What do you think would happen if something similar to covid turns up in the near future?

[UndercoverElephant]

Let's imagine it is an eerie re-run of early 2020. Some novel virus turns up which is transmissible and capable of killing humans, and it looks to be potentially at least as threatening as Covid. It's clearly spreading (somewhere), and it is clear that it will take months at best to produce a vaccine, etc...

Two things are different. Firstly we have the knowledge and experience gained from the covid pandemic (in the widest sense, not just clinical). Secondly, most of the world is now much more heavily indebted than it was (mainly because of the pandemic, but not entirely).

The obvious question is whether we would lock down again, get even further in debt again, etc... or whether a decision would be taken that this time we need to just "let it rip" and go for herd immunity the natural way. But I am also asking a more general question. What do you think would happen, in terms of the response?

[Ralphw2]

First I would say that, like the military, the medical world always prepares for the last pandemic, not the next one. The next virus will catch us just as much off guard.

Second, any government I can forsee in the next decade, will still be beholden to the current financial rules, and we are already too much in debt to financially survive another lockdown long enough to significantly reduce mortality, The government will play down the risks, provide no financial support, the rich will quit their jobs and ride out the death in their seaside second homes, at least as long as the supermarket delivery service holds up. The rest will have to take their chances.

[clv101]

"least as long as the supermarket delivery service holds up"

The thing about Covid was pretty much all vital services, did just about continue. Food, energy, Internet, financial services, local government, health are etc. It was pretty touch and go for a few weeks. Had the fatality rate been a bit higher, or impacting people in their 20s and 30s as it did folk in their 80s, then there'd be a real risk of mass absenteeism - all those 'essential workers' might not turn up.

[UndercoverElephant]

First I would say that, like the military, the medical world always prepares for the last pandemic, not the next one. The next virus will catch us just as much off guard.

Second, any government I can forsee in the next decade, will still be beholden to the current financial rules, and we are already too much in debt to financially survive another lockdown long enough to significantly reduce mortality, The government will play down the risks, provide no financial support, the rich will quit their jobs and ride out the death in their seaside second homes, at least as long as the supermarket delivery service holds up. The rest will have to take their chances.

In other words pretty much what the government initially intended to do in response to covid, before it became politically too difficult for them to maintain that course.

I also don't see the economic situation improving this side of some sort of major monetary reset, so maybe the response to covid was a historical anomaly, never to be repeated.

[northernmonkey]

Just a few points of fact.

a) The deaths by all causes rate for 2020 and 2021 was lower, as a percentage of the population, than half of the years between 2000 and 2019.

b) The death by all causes rate for 2020 and 2021 was lower, as a percentage of the population, than over 70% of all the years between 1950 and 1999

c) The number of people who died in 2020 and 2021, as a percentage of the population, by demography of age and preexisting infirmities was historically typical. It was somewhat atypical in terms of "cause of death" on death certificates. That is to say, there was a measurable increase in the number of elderly dying of respiratory illnesses. But, this was more or less precisely offset by a reduction in the number of those same elderly dying of other causes. Other causes which they would have been expected, statistically, to have died of in those two years in any event. Hence (a).

d) Drilling down further into the "respiratory illness" mortality category, we find that almost nobody died of the flu in 2020 and 2021. Which is historically unprecedented. A certain percentage of the very elderly and already very infirm will die each and every year of the flu. In the end, we all have to die of something and flu just happens to be one of the lowest hanging fruit in that regard and always has been.

But, as I mentioned, next to nobody died of the flu in 2020 and 2021. They all died of Covid19.

Apparently.

All of the above statistics may be found on either the ONS (2000 to 2020) or the National Archives (1950 to 1999) for anyone who cares to look. Though, in my experience, I have found that if someone wasn't prepared to look before now, they are likely to be highly psychologically resistant to doing so now.

Such is life and human nature.

