The Beginning of the World

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Blue Peter
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Post by Blue Peter »

UndercoverElephant wrote: As for Greer and his vision of the future, I think the main value of "The Long Descent" is that it is a starting point for debates about what is actually going to happen. It is useful to think about what you believe he might be right about and what he might be wrong about. He's right to reject the two myths of never-ending "progress" and overnight catastrophe, but that still leaves a lot of possible variations that don't match Greer's vision.
To be both fair and unfair to Greer, I don't think that there's much which won't match his vision, aside from the two things which you mention. And, even there, I think that he allows pockets of technical progress, and also "small" overnight catastrophes, and even quite large ones.

I think that his great insight is that, for most people, most of the time, tomorrow will be just like today, except just a little bit worse. And, that it has started,


Peter.
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Potemkin Villager wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:I was wondering where the Archdruid had got to.
I am put in mind of a situation comedy centred on four clever
20 something males sharing an apartment. The four males would be loosely based on younger versions of the archdruid, Jim Kunstler,
Dmitry Orlov and Richard Heisenberg and the situation comedy of course would have to be called "The Peak Oil Theory".
Just so long as I'm not the bird that 2 of them are chasing after :D
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

Like Snail I stopped reading his High Eminence's blogs some time ago.

Apart from their repetition and extreme and tiring verbosity the AD's blogs
seem largely constructed to showcase just how clever and all
knowing he feels himself to be compared to mere mortals. In addition he seems totally devoid of any sense of humour, humility or irony whatsoever.

It is interesting that two folk have taken away completely different
impressions of just what he was trying to get at in the excerpt at the start of this post.

I suspect it all could all be distilled down to a just few paragraphs, but oh no that is not good enough for his Grace, he has to drone on and on until the nett sum is somewhat less than zero and reader reduced to cross eyed bewilderment.
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
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nexus
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Post by nexus »

Potemkin Villager wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:I was wondering where the Archdruid had got to.
I am put in mind of a situation comedy centred on four clever
20 something males sharing an apartment. The four males would be loosely based on younger versions of the archdruid, Jim Kunstler,
Dmitry Orlov and Richard Heisenberg and the situation comedy of course would have to be called "The Peak Oil Theory".
Archdruid (confident,verbose)- Sheldon
Heinberg (very quiet,big picture guy) - Raj
Kunstler (bit of a sexist, plus he's actually called Howard!)- Howard
Orlov (socially skilled,funny)- Leonard
Astyk (funny, unsentimental)- Leslie Winkle

That totally works! .....
....and has amused me greatly this cold January morning.....
Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Frederick Douglass
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

nexus wrote:
Archdruid (confident,verbose)- Sheldon
Heinberg (very quiet,big picture guy) - Raj
Kunstler (bit of a sexist, plus he's actually called Howard!)- Howard
Orlov (socially skilled,funny)- Leonard
Astyk (funny, unsentimental)- Leslie Winkle

That totally works! .....
....and has amused me greatly this cold January morning.....
Why thank you Nexus and a very happy new year to you. :D

Of course, just for the craic you understand, we might extend this
thought experiment to consider a possible UK based version of the
sitcom. This very eminent forum indeed might even supply suitable characters!
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
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nexus
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Post by nexus »

Nice idea

RC is clearly worried that she'd be Penny, but I think iirc she's an astrophysicist, in which case she needs a sex/race change and then she can be Raj.

More importantly, who on here would be Sheldon?
Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Frederick Douglass
Blue Peter
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Post by Blue Peter »

Potemkin Villager wrote:Like Snail I stopped reading his High Eminence's blogs some time ago.

Apart from their repetition and extreme and tiring verbosity the AD's blogs
seem largely constructed to showcase just how clever and all
knowing he feels himself to be compared to mere mortals. In addition he seems totally devoid of any sense of humour, humility or irony whatsoever.

It is interesting that two folk have taken away completely different
impressions of just what he was trying to get at in the excerpt at the start of this post.

