New coronavirus in/from China

[stumuz1]

I suspect that the main reason mask wearing does work is that those that are wearing them also practice social distancing and hand disinfection as much as possible while wearing them. It is the combination of apparel and behavior that might make the difference.
That said you could not pay me enough to get me to ride on an urban bus or commuter train today nor will I go to a bar even if the government allows them to be wide open.
It is every man for himself.

Yup.

[Initiation]

I suspect that the main reason mask wearing does work is that those that are wearing them also practice social distancing and hand disinfection as much as possible while wearing them. It is the combination of apparel and behavior that might make the difference.

Anecdotally, in my experience, social distancing and handwashing has decreased as mask usage has gone up. Going into shops now, people are much happier to walk close to you and rarely do we have staff at the front handing out sanitiser to everyone. It would be interesting to see some proper studies here.

The problem I have with this is the actual real world evidence does not at all support this.

But logic would suggest they absorb aerosols and even if they are proven ineffective, do they actually cause harm? If worn properly and not as a panacea, then what harm can they do.

Perhaps it appears obvious, but I don't think logic should be driving an intrusive government policy without supporting evidence. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that mask making would make things worse as people abandon other measures and touch their faces more. The WHO actually name numerous downsides for mask usage including the following. This of course doesn't include the fact that evidence for them working is low (as acknowledged by the WHO in the document linked below).

•potential increased risk of self-contamination due to the manipulation of a face mask and subsequently touching eyes with contaminated hands;(48, 49)
•potential self-contamination that can occur if non-medical masks are not changed when wet or soiled. This can create favourable conditions for microorganism to amplify;
•potential headache and/or breathing difficulties, depending on type of mask used;
•potential development of facial skin lesions, irritant dermatitis or worsening acne, when used frequently for long hours;(50)
•difficulty with communicating clearly; •potential discomfort;(41, 51)
•a false sense of security, leading to potentially lower adherence to other critical preventive measures such as physical distancing and hand hygiene;
•poor compliance with mask wearing, in particular by young children

https://www.who.int/publications/i/item ... )-outbreak

If aerosols are significant AND masks stop them then why are countries like Spain (where they have very onerous mask rules) still seeing an increase in cases?

That's easy to answer, the Spanish are just coming out of their facist era state. They have lived with severe repression, so the populace is used to seeing civilian security guards with heavy truncheons beat non cooperative citizens. The spread is down to culture, oblique non compliance in private, and defiance of central control on a personal level.
The Spanish youth have never given up on their parties, or socialising in private.

The same for Italy, who have mandated masks outdoors for 3 weeks now? Or for Regions of France - Paris has had them since August. Both have seen rapid rises in positive tests.

Until earlier this year, the scientific concensus was that masks offer no protection for the general public.

I think it was contradictory, as per academic ego's

The Welsh CMO in March flip-flopped from masks provide no protection, to masks provide some protection, to advisory use on public transport, to compulsory use on public transport, to advisory use in indoor spaces, to compulsory use in indoor spaces.

Personally, I have used one whenever I have been in a shop since march.

That is fine, I fully support people's rights to wear one if they so wish, however I strongly believe they should not be mandatory due to the poor evidence supporting they have any beneficial effect and the hostility it has created towards those who are exempt.

[Mark]

Anecdotally, in my experience, social distancing and handwashing has decreased as mask usage has gone up. Going into shops now, people are much happier to walk close to you and rarely do we have staff at the front handing out sanitiser to everyone. It would be interesting to see some proper studies here.

+1 I normally shop at 'off peak' times, but went into my local Tesco on Saturday lunchtime. I was a bit shocked - totally packed out - no social distancing - little sanitising going on, but most people were wearing masks. This seems to be the only message they were hearing.... I'll be going back to my 'off peak' shopping...

[vtsnowedin]

I have not been to the supermarket for a couple of weeks but it has a sanitizer station in the cart corral where you can wipe down the handle of your cart and your hands before starting in. Masks are mandated by the state here at present and compliance is high. They set up one way isles but some elderly do not seem to get that concept so you are always meeting someone going the wrong way. I myself will go the wrong way down an empty isle but will retreat if a customer enters from the correct end. I can use the extra steps anyway.
Standing in line to vote is the biggest super spreader here with next Tuesday being a disaster waiting to happen on more then one front.

[adam2]

It should be simple to devise a safe way of voting.

Use an open sided marquee to keep the rain off but allow plentiful ventilation.
Give out the blank ballot papers at arms length.
Voter takes the ballot paper into one of several well spaced private booths where they mark the paper and fold it in half.

