Fed up! :(

[Totally_Baffled]

On the subject of UK food production and carrying capacity:

http://www.optimumpopulation.org/opt.af.tab2e.hmt2a.xls

I think in the long term no one has any doubt that the UK population has to fall.

But for me , I think the question is can we keep essential things going long enough to allow the population to fall "naturally".

By this I mean, the population drops (over a number of decades) BEFORE we get to the point where the minimum demands of the population > physical supply of food /water etc...

I think this is doable. If the FF requirements of essential industries like agriculture were far larger (say 40%+ of total Uk consumption) then I would agree with the doomers. But currently it is the regions 0.7%-1.0% depending on what you include!

After 100 years or so, when we really get to the dregs of energy supply (coal, wood and a little bio/coal gas, bio fuels) then if we are down to 20-30 million then the UK has a chance.

Given current birth rates, a death rate halfway between the current rate and that of Eastern Europe, we would easily hit these numbers. Im assuming of course immigration has stopped due to the lack of transport!

[MacG]

Basically, given a little imagination, there is a huge untapped potential for food production in the uk, mainly from suburbia, but also from underutilised and poorly utilised farmland..

I dont have problems with imagination on some kind of technical level about what is possible, my problems are on a social and political level. What is usually happening when a society is deprived of material riches? Do people pull together and share the burden as equally as they can? Or will there be a political playground for guys like Hitler to rise?

[Billhook]

T Baffled -

While we can project forward the effects of the uncertain energy constraints we face, all such projections plainly rest on assumptions about the climate, the degree of coherent leadership & consequent social cohesion, the creativity of commercial investment planning etc.

As none of these pivotal factors is predictable, I work on the notion that while we haven't a clue how things will pan out, it is pretty obvious that they could pan out to provide a transformation to a greatly preferable society.

Thus for me the focus is on just what are the most creative areas for campaigning for coherent change (as opposed to addressing problems in isolation),
and on just how soon we can establish a well-grounded exemplary rural community as a working research and dissemination centre.

Out of 60 million UK commoners, I wonder how many share this aspiration ?

regards,

Bill

[Totally_Baffled]

T Baffled -

While we can project forward the effects of the uncertain energy constraints we face, all such projections plainly rest on assumptions about the climate, the degree of coherent leadership & consequent social cohesion, the creativity of commercial investment planning etc.

As none of these pivotal factors is predictable, I work on the notion that while we haven't a clue how things will pan out, it is pretty obvious that they could pan out to provide a transformation to a greatly preferable society.

Thus for me the focus is on just what are the most creative areas for campaigning for coherent change (as opposed to addressing problems in isolation),
and on just how soon we can establish a well-grounded exemplary rural community as a working research and dissemination centre.

Out of 60 million UK commoners, I wonder how many share this aspiration ?

regards,

Bill

Good post and I agree.

As for how many "aspire" to this, not many at the moment I should think!

Having said that, before I discovered PO (and powerswitch/PO.com) I was a hard core capitalist. I had an appauling attitude of "bollocks to the environment and give me my material riches!"

If you told me 5 years ago that I would be taking an interest in these matters and taking action on a personal level (reducing energy use, learning horticulture etc etc ) I would of said you were mad!

I realise this maybe the case for many others on this site, maybe we are the exceptions, lets hope others make the "transition" in thinking when these matters become mainstream!

All the best

[mikepepler]

As for how many "aspire" to this, not many at the moment I should think!

Having said that, before I discovered PO (and powerswitch/PO.com) I was a hard core capitalist. I had an appauling attitude of "bollocks to the environment and give me my material riches!"

And this is precisely why we must continue to spread the word, if only out of selfishness, as if the majority of people are not aware of why problems are happening then they will bugger it up for the few of us that are and have tried to prepare. Even if people do no physical preparation, if they are aware of the problem and its implications then they can be psychologically prepared and will be much more likely to "pull together" than riot.

[bigjim]

I'm glad I found out about PO too. If someone told me this time last year I'd have an allotment I'd have laughed at them a lot. Glad I've got one now. And all the Porsches, Ferraris, Subaru turbos etc I see... all the things I'm supposed to aspire to... I think, 'get a proper car'.

[skeptik]

Basically, given a little imagination, there is a huge untapped potential for food production in the uk, mainly from suburbia, but also from underutilised and poorly utilised farmland..

