Just a quick sanity check:
* Do you REALLY REALLY believe that the world will look different in 2012?
* Will there be fewer cars on the street?
* Will international air travel be more difficult or more expensive?
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* Will the economy seem much different?
* Will there be fuel or electricity or gas supply problems?
Although I know "The Facts" I simply can't imagine the world looking much different in 2012.
I still expect to be dropping in for a coffee in town once a week followed by a quick browse of HMV and then the bookshop.
To be frank I expect to see Business As Usual even as far out as 2027.
Do YOU too have problems REALLY believing that major change is coming?
To me it all seems so academic at the moment ...
Do you REALLY believe that problems will arrive by 2012?
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Yup, recession.
Fewer people in the pubs, closed restaurants and takeaways. In fact things generally looking a bit tattier, with windows going unpainted, repairs being put off etc.
less cars on the road, but not really noticeable, more like a school holiday traffic level. (less latest model cars)
More empty shops to let, high streets show the signs of a downturn in retail.
Oh, and a return to strikes and general discontent.
Apart from that, not much, oh, music might get better.
Fewer people in the pubs, closed restaurants and takeaways. In fact things generally looking a bit tattier, with windows going unpainted, repairs being put off etc.
less cars on the road, but not really noticeable, more like a school holiday traffic level. (less latest model cars)
More empty shops to let, high streets show the signs of a downturn in retail.
Oh, and a return to strikes and general discontent.
Apart from that, not much, oh, music might get better.
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Kentucky Fried Panda
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What was that Chinese curse, "may you live in interesting times"?
I think we're post peak already, here in the UK we definitely are. Oil and NG depletion will become more obvious in the next 10-15 years in other fields around the world.
I think by 2012 we'll be seeing the beginning of the end of the oil age.
I think we're post peak already, here in the UK we definitely are. Oil and NG depletion will become more obvious in the next 10-15 years in other fields around the world.
I think by 2012 we'll be seeing the beginning of the end of the oil age.
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simonrichards912
- Posts: 76
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
Well according to wikipedia the astronomical close shave will be to the tune of about 16650 million miles, on the 31st of January 2012. There are all sorts of rather exciting metaphysical apocalyptic predictions for 2012 though (see the last sections of the wiki 2012 page).simonrichards912 wrote:Yes I do. By the way did you know there's supposed to be a comet heading for earth in 2012??
But seriously, I think the world will be very different well before 2012.2012 is sometimes claimed to be a great year of spiritual transformation (or apocalypse). Many esoteric sources interpret the completion of the twelfth B'ak'tun cycle in the Long Count of the Maya calendar to mean there will be a major change in world order.
To be honest Vortex, I find that you are bit of a Jekyll and Hyde! For this post, you appear to be in total denial. I think you are 
I expect the UK to be in deep recession, if not depression by 2012 - only 5 years away, but they will be a long 5 years I feel.
I expect the oil situation to be clear to the masses by then - the thinking ones anyway. I expect that depletion will be visibly occuring in global terms and that we will be experiencing fuel shortages and that fuel will have gone up in price very dramatically - ?5 a litre is not impossible.
I expect further wars will have/be occuring as the key world powers attempt to ringfence the oil resources that are ESSENTIAL to their ongoing existance. Many countries will have stopped exporting by then - I imagine they will have to have military persuasion to change.
The stock markets will be shot to bits. In many respects I suspect many people will not really be understanding what is happening. Governments may still be describing it as the War on Terror and how the terrorists are preventing the free movement/production/exploration of oil. Probably the majority of the masses will still believe this, but a substantial sized minority of the world will realise what is going on.
At best we may see some swings from high prices to lower prices as demand for the black gold drops off temporarily - I suppose this might be a short plateau - but I have never really believed the plateau idea - countries will stop exporting - they are not stupid. Unemployment will become a very big problem as many companies in certain industries go to the wall, with all the knock-on effects that this is known to have. Once people become unemployed in large numbers things go down hill quickly. In terms of the last 40 years, Joe Public will see the situation as chaotic. In anybodies eyes we will see the situation as bad to very bad.