Voter then walks past the ballot box in drops the ballot into the box.

The process needs careful observation to prevent fraud, but this can be done from 10 feet away, and with CCTV as a second line of defence.

[vtsnowedin]

It should be simple to devise a safe way of voting.

Use an open sided marquee to keep the rain off but allow plentiful ventilation.
Give out the blank ballot papers at arms length.
Voter takes the ballot paper into one of several well spaced private booths where they mark the paper and fold it in half.

Voter then walks past the ballot box in drops the ballot into the box.

The process needs careful observation to prevent fraud, but this can be done from 10 feet away, and with CCTV as a second line of defence.

You should consider that next week is November and we have already had a snow fall. At the last election people were encouraged to vote absentee but two thirds showed up in person. The doors and some windows were kept open and all the ballot clerks sat behind plexiglass sneeze guards. The floor was marked with six foot Xs and face masks and hand sanitizer were at the first table in the foyer. The voters path was counter clockwise around the hall with the center roped off and each voting booth was sprayed with sanitizer and wiped down after each use and pens were used once then placed in a bucket for later disinfection. For next Tuesday the ballot clerks will be advised to wear clothing suitable for winter outside wear including boots hats and gloves. Drive up voting has been done earlier this year but it was not felt to be practical in November. So I think the Town clerk has made it about as safe as possible. Fortunately as the state sent ballots to all registered voters over a third of them have already been mailed in or placed in the drop box so we should have a very small in person turnout.

[Little John]

The problem I have with this is the actual real world evidence does not at all support this.

But logic would suggest they absorb aerosols and even if they are proven ineffective, do they actually cause harm? If worn properly and not as a panacea, then what harm can they do.

If aerosols are significant AND masks stop them then why are countries like Spain (where they have very onerous mask rules) still seeing an increase in cases?

That's easy to answer, the Spanish are just coming out of their facist era state. They have lived with severe repression, so the populace is used to seeing civilian security guards with heavy truncheons beat non cooperative citizens. The spread is down to culture, oblique non compliance in private, and defiance of central control on a personal level.
The Spanish youth have never given up on their parties, or socialising in private.

Until earlier this year, the scientific concensus was that masks offer no protection for the general public.

I think it was contradictory, as per academic ego's

The Welsh CMO in March flip-flopped from masks provide no protection, to masks provide some protection, to advisory use on public transport, to compulsory use on public transport, to advisory use in indoor spaces, to compulsory use in indoor spaces.

Personally, I have used one whenever I have been in a shop since march.

I have never worn one and have no intention of doing so.

[UndercoverElephant]

France goes into second full-blown national lockdown:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54716993

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a second national lockdown until at least the end of November.

Mr Macron said that under the new measures, starting on Friday, people would only be allowed to leave home for essential work or medical reasons.

And yet the schools will remain open. How does that work then?

[Little John]

Anyone still thinks this does not end in bloodshed?

We either have a ruling class that has gone insane. Or, we have a ruling class that has an agenda we do not know about.

But, no-one, who is not a moron, can think what is happening is either normal or proportionate.

[UndercoverElephant]

Anyone still thinks this does not end in bloodshed?

Anything you don't think will end in bloodshed?

No, this will end with widespread non-compliance, especially over Christmas. People are just going to stop following the rules, on a scale that can't be controlled.

[Little John]

Anyone still thinks this does not end in bloodshed?

Anything you don't think will end in bloodshed?

No, this will end with widespread non-compliance, especially over Christmas. People are just going to stop following the rules, on a scale that can't be controlled.

Is there anything in terms of the trajectory that the West is currently on that I think will not end in bloodshed?

Frankly, no.

Do I take it you think the authorities, having committed this far to whatever the hell this is, will simply crank their necks back in when people do not comply?

[vtsnowedin]

Perhaps in the UK where you are obedient subjects of the crown and without many firearms in your possession there will just be mass civil disobedience.
In the US we are already getting riots and looting with thirty policemen injured in one night and city with one female officer run over by a pickup truck breaking her leg plus other injuries.
Add in the expected election chaos and another round of lock downs and this might get very bloody indeed and then perhaps it will spread back to you.
I am glad I live a couple of hours drive from any urban center.

[Little John]

Meanwhile, in France:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

[BritDownUnder]

Negative daily deaths? Or an adjustment of figures?

The figure around May 21.

[BritDownUnder]

No more "Rock on Tommy" as Bobby Ball dies after Covid diagnosis.