I dont have problems with imagination on some kind of technical level about what is possible, my problems are on a social and political level. What is usually happening when a society is deprived of material riches? Do people pull together and share the burden as equally as they can? Or will there be a political playground for guys like Hitler to rise?

Yup, that seems entirely possible. I think a lot will depend on perceptions - why people think their standard of living is falling.

[Bandidoz]

TB - whereabouts in Hampshire do you hang out?

Perhaps you could come along to this event with us....
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... php?t=1938

[aliwood]

TB - do you remember Blue Peter?

In the days of Janet Ellis, Peter Duncan and Sarah Greene, I used to watch this. Do you remember they used to make things? You could make Tracey Island from 3 bits of card, some glue, a washing up liquid bottle (an essential piece of equipment I seem to remember), and some paint. Anything is possible with your imagination (didn't Willy Wonka say that?)

As someone has already said anything is possible if you just think about it. The problem at the moment is that the general populace is not being forced to think about it.

Someone mentioned the south east and the water situation there. I have a 400 gallon rain tank on order and rang the company a couple of weeks ago to query my delivery date. When I spoke to the chap he said that they had so many orders for Kent that they couldn't keep up. I guess that those people ordering hadn't done so before when they could have done, because they weren't forced to think about it.

Chin up chuck, you know you're doing the right thing, let those other people give themselves ulcers worrying about it while we just get on with it eh?

[DamianB]

TB - whereabouts in Hampshire do you hang out?

Perhaps you could come along to this event with us....
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... php?t=1938

...or is this any nearer?

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... php?t=1406

[Koba]

Hello, Totally_Baffled

Try not to get to down, with all the doom talk. I know it has been hard trying to talk to anyone about peak oil. Just look at it this way, society is going to change whether we like it or not, just take heart in the fact that change is good for you. Peak oil maybe a great blessing in disguise because it will force us to look deep within ourselves and from that great things can be achieved. Of course there are going to be hard times ahead, but that is when we can find the very best within ourselves to overcome the obstacles that face us in the near future.

Look at the benefits that peak oil may bring, a sense of community, families will have to become closer, we will have an apspreachion of the world around us that we don?t have now. We will learn to love the environment instead of abusing it. The future is ours for the making if we have the courage to fight for it! I will not lie to you, I am looking forward to peak oil because I can see the possibilities that it offers us, not just the negative that people seem to focus on. Just ask yourself what really matters in your life, your family and friends or your material possessions that this capitalistic society gives us.

Most people whether doom mongers or not focus on die-off, instead people should be focusing on how we live our lives, and the intensity of it, rather than how long our lives will be. Take heart in the fact that we have all got to die at some point, and peak oil is just another factor that we have to deal with.

You are one of the luck ones; you have the ability to make a difference to your family and friends, because you know what?s coming unlike 99 percent of the rest of the population.

It is better to embrace change, then to deny it. To borrow from Albert Camus, ?It is better to die on ones feet now, then to live the rest of my life on my knees?.

It is time for all of us to step up to the plate and take a swing? you never know what might happen.

[mikepepler]

I think in the long term no one has any doubt that the UK population has to fall.

But for me , I think the question is can we keep essential things going long enough to allow the population to fall "naturally".

Well, how's this for a start:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4768644.stm

In Europe 2.1 children per woman is considered to be the population replacement level. These are national averages:

Ireland: 1.99
France: 1.90
Norway: 1.81
Sweden 1.75
UK: 1.74
Netherlands: 1.73
Germany: 1.37
Italy: 1.33
Spain: 1.32
Greece: 1.29

Source: Eurostat - 2004 figures

[Andy Hunt]

Maybe the situation is more under control than we think. Not by us - but by nature.

As for whether I want PO to come soon - 'let it be' I think is the best option. I want to make the most of the time I have available to prepare, but at the same time when it comes it will be good because it will be the beginning of the solution to global warming.

It will come when it comes . . . a day of judgement when we all stand in the light of our mortal reality, no longer empowered gods of eternal economic growth basking in the illusion of infinite fossil energy. But some of us will have been quick, and prepared for an everlasting life powered by a more modest, but renewable energy . . .

[GD]

It seems Russia is undergoing the die off without a lack of fossil fuels.

[Andy Hunt]

Maybe Peak Population has already occurred in the West - very timely!

It wouldn't surprise me if the developing world was hit the hardest by Peak Oil.