Chu and Obama know

[Andy Hunt]

a growing planet.

I think you'll find the planet is actually not growing. In many senses it is shrinking.

It's the human population which is growing.

[emordnilap]

and 3. migation has already begun.

We all sincerely hope you're having fun.

Why? Mitigation blurble blurble.

Duh.

[Andy Hunt]

That's made my day.

[dudley]

My feeling, which is not based on much, is that Gordon Brown isn't PO aware, perhaps because he seems to have the personality of an accountant or barrister instead of a strategic thinker.

[Ludwig]

My feeling, which is not based on much, is that Gordon Brown isn't PO aware, perhaps because he seems to have the personality of an accountant or barrister instead of a strategic thinker.

Clearly there's "aware" and "aware". But if world leaders are not briefed on likely crises, then the world works very differently to how would seem logical, and to how all the history books say :\

If Gordon Brown doesn't know, it won't be because no one told him.

[MacG]

<snip>

But if world leaders are not briefed on likely crises, then the world works very differently to how would seem logical, and to how all the history books say.

That, Sir, I think is very much the case! History books are nothing but narratives, and it is highly improbable that they reflect realities to any higher degree.

I eagerly recommend "The Black Swan" for reading !!!

[Ludwig]

<snip>

But if world leaders are not briefed on likely crises, then the world works very differently to how would seem logical, and to how all the history books say.

That, Sir, I think is very much the case! History books are nothing but narratives, and it is highly improbable that they reflect realities to any higher degree.

Nonsense. There are always gaps in our knowledge of history, but to equate every word of historical research that's ever been published with pure fiction is, frankly, fatuous.

It is true that often a lot of time has to pass before things can be seen in perspective, or until enough vested interests have withered away for access to become available to important sources. In the meantime, good historians work with what they have, and admit their areas of ignorance.

And of course, some things will never be known. That should not stop us from trying to find out as much as we can, rather than dismissing all history as "narrative" (maybe because we just find it boring).

Do you deny the holocaust, based on your theory of history? Do you deny the existence of Queen Victoria?

Let me put it another way: why wouldn't world leaders be primed on the state of the world?

I eagerly recommend "The Black Swan" for reading !!!

Ah, the old "everything's random" bollocks. Appealing to people who don't like making the effort to understand things, because it satisfies them that there's nothing to understand!

[MacG]

<snip>

But if world leaders are not briefed on likely crises, then the world works very differently to how would seem logical, and to how all the history books say.

That, Sir, I think is very much the case! History books are nothing but narratives, and it is highly improbable that they reflect realities to any higher degree.

Nonsense. There are always gaps in our knowledge of history, but to equate every word of historical research that's ever been published with pure fiction is, frankly, fatuous.

It is true that often a lot of time has to pass before things can be seen in perspective, or until enough vested interests have withered away for access to become available to important sources. In the meantime, good historians work with what they have, and admit their areas of ignorance.

And of course, some things will never be known. That should not stop us from trying to find out as much as we can, rather than dismissing all history as "narrative" (maybe because we just find it boring).

Do you deny the holocaust, based on your theory of history? Do you deny the existence of Queen Victoria?

Let me put it another way: why wouldn't world leaders be primed on the state of the world?

I eagerly recommend "The Black Swan" for reading !!!

Ah, the old "everything's random" bollocks. Appealing to people who don't like making the effort to understand things, because it satisfies them that there's nothing to understand!

Starting to toss the toys out of the pram, are we?

This myth of the "informed leaders" is most probably just another layer of denial, and your reaction is some kind of confirmation of that hypothesis.

I mean, how could you *possibly* bring in the holocaust at this early stage of the discussion??? I have not mentioned that particular issue, so why bring it up? It's a highly emotional issue which only serve to confuse and taint the entire discussion.

[Vortex]

I think that Swine Flu has a secret side effect ... it makes people grumpy.

[biffvernon]

I eagerly recommend "The Black Swan" for reading !!!

Ah, the old "everything's random" bollocks. Appealing to people who don't like making the effort to understand things, because it satisfies them that there's nothing to understand!

That rather sounds as though you haven't read Taleb's 'The Black Swan'. Take MacG's advice.

[RenewableCandy]

I'm going to go one better than mentioning the Holocaust here:

after the Battle of Stalingrad (which I've been reading about, don't ask why) the Soviet Army found themselves with a "bulge" in their line, near Kursk (yes that's where the submarine got its name from). They knew the axis lot would try and cut them off here so they dug in. The axis lot knew they would do this but still couldn't avoid trying to cut off the "bulge" anyway. Even though Hitler himself said "the thought of having to go through with this turns my stomach".

My point is, he knew it wasn't going to work (it was called Operation Citadel if you want to look it up), but because it was such an obvious thing to do, he had to go through with it.

I think our leaders are in a similar situation: they have to carry on doing what looks like the "obvious" thing to do.