[Ralphw2]

Nobody died of flu because of the lockdowns. The lockdowns stopped a lot more people dying of covid, and as a side effect, reduced the spread of less virulent erspiratory viruses to effectively zero. The end result looks very similar to a normal year, but without the lockdowns a very much larger than normal fraction of the population would have died. The lockdowns bought time for the development of vaccines, and also reduced to the rate of infection to a level that did not totally overwhelm the medical services, or made so many working age people ill at the same time that essential services ground to a halt resulting in far more harm to social structure and the economy and health.

The lockdowns also sharply reduced the rates of road accident deaths, and work related deaths for obvious reasons. I would not be surprised if suicide and murder rates went up.

The lockdowns were a major economic cost, and a significant knock on physical and mental health cost, particularly to children, particularly to my daughter, but the alternative would have been worse.

If we get another pandemic, we no longer have the economic reserve to sustain the same level of lockdown. We may find out the hard way how much worse it could have been.

[RenewableCandy]

Just 2 quick points of information:
'Herd immunity' is not a thing in the case of a disease like Covid19, where re-infections can occur after just a few months.
Worse still, the re-infections don't appear to be any milder than 1st-infections - in fact if anything the effect seems to be cumulative.

[northernmonkey]

Just 2 quick points of information:
'Herd immunity' is not a thing in the case of a disease like Covid19, where re-infections can occur after just a few months.
Worse still, the re-infections don't appear to be any milder than 1st-infections - in fact if anything the effect seems to be cumulative.

These are very specific, biologically material statements/assertions

Got any material evidence for them you'd like to share?

[emordnilap]

These are very specific, biologically material statements/assertions

Got any material evidence for them you'd like to share?

I got covid badly, then again a year later somewhat similarly. Since the first bout I was never really free of it. It hits the immune system in a way that one finds it hard to shake off completely. Anecdotal of course but it appeared to affect everyone in slightly different ways.

[northernmonkey]

These are very specific, biologically material statements/assertions

Got any material evidence for them you'd like to share?

I got covid badly, then again a year later somewhat similarly. Since the first bout I was never really free of it. It hits the immune system in a way that one finds it hard to shake off completely. Anecdotal of course but it appeared to affect everyone in slightly different ways.

Were you vaccinated?

[adam2]

I would expect even more conspiracy theories, and more promptly than last time.
New disease spread by wifi, or by electricity, or by LED lighting.
Spread by russia, or by Ukraine.
The vaccine when it becomes available is in fact to enslave white people and sterilise black people, or perhaps the other way round this time.

[emordnilap]

These are very specific, biologically material statements/assertions

Got any material evidence for them you'd like to share?

I got covid badly, then again a year later somewhat similarly. Since the first bout I was never really free of it. It hits the immune system in a way that one finds it hard to shake off completely. Anecdotal of course but it appeared to affect everyone in slightly different ways.

Were you vaccinated?

No.

[Potemkin Villager]

I got covid badly, then again a year later somewhat similarly. Since the first bout I was never really free of it. It hits the immune system in a way that one finds it hard to shake off completely. Anecdotal of course but it appeared to affect everyone in slightly different ways.

Were you vaccinated?

No.

I am intrigued as to what basis you decided not to get vaccinated and if you still feel it was a wise decision based on credible information?
Personally I took everything on offer and am very glad I did.

[Ralphw2]

In the last few weeks many people in our town have come down with bad viral infections, including 3 out of 4 in this house, that matches the symptoms of the latest covid variant. I am going to test today with one of our dwindling stock of free covid test kits. I would not be surprised if the country is in the middle of a covid infection wave, but no one is testing or reporting it now.

Tested. Two positive, one already recovered.

[emordnilap]

I am intrigued as to what basis you decided not to get vaccinated and if you still feel it was a wise decision based on credible information?
Personally I took everything on offer and am very glad I did.

You didn't suffer in any way? That's good.

Again, I can only offer anecdotage (that should be a word). I know people vaccinated who came down with something covid-like; some unvaccinated who did. And vice-versa. I trusted my general mistrust of medicine and maybe I was wrong to. Maybe I'd've reacted badly to the vaccine, as some did.

Overall, I enjoyed the whole covid era, so perhaps I should say no more.