The monster of high oil prices awakenes?

[fifthcolumn]

Certainly the end of industrial civilisation - which is more than a single event - will in hindsight prove to have been due to energy shortfalls.

I personally have my doubts that industrial civilisation is going to collapse.
While it may do so in the sense that some countries are heading for the poor house, I doubt that on a global scale we're going back to pre-industrial times in our lifetime or that of our children.

Tell you what, let's make a bet: Every five years if the internet is still working, we'll take a poll to see if we agree that industrial civilisation has collapsed or not. If it has I owe you a tin of spam, if it hasn't you owe me a packet of cheese n onion.

And the sheer amount of leverage involved in loans has amplified the disaster, but the disaster would still have happened.

Now there's a thing. Would a ponzi scheme have collapsed on it's own even without high oil prices? I suspect it would.
Perhaps oil prices were driven high by credit induced excess DEMAND rather than a shortfall of supply?
I suspect we MAY get a real recovery in at least one major region of the world, while the Anglo countries remained mired in a slump. I think Europe will have an anemic recovery, but a recovery nevertheless. There is at least one "normal" busincess cycle left before we will see shortfall of supply affect things. This is merely a trial run.

In my opinion.

[Ludwig]

Certainly the end of industrial civilisation - which is more than a single event - will in hindsight prove to have been due to energy shortfalls.

I personally have my doubts that industrial civilisation is going to collapse.
While it may do so in the sense that some countries are heading for the poor house, I doubt that on a global scale we're going back to pre-industrial times in our lifetime or that of our children.

Tell you what, let's make a bet: Every five years if the internet is still working, we'll take a poll to see if we agree that industrial civilisation has collapsed or not. If it has I owe you a tin of spam, if it hasn't you owe me a packet of cheese n onion.

But if it does collapse, are you sure you will want to spare that tin of spam? Otherwise, you're on!

OTOH, I don't know at what point you can say industrial civilisation has "collapsed". As you imply, if it does collapse, it will collapse in some places before others.

Also, I read an account of the Argentine economic crisis, and the writer said that there was no single point at which you could say the "collapse happened", but that every now and then you'd look at individual incidents and think, "It wasn't like this 6 months ago."

And the sheer amount of leverage involved in loans has amplified the disaster, but the disaster would still have happened.

Now there's a thing. Would a ponzi scheme have collapsed on it's own even without high oil prices? I suspect it would.
Perhaps oil prices were driven high by credit induced excess DEMAND rather than a shortfall of supply?

I suspect we MAY get a real recovery in at least one major region of the world, while the Anglo countries remained mired in a slump. I think Europe will have an anemic recovery, but a recovery nevertheless. There is at least one "normal" busincess cycle left before we will see shortfall of supply affect things. This is merely a trial run.

In my opinion.

You may be right, and there may be some kind of recovery, though I'm not convinced there can be much of a sustained recovery because I think we've hit the roof of oil production.

That said, countries like Russia are in a very strong bargaining position and I suspect Russia may well see its standard of living rise for a good few years yet, while that of much of the West, especially the US and Britain, and of those nations who've been foolish enough to follow our model like Spain, will fall pretty sharply.

[contadino]

Maybe a good indicator of whether industry has collapsed will be the availability of tins of Spam. After all, nobody could seriously claim that Spam is a cottage industry.

Although using that indicator, I'm all for industrial collapse.

[Ludwig]

Maybe a good indicator of whether industry has collapsed will be the availability of tins of Spam. After all, nobody could seriously claim that Spam is a cottage industry.

Although using that indicator, I'm all for industrial collapse.

Fry it. It's delicious.

[Papillon]

The price of oil has gone up by as much as 30% during the month of May!!! That's the biggest percentage rise since 1999. I've found that out in a news bulltin in a different language, but can't see why it should be faulty.

[biffvernon]

A percentage of buggerall is still buggerall (as someone once said in a very different context).

[woodburner]

You don't have to listen to the news, the price is at the bottom of every page on this site, or directly from www.oil-price.net. As to bugger all, May price has gone from $50ish to $66+. A bit more than BA I think.

[biffvernon]

Still cheaper than a bottle water is some shops.

So cheap it means we'll use it fast enough to wreck the planet.

[woodburner]

Arguably true, but it's within living memory that the worlds population was around 1/4 of what it is now. I can't help feeling that might have a lot to do with it.

[ziggy12345]

Give life (in all its forms) Energy and nutrients and it will expand to use them up then contract so that a steady state is reached. Although most people think they are a higher form of life we are just basically plants (or most of the people I know are)

[Ludwig]

The price of oil has gone up by as much as 30% during the month of May!!! That's the biggest percentage rise since 1999. I've found that out in a news bulltin in a different language, but can't see why it should be faulty.

Well, the lesson from the last oil price spike seems to be that speculation amplifies any "natural" change in the price of oil. Once the price starts going up again, everyone wants in, until the economy takes another hit. Then the price goes down again for a while - probably down below its "natural" level, because of the exodus of speculators.

Of course there's no doubt that the general trend will be upward and that at some point the price will hit the roof and stay there.

[ziggy12345]

Back up to over $69. When will it get to $100 again?

[SILVERHARP2]

Back up to over $69. When will it get to $100 again?

2018?

[Papillon]

Back up to over $69. When will it get to $100 again?

2018?

At this rate - next winter?? Before?? I guess whenever the economy "recovers" enough to get another kick in the b011s

[ziggy12345]

I'm guessing way before then