New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 27 Feb 2020, 17:09

Coronavirus outbreak: WHO says more new cases reported outside China than inside .... WHO statement Thursday 27 Feb 2020

More 'window of opportunity' guff.

Also 'containment will stop this in its tracks' ... but be prepared if it doesn't.

https://youtu.be/6bKjQ4Q9fFU

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 27 Feb 2020, 17:30

Doodily, the CoVID-19 coronavirus belongs to the same family as many of the viruses that cause the common cold. Itâ€™s got similar properties â€” itâ€™s highly transmissible from one human respiratory system to another, and causes an upper respiratory infection that, in some cases, turns into pneumonia and becomes serious. Apparently quite a few people who catch it show no symptoms at all or have an ordinary cold â€” mild fever, runny nose, you know the score. The great majority of the people whoâ€™ve died from it were very old, were in bad health already, or worked themselves to exhaustion. (This happens to doctors routinely in epidemics.)

At this point it looks as though itâ€™s going to become a global pandemic, meaning that most people will be exposed to it. If youâ€™re old, sick, or immunocompromised, or if you work in a health care field that will be involved in treating cases, you could be at serious risk. Otherwise, treat it as you would a case of the flu. Donâ€™t use health care facilities when the epidemic is moving through your community, unless you absolutely have to â€” theyâ€™ll be working overtime to deal with the people who need serious medical help. Also, remember that this is a normal part of life; most people in most periods of history have had to deal with epidemics that were much, much worse.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 27 Feb 2020, 17:30

Greers take. I agree. By may/june the hysteria will be dying down and we will largely return to normal.

Minus a few less elderly folks.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 27 Feb 2020, 17:33

By may/june the hysteria will be dying down and we will largely return to normal.

If that happens questions will be asked about the over-reaction, especially in China.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 27 Feb 2020, 17:36

What will this do to the economy? What do we import from China which will cause problems if missing?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 27 Feb 2020, 18:24

Musings : the underclasses might be zapped by this

The homeless on the streets, the poor living in shite housing, the malnourished, drug addicts etc are likely to be zapped by this bug.

The prison population and (as noted earlier) the care home population might also be badly hit.

This could be especially prevalent in the third world ... and in the US where you need to pay a fortune for tests and treatments ... which might not be covered even with health insurance.

The powers that be - and in fact many ordinary people - might not be too fussed by this.

Post by **mikepepler** » 27 Feb 2020, 18:27

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... tory-cases

England only has 15 available beds for adults to treat the most severe respiratory failure and will struggle to cope if there are more than 28 patients who need them if the number of coronavirus cases rises, according to the government and NHS documents.

Ministers have revealed in parliamentary answers that there are 15 available beds for adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) treatment at five centres across England. The government said this could be increased in an emergency. There were 30 such beds in total available during the 2018-19 winter flu season.

Post by **adam2** » 27 Feb 2020, 18:31

The most serious cases, with the least chance of recovery, may have to be euthanised, though I bet they wont call it that.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 27 Feb 2020, 18:47

Vortex2 wrote:What will this do to the economy? What do we import from China which will cause problems if missing?

In the short term quite a bit bordering on chaos and collapse. In the longer term all we import from them was once made here or elsewhere and can be remade here but you can't build and staff a factory overnight.
In the meantime we will all probably get a lesson in getting by with what you have in hand and not constantly reaching for replacements.
The Vermont saying goes: "Use it Up, Wear It Out, Make it Do or Do Without!".

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 27 Feb 2020, 19:05

Vortex2 wrote:What will this do to the economy? What do we import from China which will cause problems if missing?

Two weeks ago I ordered four new tyres for the car, plus an unfitted spare to keep in the garage. As a backup for unfixable punctures, that's in addition to the full size spare in the boot.

Today, got round to fitting the order. My garage man says tyres are already getting difficult to source, Pirellis unobtainable. Says I made a good call.

Actually, it was Chris V who alerted us to this. So, yeah, good call... Thanks!

But... Are the tyre suppliers alerting and retaining stock for priority users? Thinking emergency services and so on. Here's hoping.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 27 Feb 2020, 19:17

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:What will this do to the economy? What do we import from China which will cause problems if missing?
Two weeks ago I ordered four new tyres for the car, plus an unfitted spare to keep in the garage. As a backup for unfixable punctures, that's in addition to the full size spare in the boot.

Today, got round to fitting the order. My garage man says tyres are already getting difficult to source, Pirellis unobtainable. Says I made a good call.

Actually, it was Chris V who alerted us to this. So, yeah, good call... Thanks!

But... Are the tyre suppliers alerting and retaining stock for priority users? Thinking emergency services and so on. Here's hoping.

Poo ... more money to spend.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 27 Feb 2020, 19:26

Consider how cheap they are now. Consider it a hedge against inflation.

A few pages back in the thread I looked up the global tyre stats. Over 2/3 made in China and Japan, the rest in the USA.

Post by **clv101** » 27 Feb 2020, 19:27

Vortex2 wrote:Poo ... more money to spend.

But only money you'd be spending anyway. Don't think I've bought anything significant due to this virus that I wouldn't have bought anyway - I've just brought purchases forward a few months in anticipation of supply disruption or price hikes. Things like tyres, shoes, trousers, tool consumables (spare blades, screws, nails, glue), stuff for kids etc.

I smashed the screen on my phone about six months ago. Been soldiering on but due to this virus I bought a replacement recently in expectation of this one failing completely next time I drop it. The model I bought has gone up 20% in the last 3 weeks. However, the tyres I bought three weeks ago are still in stock and 6% cheaper!

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 27 Feb 2020, 19:35

Almost All Patients in South Korean Psychiatric Ward Have Virus

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... have-virus

100 out of 101 is the data I have seen on the web, with a CFR of 7% .. not mentioned in the article.

# of confirmed / # of admitted psychiatric patients - 100 / 101 (99.09%)

Current deaths / confirmed - 7 / 100 (7.00%) - 13.64 times more than the rest of cases in Korea (5/1046â‰ˆ0.47%, 7/0.47â‰ˆ14.64)

Post by **clv101** » 27 Feb 2020, 19:39

Anyone seen good data on Diamond Princess, is the cohort still be tracked now they have disembarked? Any new cases shown up? How many recovered? Died, 4 so far?