Ireland

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 10 Dec 2010, 14:58

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/je ... -pictures/

When asked what the biggest risks to the German recovery are, businesses tend to answer that it is not the crisis in the fringe economies of the eurozone, but lack of a sufficient supply of skilled labour and rising commodity prices.

The provinces are currently being broken by borrowing 5% above a base rate of 0.5%, if the Germans win, it'll be 5% above a base rate of 5%.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 10 Dec 2010, 16:55

The biggest risks to recovery are recovery itself.

This says why.

For the bankers, it’s a dream deal. When they make profits from gambling in the good times, they pocket them. When they make losses in the bad times, you and I pick up the tab. The people we have been told for decades to worship as “wealth creators” turned out to be the biggest wealth-sucking parasites in history. The only part of the banking sector that isn’t partying like it’s 1999 is the only one we actually need: lending to ordinary people for mortgages and small businesses. We bailed them out, but they are refusing to bail us out.

[The bailouts] saved our financial system from driving off a cliff in 2008, [but] we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 26 Feb 2011, 08:24

snow hope wrote:I posted this in another thread the other day.

"I was in Dublin at the weekend and it is saddening to see the number of people begging in the streets and sleeping rough in shop doorways from tea-time onwards. Tough times are visiting Ireland. They have another budget due on the 7th December I think and according to the Irish Sunday papers it is going to be the toughest most austere budget ever! Apparently the ECB has been lending money to Ireland over the last year and it amounts to approx 250billion Euro so far.

Some think the IMF will be running Ireland by February 2011. Things are going to get very unstable down there."

I think we will see social unrest down there soon. People are really starting to get angry about what their *ankers and Govt. have done over the last few years.

BBC News - 26/02/11

The Irish Republic's main ruling party, Fianna Fail, has suffered a huge election defeat months after the EU/IMF bail-out, an exit poll says.

Fine Gael, its traditional rival, is poised to take over but without an overall majority, according to the poll released by state broadcaster RTE.

Party leader Enda Kenny has said he will try to re-negotiate the terms of the 85bn-euro (£72bn) bail-out.

Article continues ...

Post by **adam2** » 26 Feb 2011, 11:25

Is "re-negotiate" a polite term for default ?

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 28 Feb 2011, 12:50

'Try' is a good word.

Nope, we're facing mass privatisation of Irish assets plus swingeing cuts in services to chip away at the debt. The interest alone in 2014 is forecast to be 20% of Irish GDP.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 28 Feb 2011, 14:07

But at least the single currency will survive, for a bit...

Greens were wiped out I see.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 28 Feb 2011, 14:16

A lot of politicians have received a bloody nose and have not been returned. The Irish are good at calling a spade .................... a spade!
The country is really screwed though. It is hard to visualise how they will get out of this mess in anything less than multiple decades.....

In many respects they have returned to the situation prior to the "celtic tiger" of the late nineties and early noughties when Ireland really took off financially.

It is sad.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 28 Feb 2011, 16:05

Snow Hope
Default.

If Emordnilap is right, Ireland will be spending more on interest than the UK spends on Healthcare and the State Pension.

There only hope is default, but that will blow apart EUropes banking sector again.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 01 Mar 2011, 00:50

Yes, but what happens when a country defaults?

What happens if a number of countries default?

What if Europe defaults? Does the rest of the world then default?

Dominoes anyone??

House of Cards?

Post by **clv101** » 01 Mar 2011, 10:14

What happens if EVERYONE defaults? All 'money' simply vanishes?

The world still has exactly the same number of people with the same skills, exactly the same amount of water, fields, energy, machines, buildings etc... Why can't the system be 'reset'?

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 01 Mar 2011, 10:33

clv101 wrote:What happens if EVERYONE defaults? All 'money' simply vanishes?

The world still has exactly the same number of people with the same skills, exactly the same amount of water, fields, energy, machines, buildings etc... Why can't the system be 'reset'?

Because the trust and promises which money represents have been broken. You are less likely to want to send things to China if the last time you did so, you did not get paid (or go to work, or...),

Peter.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 01 Mar 2011, 11:18

Clv
I owe round about £100,000, I'd love for the system to be reset.

The people to whom I owe that £100,000, the people who are reliant on me paying that money back to afford frivolous expenses like food, are probably less keen.
Understandably so.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 01 Mar 2011, 11:45

clv101 wrote:What happens if EVERYONE defaults? All 'money' simply vanishes?

The world still has exactly the same number of people with the same skills, exactly the same amount of water, fields, energy, machines, buildings etc... Why can't the system be 'reset'?

That might be to the advantage of the indebted, individuals and nations. It would make at least the present round of poverty, history.

Bring it on.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 01 Mar 2011, 12:23

Blue Peter wrote:
clv101 wrote:What happens if EVERYONE defaults? All 'money' simply vanishes?

The world still has exactly the same number of people with the same skills, exactly the same amount of water, fields, energy, machines, buildings etc... Why can't the system be 'reset'?
Because the trust and promises which money represents have been broken. You are less likely to want to send things to China if the last time you did so, you did not get paid (or go to work, or...),

Seems to me the risk is more the other way - Chinese manufacturers not getting their money from their Western customers.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 01 Mar 2011, 12:42

Seems to me the risk is more the other way - Chinese manufacturers not getting their money from their Western customers.

I'd be surprised if the Chinese Mfg'ers are giving 90 day credit on much of their produce.
The only time I've ever been involved with importing anything from the far east, it was cash at the dock.
Sofas have a 12 week delivery period, because you pay, they buy, and its shipped over.

A general default would hammer people with large savings.
Those people are the retired, and those nearing retirement, and of course the insurance companies that pay them annuities.

The third world poor would find themselves burnt the worst, because they are the weakest.