I suspect it all could all be distilled down to a just few paragraphs, but oh no that is not good enough for his Grace, he has to drone on and on until the nett sum is somewhat less than zero and reader reduced to cross eyed bewilderment.
I don’t get this impression of him at all (well, I suspect that he doesn’t suffer fools gladly). He strikes me as a polymath and a pretty smart one. As Ralph said on another thread lots of people in the PO world tend to have a science/engineering background, and so miss out on the perspective from the humanities, which is a weakness because it’s there that we find the only comparable events in human history (civilization/empire collapse).

It doesn’t guarantee that he will get it right, but at the moment, he seems to be doing better than the catastrophic collapse brigade.

He also applies ecological insights well, I think, and even magical ones (magic now makes a lot more sense to me since his posts on it).

Anyway, if you don’t like what he writes, then ignore him, of course, but I suspect that most can find something useful from him,


Peter.

P.S. I presume that this is a new handle. Who were you?
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

I rather like the idea of being called Raj...
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

nexus wrote:Nice idea

More importantly, who on here would be Sheldon?
:?: :?: :? yep it's a pretty tricky one that!

On the question of his eminence the arch druid perhaps greater
minds than mine would care to provide a short and concise precis in clear English as to precisely what he is getting at in the quotation at the beginning of this thread and what exactly it reveals.

I have tried reading it several times and am none the wiser ending up
only with a headache and the feeling he is taking the piss.
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
Little John

Post by Little John »

Potemkin Villager wrote:
nexus wrote:Nice idea

More importantly, who on here would be Sheldon?
:?: :?: :? yep it's a pretty tricky one that!

On the question of his eminence the arch druid perhaps greater
minds than mine would care to provide a short and concise precis in clear English as to precisely what he is getting at in the quotation at the beginning of this thread and what exactly it reveals.

I have tried reading it several times and am none the wiser ending up
only with a headache and the feeling he is taking the piss.
I have paraphrased each paragraph in turn (in blue) and have provided a critical response.
The most important of those forces, as I’ve argued in previous posts, is the widening mismatch between the fantasy of entitlement that has metastasized through contemporary American society, on the one hand, and the ending of an age of fossil-fueled imperial extravagance on the other. As the United States goes bankrupt trying to maintain its global empire, and industrial civilization as a whole slides down the far side of a dizzying range of depletion curves, it’s becoming harder by the day for Americans to make believe that the old saws of upward mobility and an ever brighter future have any relevance to their own lives—and yet those beliefs are central to the psychology, the self-image, and the worldview of most Americans. The resulting cognitive dissonance is hard to bear, and apocalyptic fantasies offer a convenient way out. They promise that the world will change, so that the believers don’t have to.
“People's expectations of handouts from the state might properly be considered a form of cultural cancer that has been fed by the availability of fossil fuels. Peak oil means this must end However, there is a psychological/cultural lag where expectations of entitlement are not keeping up with the the changing reality on the ground.”

This first paragraph completely ignores the fact that the vast majority of humans are denied access to the primary means of production and so are unable to operate outside of such a system. Thus, if that system in which they are imprisoned does not provide them with enough work or enough money from the work that they do, it is hardly surprising that they should be able to expect that they are compensated in the form of social security benefits.
Another example? Consider the rhetoric of elite privilege that clusters around the otherwise inoffensive label "1%." That rhetoric plays plenty of roles in today’s society, but one of them pops up reliably any time I talk about using less. Why, people ask me in angry tones, should they give up their cars when the absurdly rich are enjoying gigantic luxury yachts? Now of course we could have a conversation about the total contribution to global warming of cars owned by people who aren’t rich, compared to that of the fairly small number of top-end luxury yachts that usually figure in such arguments, but there’s another point that needs to be raised. None of the people who make this argument to me have any control over whether rich people have luxury yachts. All of them have a great deal of control over whether and how often they themselves use cars. Blaming the global ecological crisis on the very rich thus functions, in practice, as one more way to evade the necessity of unwelcome change.
“People who complain about having to reduce their lifestyle because the rich will not be forced to reduce their lifestyle should stop complaining because it is impossible to stop rich people over consuming”.

