Where do I start?

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 29 Nov 2007, 06:15

MisterE wrote: Defo yourself and I can think of lots of others in the same camp mwuahahahhaaa

Thanks for the compliment big man!

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 29 Nov 2007, 09:22

http://www.idleworm.com/oil/movie.shtml

This cartoons made by a poster called dermot on latoc the man has real talent like walt disney quality meets peak oil

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 29 Nov 2007, 09:47

Excellent video!

A very quick overview of Peak Oil .. ideal for an "instant introduction".

Tracy P · Post by **Tracy P** » 29 Nov 2007, 11:16

Good video that!
I have posted a link on the idle foundation forum - where a lot of people are listening! Idle people do like a good conspiracy!

littlejimmy · Post by **littlejimmy** » 29 Nov 2007, 12:41

That is brilliant. I especially like the bit with the dollar bill jumping over the oil.

Mr Livered · Post by **Mr Livered** » 03 Dec 2007, 11:10

Thanks again people for all your help in pointing out reading matter, videos, etc. I have done a lot of reading up in the last few days.

I have to say I am not 100% convinced. Please don't take that as an attack on your beliefs; far from it - Lord knows I'm a million miles from being expert enough to criticise anything yet. It's just that I need to be sure before I start waving the peak oil flag and stocking up on baked beans.

Here's the problem: peak oil theory makes perfect sense. It's obvious that we are very dependant on oil and it is obvious that it is a finite resource. So far so good. However, it is also obvious that nobody can say for certain exactly when we will get to the stage when oil is essentially unavailable. I haven't (yet) seen anything which has convinced me that alternative power sources and manufacturing techniques, etc, will not allow us to make a relatively smooth transition from oil dependancy before it runs out, whenever that may be.

Essentially, there are two unknowns: (i) how long oil will last and (ii) how long it will take us to find viable replacement(s). So the question is, how can we be so sure that we will run out first?

I hope you all take this post for what it is: naive questions from an ignoramus, not a dissing of your belief and scholarly research.

littlejimmy · Post by **littlejimmy** » 03 Dec 2007, 11:20

Mr Livered wrote:Thanks again people for all your help in pointing out reading matter, videos, etc. I have done a lot of reading up in the last few days.

I have to say I am not 100% convinced. Please don't take that as an attack on your beliefs; far from it - Lord knows I'm a million miles from being expert enough to criticise anything yet. It's just that I need to be sure before I start waving the peak oil flag and stocking up on baked beans.

Here's the problem: peak oil theory makes perfect sense. It's obvious that we are very dependant on oil and it is obvious that it is a finite resource. So far so good. However, it is also obvious that nobody can say for certain exactly when we will get to the stage when oil is essentially unavailable. I haven't (yet) seen anything which has convinced me that alternative power sources and manufacturing techniques, etc, will not allow us to make a relatively smooth transition from oil dependancy before it runs out, whenever that may be.

Essentially, there are two unknowns: (i) how long oil will last and (ii) how long it will take us to find viable replacement(s). So the question is, how can we be so sure that we will run out first?

I hope you all take this post for what it is: naive questions from an ignoramus, not a dissing of your belief and scholarly research.

There's nothing wrong with that assessment, Mr. L. I'm much the same. I think I fall in the middle ground between complete optimist and out-and-out doomer, but that changes from day to day.

What I am sure about is that there will be a peak oil supply crunch in the next few years, but what I'm not sure about is when and how it is going to manifest itself. My own belief (based on nothing more than a gut feeling) is that there will be a time of transition which won't be pleasant, but it won't be complete chaos. We will come out of the other side and will have the necessary lifestyle changes forced upon us, and in my opinion these changes are good because they will help mitigate Climate Change at the same time, and will help people connect again - with their community and with Mother Earth.

But then again, when I watch films like "What A Way To Go" and encounter the utter stubbornness of people to accept that this way of life is unsustainable and I see all the hundreds of cars and lorries and I begin to think to myself that we are in for a big fall...

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 03 Dec 2007, 14:12

I guess my take in this is that yes, it would be possible for the world (or most of the developed world) to transition to an alternative energy model without complete collapse IF there was a globally recognised need to perform the transition AND international political agreement on how to allocate scarce resources during the transition period. It would require an end to exponential economic growth, and a complete redesign of the global economic system. It would require a global policy on managed population reduction through humane methods.

Unfortunately I see no evidence of any of this happening. I see plenty of evidence of the major world powers doing the opposite. 'The American way of life is not negotiable' et. al. Also, peak oil is only one of the limits to growth that the human race is rapidly approaching.

Even with all this I think it is possible for small areas of the planet to get by relatively unscathed, but I have no way of knowing which areas. The only rational approach I can see to this problem is

1. Raise the alarm to those prepared to listen.
2. Plan for a locally organised, small scale low energu society in my own backyard
3. Prepare for the worst
4. Hope for the best
5. Make the most of the best parts of my life - my family.

syberberg · Post by **syberberg** » 03 Dec 2007, 17:39

Mr. Livered,

A few things that might help sort things out in your head for you (well, they helped me get my head around it)...

Peak oil isn't about "running out" of oil completely, it's when global demand outstrips global supply.

Peak oil is also about running out of the easily accessible and easy to refine oil. (For a great jargon buster, go to http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/).

Hope that helps.