you suggest I use in my models?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Mar 2020, 15:25

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:I shall place my bets (spread betting?) as being 193 tomorrow, 239 Saturday, 399 Sunday and 503 Monday. Slightly above double every two days. It's just a hunch, as wild-assed guessing is now encouraged, it seems.

Spread's going on right now, on TV. Look at all the hugs going on in the Crufts flyball contest heats. Collies definitely brighter than their owners.

...and we've not even got to Best of Breed yet! (Irish Setter, again...? Got three here, including a daughter of Mickey, last year's best of breed.

)

I digress. Back to the Wu. Bear in mind my WAG (wild-assed guess) is for 09.00 Saturday, I've well underestimated, as our official dodgy stats cite 273. And with the lag from actual and sub-clinical, shall we call that 3000 in reality?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Mar 2020, 15:31

Vortex2 wrote:

So how many days delay offset would you suggest I use in my models?[/quote]

Take a WAG at how long it takes, and indeed, whether, one may become a Official Statistic.

Pondering the fact that if 80% are mild, maybe 60% of the infectious don't report at all? And also, as the system becomes stressed, the longer it will take to process...

Easy answer - grab the tinned prunes, call it good, and go dark now.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 15:39

My model data predictions

Exponential fit, R*R = 0.996 based on data from 27th Feb and later

slot 1 = today, 8 March

1 279
2 379
3 515
4 700
5 950
6 1,290
7 1,752

Post by **mikepepler** » 08 Mar 2020, 15:45

One theory I've heard regarding the variance in CFRs is that it is lower than typical in South Korea because a large share of the current cases are from the cult/church, and many of the members there were younger people - so fewer are dying. Italy, meanwhile, has a significant share of older people.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Mar 2020, 15:45

If the Pyramids and Sphinx are on your Bucket List, you'll probably find low low prices with QueasyJet.

Graun -

â€œWe are here to respond to rumours saying that there are no tourists and people are afraid of coming. Thank God, people are here,â€� Khaled al-Anani, the tourism and antiquities minister, told state television before the camera panned across to show tourists queuing to enter the site.

Welcome to the Hotel Cairo. You can check out, but you can never leave.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Mar 2020, 16:16

Doctor Campbell will see you now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5_yExFZFYw

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 16:52

mikepepler wrote:One theory I've heard regarding the variance in CFRs is that it is lower than typical in South Korea because a large share of the current cases are from the cult/church, and many of the members there were younger people - so fewer are dying. Italy, meanwhile, has a significant share of older people.

Good point.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Mar 2020, 17:44

Temp. 100.3 !

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 17:54

FT interesting page

Take a look at this page.

This is a live updating page which seems full of interesting info

Note - the direct link may need you to register ... but going from Google News seems to bypass that ... odd ...

https://www.ft.com/content/3ba863e8-e68 ... ae1d6a8f9d

* There is a shot of 1000s waiting in a massive crowd waiting for testing in Cairo ... err, I wonder how many became infected whilst waiting?

* An Iranian member of parliament says that a disaster is unfolding in Gilan province, with deaths exceeding seethe nationally reported, 50% of medics infected, full hospitals and burials of victims without being classified as coronavirus.

* The chief of Lombardy's regional crisis response unit has said that the health system was "a step away from collapse"

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 17:58

vtsnowedin wrote:Temp. 100.3 !

Yours?

100.4 is a fever.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Mar 2020, 18:20

Italy's latest:

"Italy reports 1,492 new cases of coronavirus and 133 new deaths, raising total to 7,375 cases and 366 dead" https://t.co/eUoE2b20hL

And apparently: "The age of fatalities range from 60 to 95 years old, except 2 under 60. Overall average of total is 81 years old. In 85% cases each was already suffering from an underlying illness."

This is looking truly devastating for the elderly, big demographic, social, political implications.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Mar 2020, 18:26

What's going on in Germany, no deaths from ~1000 cases?