Here, Greer demonstrates little if any understanding of (or, perhaps, interest in) the psychology of a complex social species such as ours. Equity and fairness are everything. If people are expected to reduce their access to resources, they need to see that this is being implemented fairly. Otherwise it will never happen. This is an inescapable fact of life of human psychology.
Along these same lines, dear reader, as you surf the peak oil and climate change blogosphere and read the various opinions on display there, I’d encourage you to ask yourself what those opinions amount to in actual practice. A remarkably large fraction of them, straight across the political landscape from furthest left to furthest right and including all stops in between, add up to demands that somebody else, somewhere else, do something. Since the people making such demands rarely do anything to pressure, or even to encourage, those other people elsewhere to do whatever it is they’re supposed to do, it’s not exactly hard to do the math and recognize that here again, these opinions amount to so many ways of insisting that the people holding them don’t have to give up the extravagant and unsustainable lifestyles most people in the industrial world think of as normal and justifiable.
“Each one of us should stop expecting someone else to shoulder the burden of a reduced lifestyle”.

No shit Sherlock. Also, see my response to previous paragraph.
There’s another way to make the same point, which is that most of what you’ll see being proposed in the peak oil and climate change blogosphere has been proposed over and over and over again already, without the least impact on our predicament. From the protest marches and the petitions, through the latest round of grand plans for energy futures destined to sit on the shelves cheek by jowl with the last round, right up to this week’s flurry of buoyantly optimistic blog posts lauding any technofix you care to name from cold fusion and algal biodiesel to shale gas and drill-baby-drill: been there, done that, used the T-shirt to wipe another dozen endangered species off the face of the planet, and we’re still stuck in the same place. The one thing next to nobody wants to talk about is the one thing that distinguished the largely successful environmental movement of the 1960s and 1970s from the largely futile environmental movement since that time, which is that activists in the earlier movement were willing to start the ball rolling by making the necessary changes in their own lives first.
“The activist movement was better when I was a lad”.

This does not really merit any critical analysis. It sounds like little more than the nostalgic ramblings of, presumably, an old man.
Meanwhile, of course, the economy, the infrastructure, and the resource flows that make those perks and privileges and comforts possible are coming apart around them. There’s a great deal of wry amusement to be gained from watching one imaginary cataclysm after another seize the imagination of the peak oil scene or society as a whole, while the thing people think they’re talking about—the collapse of industrial civilization—has been unfolding all around them for several years now, in exactly the way that real collapses of real civilizations happen in the real world.
“I am far above the petty concerns of the here and now and have the vision to see the “bigger picture””.

Here, Greer is demonstrating the superior size of his willy.
Look around you, dear reader, as the economy stumbles through another round of contraction papered over with increasingly desperate fiscal gimmicks, the political system of your country moves ever deeper into dysfunction, jobs and livelihoods go away forever, whatever social safety net you’re used to having comes apart, towns and neighborhoods devastated by natural disasters are abandoned rather than being rebuilt, and the basic services that once defined a modern society stop being available to a larger and larger fraction of the people of the industrial world. This is what collapse looks like. This is what people in the crumbling Roman Empire and all those other extinct civilizations saw when they looked out the window. To those in the middle of the process, as I’ve discussed in previous posts, it seems slow, but future generations with the benefit of hindsight will shake their heads in wonder at how fast industrial civilization went to pieces.
“It's all going to get worse, bit by bit as we slowly grind down from the hydrocarbon age”.

Again, no shit Sherlock
Last edited by Little John on 11 Jan 2013, 10:25, edited 8 times in total.
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

Many thanks Steve.