When the Olympics were announced for London in 2012, I predicted (more thought into myself really) that thay may not take place. I now think they may still be held to try and portray normality, but they may just as well be postponed depending on how bad the wars become.
This is why I am a doomer - because I can't see things being much better than above. Feel free to convince me I am wrong - I really would love to be and I do mean it!
BAU in 2027? I nearly choked on my tea! Catch a grip man - you surely can't really think that?
I expect the UK to be in deep recession, if not depression by 2012 - only 5 years away, but they will be a long 5 years I feel.
I expect the oil situation to be clear to the masses by then - the thinking ones anyway. I expect that depletion will be visibly occuring in global terms and that we will be experiencing fuel shortages and that fuel will have gone up in price very dramatically - ?5 a litre is not impossible.
I expect further wars will have/be occuring as the key world powers attempt to ringfence the oil resources that are ESSENTIAL to their ongoing existance. Many countries will have stopped exporting by then - I imagine they will have to have military persuasion to change.
The stock markets will be shot to bits. In many respects I suspect many people will not really be understanding what is happening. Governments may still be describing it as the War on Terror and how the terrorists are preventing the free movement/production/exploration of oil. Probably the majority of the masses will still believe this, but a substantial sized minority of the world will realise what is going on.
At best we may see some swings from high prices to lower prices as demand for the black gold drops off temporarily - I suppose this might be a short plateau - but I have never really believed the plateau idea - countries will stop exporting - they are not stupid. Unemployment will become a very big problem as many companies in certain industries go to the wall, with all the knock-on effects that this is known to have. Once people become unemployed in large numbers things go down hill quickly. In terms of the last 40 years, Joe Public will see the situation as chaotic. In anybodies eyes we will see the situation as bad to very bad.
When the Olympics were announced for London in 2012, I predicted (more thought into myself really) that thay may not take place. I now think they may still be held to try and portray normality, but they may just as well be postponed depending on how bad the wars become.
This is why I am a doomer - because I can't see things being much better than above. Feel free to convince me I am wrong - I really would love to be and I do mean it!
BAU in 2027? I nearly choked on my tea! Catch a grip man - you surely can't really think that?
Real money is gold and silver
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mikepepler
- Site Admin
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Yes, I think it will be different, which is why I'm so relieved we're finally in the process of converting our savings into a piece of woodland.
If things are still OK in 5 years, then it won't matter, because we're going to be enjoying our new lifestyle regardless. We've changed too much to be happy working in the "normal world" any more!
If things are still OK in 5 years, then it won't matter, because we're going to be enjoying our new lifestyle regardless. We've changed too much to be happy working in the "normal world" any more!
The big problem is the whole impression the modern way of life forces on us of never ending consumerism, always striving to give you the next carrot to chase, a flat screen hi def TV, holiday clothes, that shiny new car it could all be yours, we are living the dream. I fear the cold flannel will be applied soon, oh what a rude awakening this way doth come, but when? With all the smoke mirrors and shiny things it's hard to tell from the middle of this media and economic alice in wonderland matrix.
Visited friends of my wife yesterday. 'Working' class single mum
and (successful) African asylum seeker boyfriend, both pushing 50,
she has been living in her council house for at least 30 years. Now they
are working hard as self-employed gardeners. They have bought her
council house with a 100% mortgage, interest only, paying more on interest than they ever paid in rent. I pointed out that they would need
to increase their payments by 50% to have a realistic chance of paying
off the mortgage in 20 years. Now they are talking of buying a second
house on a buy to let mortgage! I feel really sorry for them. I
pointed out that I bought my first house for ?45,000, and sold it
7 years later - for ?30,000. I hope they take the hint.
and (successful) African asylum seeker boyfriend, both pushing 50,
she has been living in her council house for at least 30 years. Now they
are working hard as self-employed gardeners. They have bought her
council house with a 100% mortgage, interest only, paying more on interest than they ever paid in rent. I pointed out that they would need
to increase their payments by 50% to have a realistic chance of paying
off the mortgage in 20 years. Now they are talking of buying a second
house on a buy to let mortgage! I feel really sorry for them. I
pointed out that I bought my first house for ?45,000, and sold it
7 years later - for ?30,000. I hope they take the hint.