Citadel was a spectacular failure and is counted by those who know about these things as the turning-point in the war.

Incidentally the reason for the axis lot heading for Stalingrad in the first place was that they were on their way to the Caucasus. For the oil.

[Ludwig]

Starting to toss the toys out of the pram, are we?

This myth of the "informed leaders" is most probably just another layer of denial, and your reaction is some kind of confirmation of that hypothesis.

So what is your evidence that our leaders are uninformed? That Gordon doesn't come on telly every evening telling us about everything that's landed on his desk that day?

Your subscription to the cockup theory of history rather runs against your claim, voiced elsewhere, that global warming is an idea perpetrated by a conspiracy of scientists for purposes that aren't clear.

I mean, how could you *possibly* bring in the holocaust at this early stage of the discussion??? I have not mentioned that particular issue, so why bring it up? It's a highly emotional issue which only serve to confuse and taint the entire discussion.

That is cheap. I brought up the Holocaust as a well-known episode from "history", about which hundreds of books have been written, all of which by your argument are merely "narratives" and not to be trusted.

[MacG]

Starting to toss the toys out of the pram, are we?

This myth of the "informed leaders" is most probably just another layer of denial, and your reaction is some kind of confirmation of that hypothesis.

So what is your evidence that our leaders are uninformed? That Gordon doesn't come on telly every evening telling us about everything that's landed on his desk that day?

Your subscription to the cockup theory of history rather runs against your claim, voiced elsewhere, that global warming is an idea perpetrated by a conspiracy of scientists for purposes that aren't clear.

I mean, how could you *possibly* bring in the holocaust at this early stage of the discussion??? I have not mentioned that particular issue, so why bring it up? It's a highly emotional issue which only serve to confuse and taint the entire discussion.

That is cheap. I brought up the Holocaust as a well-known episode from "history", about which hundreds of books have been written, all of which by your argument are merely "narratives" and not to be trusted.

Hmm... This is pretty interesting. Every time I come across these mud-throwing evasion techniques I think *aha* - some taboo got scratched.

Listen please: The world is just to complex to be modeled by humans. Its like modeling weather. The world of politics is a real-time game and there is very little room for long-term planning. I know a couple of these politico-fellows, and they are quite occupied with day-to-day tasks and are sooo bored with predictions - they are used to predictions failing miserably all the time.

Real predictions, like peak-oil, can probably only be grasped from slightly outside the politico/econo/social system, this since the system has been formed on fossil energy since at least 300 years. To ask a politician to grasp peak-oil is like asking a fish to imagine a world without water.

*For the record: I do NOT suggest any conspiracy behind the AGW hysteria. Quite contrary I repeat the mantra: "Don't assume its a conspiracy if mere stupidity is enough for an explanation." Please stop throwing mud.

[Lord Beria3]

My limited understanding would suggest that Tony Blair 'got' PO towards the end of his time in government (probably after hanging out with Bush and his neo-con friends) which explained his near frantic drive to get us nucleur energy in the face of public opposition.

I don't think that the vast majority of Whitehall or the political parties are at all aware of peak oil - day-to-day running of Britain is extremely short term and there is a shocking lack of strategic planning.

The institutions that most 'get' peak oil are the military and the security services. Both have the type of institutional mindset (used to thinking about worst-case potentialities) which can handle it unlike say the Treasury which would think from a Economist perspective (all supply and demand).

Of course there are plans in action regarding fuel rationing which are already public (just go to cabinet office website) in particular the NHS. I suspect the security establishment (COBRA etc) have long-term plans regarding food rationing, Land Girl style programmes and the alike. Many of these things just require going back to the archives and seeing what we did during the war/fifties.

David Cameron is certainly aware, although doesn't realise how severe or soon its going to be. The Astors (which he has married into) are big supporters of population control due to resource limits so i imagine over the shooting on sundays, Lord Astor has expalined nis outlook to Dave.

[revdode]

David Cameron is certainly aware, although doesn't realise how severe or soon its going to be. The Astors (which he has married into) are big supporters of population control due to resource limits so i imagine over the shooting on sundays, Lord Astor has expalined nis outlook to Dave.

LOL I'm looking forward to someone joining them dots.

Cameron's clean new Tory dream old school eugenics supporter linked to (fictional) secret societies and new swine flu. It can't be coincidence.

How about the fabian society as a front for the English elite, an attempt to protect them from the masses by offering crumbs from their lords tables. I remember the trots running around with that one when I was a student, conspiracies didn't quite catch on the same in those days. Possibly no internet, possibly more trusting times. Most likely it's just they tended to be discussed after a few pints with a packet of bacon crisps, I'm sure alcohol suppresses serotonin which I read increases our ability to perceive patterns in information (reality is information to your brain) even when it's not there. Or maybe they spiked the crips