When you pare it down like that he seems to have a lot
in common with Margaret Thatcher or the acolytes of Enron!
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
Blue Peter
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Post by Blue Peter »

Steve,

I don't think that's a fair response. What Greer writes can perhaps be read that way, but I don't believe that is being fair to Greer, or making the most of what he is saying. My opinion in green bold:
stevecook172001 wrote:I have paraphrased each paragraph in turn (in blue) and have provided a critical response.
The most important of those forces, as I’ve argued in previous posts, is the widening mismatch between the fantasy of entitlement that has metastasized through contemporary American society, on the one hand, and the ending of an age of fossil-fueled imperial extravagance on the other. As the United States goes bankrupt trying to maintain its global empire, and industrial civilization as a whole slides down the far side of a dizzying range of depletion curves, it’s becoming harder by the day for Americans to make believe that the old saws of upward mobility and an ever brighter future have any relevance to their own lives—and yet those beliefs are central to the psychology, the self-image, and the worldview of most Americans. The resulting cognitive dissonance is hard to bear, and apocalyptic fantasies offer a convenient way out. They promise that the world will change, so that the believers don’t have to.
“People's expectations of handouts from the state might properly be considered a form of cultural cancer that has been fed by the availability of fossil fuels. Peak oil means this must end However, there is a psychological/cultural lag where expectations of entitlement are not keeping up with the the changing reality on the ground.”

I believe that he is not talking about handouts from the state, but the fact that the US empire is set up to channel 25% of the world’s resources to 5% of the world’s people. And those 5% believe they are entitled to this distribution – it is, after all, what empire is all about. Since this belief is at the very heart of what the US is, it is hard to deal with when it begins to fail. A psychological defence mechanism is to project difficulties onto something else, which is safe, in this case apocalypses. I would guess here that the idea is that deep down, you know that you have to change, but can’t face it, but you are hoping that something – the apocalypse – will force you into so doing.


This first paragraph completely ignores the fact that the vast majority of humans are denied access to the primary means of production and so are unable to operate outside of such a system. Thus, if that system in which they are imprisoned does not provide them with enough work or enough money from the work that they do, it is hardly surprising that they should be able to expect that they are compensated in the form of social security benefits.
Another example? Consider the rhetoric of elite privilege that clusters around the otherwise inoffensive label "1%." That rhetoric plays plenty of roles in today’s society, but one of them pops up reliably any time I talk about using less. Why, people ask me in angry tones, should they give up their cars when the absurdly rich are enjoying gigantic luxury yachts? Now of course we could have a conversation about the total contribution to global warming of cars owned by people who aren’t rich, compared to that of the fairly small number of top-end luxury yachts that usually figure in such arguments, but there’s another point that needs to be raised. None of the people who make this argument to me have any control over whether rich people have luxury yachts. All of them have a great deal of control over whether and how often they themselves use cars. Blaming the global ecological crisis on the very rich thus functions, in practice, as one more way to evade the necessity of unwelcome change.
“People who complain about having to reduce their lifestyle because the rich will not be forced to reduce their lifestyle should stop complaining because it is impossible to stop rich people over consuming”.

Here, Greer demonstrates little if any understanding of (or, perhaps, interest in) the psychology of a complex social species such as ours. Equity and fairness are everything. If people are expected to reduce their access to resources, they need to see that this is being implemented fairly. Otherwise it will never happen. This is an inescapable fact of life of human psychology.

Greer is just being pragmatic here, and FWIW, expresses a view which is probably shared by all the sages of the world. The only place that you can really affect change is right where you are. Stop whining and start doing. I’m sure that Greer is all in favour of fairness, but he knows that humans generally prefer fairness which is fairer to them. Instead of whining about that, start making the changes that you want to see with yourself. At least you will get some change, and it may spread. Merely whining and hoping will do nothing.