Good post Vortex.
I know where you're coming from. Sometimes I see it clear in my mind; what life will be like. I've been there before on a personal level. I lived in the Lizard in Cornwall on benefits for two years during the last recession right in the middle of the last foray into Iraq. Cornwall was incredibly hard hit back then. The poorest county got poorer. There were no jobs, no money and little hope. Mass non payment of poll tax. However, the music was indeed fantastic, and in many ways it was the richest time of my life. I can easily believe those times will come round again.
Where I have problems is really believing in the breakdown of things like the electricity grid, national distribution of goods and petrol rationing. I've never lived through times like that. Sometimes I just can't belive it will happen, and other times it is incredibly real to me. A certainty, a given. I can't imagine starvation in England, but in theory it is a possibility.
I know where you're coming from. Sometimes I see it clear in my mind; what life will be like. I've been there before on a personal level. I lived in the Lizard in Cornwall on benefits for two years during the last recession right in the middle of the last foray into Iraq. Cornwall was incredibly hard hit back then. The poorest county got poorer. There were no jobs, no money and little hope. Mass non payment of poll tax. However, the music was indeed fantastic, and in many ways it was the richest time of my life. I can easily believe those times will come round again.
Where I have problems is really believing in the breakdown of things like the electricity grid, national distribution of goods and petrol rationing. I've never lived through times like that. Sometimes I just can't belive it will happen, and other times it is incredibly real to me. A certainty, a given. I can't imagine starvation in England, but in theory it is a possibility.
Having just come from the US, I have been exposed to profligate energy usage, both on the journey, and whilst there.To be honest Vortex, I find that you are bit of a Jekyll and Hyde! For this post, you appear to be in total denial.
Although I understand the Peak Oil numbers, the raw sensations of vibrant day-to-day life seem to make a mockery of the doomy stuff.
Also, when reading some posts - mainly on other fora - I have sudden fears that I have been sucked into a cult!
I suppose some of the inhabitants of Hiroshima on that final sunny day were organising a picnic for the kids ... when ...
I'll be like that on Day Zero! Surprised!
That's exactly what Ali Samsam Bakhtiari says - the next 3 years or so will be OK because all the wastage in the system will pay for dwindling resources.
After that it will get painful.
After that it will get painful.
Andy Hunt
http://greencottage.burysolarclub.net
http://greencottage.burysolarclub.net
Eternal Sunshine wrote: I wouldn't want to worry you with the truth.
Personally I imagine a sort of rollercoaster ride back to the 70s, as mentioned we carry a lot of slack in the system, society and economic structure is very complicated and full of so much waste, from packaging to pointless (for the average Joe) SUVs, flying, patio heater's, 24 7 365 shopping and many more.
Perhaps peak oil theory dose feel a bit like a cult when the impression is given of overnight grid collapse, however unlikely or otherwise that
sinario is.
I view peak oil as more of a wake up call against the fantasy of sustainable business as usual models, sadly so many people are so deep in the dream.
We have a chance for a power down and a better world but its a nettle that needs to be picked with care, leave it too late and grab it...sting ouch! all we can do is slow down enjoy life take all the possibilites on board and probably watch the world unravel... even without peak oil its got to be sensible to wish to stop rampant consumerism polluting and cutting down forests and so on, thats not cultist it's a no brainer....isnt it? or should I shave my head and wear only green wise one...om om om
Perhaps peak oil theory dose feel a bit like a cult when the impression is given of overnight grid collapse, however unlikely or otherwise that
sinario is.
I view peak oil as more of a wake up call against the fantasy of sustainable business as usual models, sadly so many people are so deep in the dream.
We have a chance for a power down and a better world but its a nettle that needs to be picked with care, leave it too late and grab it...sting ouch! all we can do is slow down enjoy life take all the possibilites on board and probably watch the world unravel... even without peak oil its got to be sensible to wish to stop rampant consumerism polluting and cutting down forests and so on, thats not cultist it's a no brainer....isnt it? or should I shave my head and wear only green wise one...om om om