Peak Oil: Two Approaches, One Answer

[clv101]

Here's the latest article from my blog, I think it's important to point out that there are two completely different ways of calculating when peak oil will occur and importantly they agree with one another!

Here the geologists method of Hubbert and Campbell is compared to the analysis?s method of Chris Skrebowski with uncanny agreement.

There are two distinct ways to think about and present the phenomenon of peak oil. It?s easy to describe what peak oil actually is, it?s the global peak in extraction rate of petroleum. The difficulty of course is determining the date and associated extraction rate of peak oil. This is where I see the two camps.

http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/06/21

[DamianB]

Good article Chris.

I think its also important to point out that global supply peak is another issue and that this is constrained by the number of tankers, pipeline capacity and refining capacity. My understanding of this situation is that these constraints may well define the highest ever output of oil which is quite logical as no oil company will invest in infrastructure at the margin if its only going to be used for a couple of years.