Along these same lines, dear reader, as you surf the peak oil and climate change blogosphere and read the various opinions on display there, I’d encourage you to ask yourself what those opinions amount to in actual practice. A remarkably large fraction of them, straight across the political landscape from furthest left to furthest right and including all stops in between, add up to demands that somebody else, somewhere else, do something. Since the people making such demands rarely do anything to pressure, or even to encourage, those other people elsewhere to do whatever it is they’re supposed to do, it’s not exactly hard to do the math and recognize that here again, these opinions amount to so many ways of insisting that the people holding them don’t have to give up the extravagant and unsustainable lifestyles most people in the industrial world think of as normal and justifiable.
“Each one of us should stop expecting someone else to shoulder the burden of a reduced lifestyle”.

No shit Sherlock. Also, see my response to previous paragraph.
There’s another way to make the same point, which is that most of what you’ll see being proposed in the peak oil and climate change blogosphere has been proposed over and over and over again already, without the least impact on our predicament. From the protest marches and the petitions, through the latest round of grand plans for energy futures destined to sit on the shelves cheek by jowl with the last round, right up to this week’s flurry of buoyantly optimistic blog posts lauding any technofix you care to name from cold fusion and algal biodiesel to shale gas and drill-baby-drill: been there, done that, used the T-shirt to wipe another dozen endangered species off the face of the planet, and we’re still stuck in the same place. The one thing next to nobody wants to talk about is the one thing that distinguished the largely successful environmental movement of the 1960s and 1970s from the largely futile environmental movement since that time, which is that activists in the earlier movement were willing to start the ball rolling by making the necessary changes in their own lives first.
“The activist movement was better when I was a lad”.

This does not really merit any critical analysis. It sounds like little more than the nostalgic ramblings of, presumably, an old man.

Of course it merits analysis, because if it’s true, then it’s worth finding out about and learning the lessons thereof. If it’s false, well, then we’ve learnt something about Greer.

Meanwhile, of course, the economy, the infrastructure, and the resource flows that make those perks and privileges and comforts possible are coming apart around them. There’s a great deal of wry amusement to be gained from watching one imaginary cataclysm after another seize the imagination of the peak oil scene or society as a whole, while the thing people think they’re talking about—the collapse of industrial civilization—has been unfolding all around them for several years now, in exactly the way that real collapses of real civilizations happen in the real world.
“I am far above the petty concerns of the here and now and have the vision to see the “bigger picture””.

Here, Greer is demonstrating the superior size of his willy.

Is he right or is he wrong? Has collapse begun? Is this how civilizations collapse? It’s worth investigating, because it tells you the general outline of what is going to happen – better a rough map than none at all, or a false map (“Here be apocalypses”)
Look around you, dear reader, as the economy stumbles through another round of contraction papered over with increasingly desperate fiscal gimmicks, the political system of your country moves ever deeper into dysfunction, jobs and livelihoods go away forever, whatever social safety net you’re used to having comes apart, towns and neighborhoods devastated by natural disasters are abandoned rather than being rebuilt, and the basic services that once defined a modern society stop being available to a larger and larger fraction of the people of the industrial world. This is what collapse looks like. This is what people in the crumbling Roman Empire and all those other extinct civilizations saw when they looked out the window. To those in the middle of the process, as I’ve discussed in previous posts, it seems slow, but future generations with the benefit of hindsight will shake their heads in wonder at how fast industrial civilization went to pieces.
“It's all going to get worse, bit by bit as we slowly grind down from the hydrocarbon age”.

Again, no shit Sherlock
Is that what is going to happen? Lots of people thought that it would all happen suddenly –e.g. Duncan’s olduvai theory. So, we’ve learnt something. Good.


Peter.
Does anyone know where the love of God goes when the waves turn the seconds to hours?
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013- ... or-krampus

Greer is clearly not everybodys fan, but I enjoy reading his articles.

This is his latest and focuses on technology.
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Post by emordnilap »

Lord Beria3 wrote:Greer is clearly not everybodys fan
That's true.
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Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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