New coronavirus in/from China

[adam2]

Posts have been edited, to remove personal insults. Differing views are fine, but calling individuals "morons" or "trolls" or "pathetic little man" or other insults will result in posts being edited to remove the insult, or being deleted.

[BritDownUnder]

I read in the news that authorities in Australia are testing sewage for Coronavirus. Amazing the sensitivity of the testing process. Due to the relatively low incidence of the virus here I presume most of the tests come negative but there is occasionally a mention on the news that traces of the virus have been detected in the sewage somewhere or other.

A colleague of mine recently transferred from Victoria state to Western Australia and was forced to wear a mask on the plane then had the change the mask before landing, then have a virus test at the airport and then be escorted in a sealed bus by police from the airport to a secure coronavirus hotel quarantine.

I think the hotel quarantine in China may involve you having to sew mailbags and bars on the windows.

On a somewhat related note, last year I worked on a project on a power station in South Australia named Quarantine power station, so named because it was at the location of an animal quarantine station near to Adelaide. I had to explain to quite a few people how in the olden days there were such quaint practices as quarantining to isolate ill people (and animals) carrying an infectious disease.

[Little John]

So what if it is being detected in sewerage? This is getting farcical. One may as well set about detecting the common cold virus in sewerage.

There is no spike in death or hospitalization accompanying the second spike in infections. Or, to the extent there is in some countries, that is only because the R0 was so suppressed in the first wave, it led to hardly any deaths in that first wave. Leading to the piper having to be paid later on, that is all. In other words, the pattern of relationship between deaths, hospitalizations and infections over time is broadly similar across all countries irrespective of differences of demographic, socioeconomic and medical provision.

We know that a very small portion of the population is in danger from this virus.

In some countries that small proportion was well protected during the first wave whilst simultaneously allowing the vast majority of the population to become infected, in turn providing the necessary herd immunity to protect that small vulnerable group. Meaning that in the second wave, there has been a much lower spike of infection and fewer deaths overall in such countries.

In other countries, no-one was particularly well protected, a significant portion of that small, vulnerable group succumbed to the virus. Meanwhile, the majority of the population became infected and recovered, leading to herd immunity. Which again has been followed by a second wave with much lower levels of death due to (a) herd immunity and (b) the fact you cannot die twice.

In yet other countries, like Austrialia for example, extremely draconian measures were taken during the first wave, meaning the people who were never in danger from this virus were stopped from contracting it alongside those who were in danger. Leading to a very low level of herd immunity. All of which produced a relatively low level of deaths in that first wave. But, they have merely paid for that in their second wave of infection which has had a relatively high death rate due to that lack of herd immunity they should have gained in the first wave. In other words, the same number of people have died as if they had done nothing. Those deaths have merely been smeared out differently over time, that is all.

So:

No protections at all leads to a significant, but limited number of deaths.

Complete restrictions on liberties leads to precisely the same significant but limited number of deaths, but smeared out differently over time. That is all.

An intelligent protection of highly identifiable vulnerable groups whilst actively leaving - indeed encouraging - the rest of the population to get infected and recover leads to the lowest number of deaths in the end. It's called herd immunity. If you want to see what that looks like, see Sweden for details, But, there are other countries that have taken the same approach. They are just not being reported on by the MSM. At all.

And, finally, there is the not insignificant fact that most of these deaths that have occurred have been of people who were statistically due to die sometime this year in any event. Don't believe me? Take a look a the TOTAL death rate for the UK for the last six years (see below):

https://www.ons.gov.uk/.../weeklyprovis ... uresondeat...

2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 (thus far) - 453,803

The death rate for 2020 (thus far) INCLUDES all Covid19 deaths

[BritDownUnder]

Speaking for myself only I have rather enjoyed the certain erosion of my liberties by working from home rather than being required by my employer to travel overseas at short notice. So much so that I am serious considering early retirement as I enjoy being at home doing the gardening so much.

The Australian authorities are somewhat accustomed to the testing of sewage for certain substances. I believe that some time ago a certain rural town was vilified for having the highest concentration of metabolites on the drug amphetamine in their sewage effluent.
More seriously, I think given the low incidence of the coronavirus in Australia at the moment and the mention of "asymptomatic" carriers of the virus I suppose the authorities are trying to keep track of this virus around the country as they are minded to want to keep track of other things like terrorists, paedophiles and the like. I presume if your house is linked to the sewage system and not on a septic system then a virus detected at a particular sewage plant can narrow its carrier down to a geographical area.

[UndercoverElephant]

The whole covid thing's a real shocker to put it mildly.

On radio scotland this morning, they had an 'expert' on recommending quarantine-hotels in Scotland. You'd go get a test, and if positive whisked away in a mini-bus for a compulsory, guarded quarantine 'holiday'.

It's not even wtf anymore.

The unbelievable has become normal, and that's .

Well, the authorities in Scotland are now talking about (basically) cancelling Christmas. The last time that was tried was by Cromwell in the 1650s, and he's never been forgiven for it.

[Catweazle]

There is no spike in death or hospitalization accompanying the second spike in infections.

Hospital admissions rising: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19- ... dmissions/

Or, to the extent there is in some countries, that is only because the R0 was so suppressed in the first wave, it led to hardly any deaths in that first wave.

And that's a bad thing ?

Leading to the piper having to be paid later on, that is all.

So, the people who are going to die from covid will die from it anyway ? Even if they never catch it ? Or if treatment is improved ? Or a vaccine developed ?

In some countries that small proportion was well protected during the first wave whilst simultaneously allowing the vast majority of the population to become infected, in turn providing the necessary herd immunity to protect that small vulnerable group. Meaning that in the second wave, there has been a much lower spike of infection and fewer deaths overall in such countries.

Have you thought up names for your imaginary countries ? I can't find any real country with an infection rate more than 22k per million, hardly a "vast majority", and that country (USA) also has the highest death rate.

In other countries, no-one was particularly well protected, a significant portion of that small, vulnerable group succumbed to the virus. Meanwhile, the majority of the population became infected and recovered, leading to herd immunity. Which again has been followed by a second wave with much lower levels of death due to (a) herd immunity and (b) the fact you cannot die twice.

Narnia ?

In yet other countries, like Austrialia for example, extremely draconian measures were taken during the first wave, meaning the people who were never in danger from this virus were stopped from contracting it alongside those who were in danger. Leading to a very low level of herd immunity. All of which produced a relatively low level of deaths in that first wave. But, they have merely paid for that in their second wave of infection which has had a relatively high death rate due to that lack of herd immunity they should have gained in the first wave.

Didn't you say there was no spike of hospitalisations or deaths in the second wave ?

In other words, the same number of people have died as if they had done nothing. Those deaths have merely been smeared out differently over time, that is all.

This might have been true, if hospital resources are infinite and no improvements are made to treatments.

Complete restrictions on liberties leads to precisely the same significant but limited number of deaths, but smeared out differently over time. That is all.

See reply above.

An intelligent protection of highly identifiable vulnerable groups whilst actively leaving - indeed encouraging - the rest of the population to get infected and recover leads to the lowest number of deaths in the end. It's called herd immunity.

Wrong again. A vaccine is the best approach, that's why we use them for all those nasty diseases instead of just infecting everybody with them.

And, finally, there is the not insignificant fact that most of these deaths that have occurred have been of people who were statistically due to die sometime this year in any event.

I've already pointed out this error twice, you haven't responded.

[kenneal - lagger]

................I've just noticed I've been edited by someone else! Not just by myself which I've done, but by another person! Nothing major or anything but a tad cheeky.

I occasionally edit a post to make it more readable by putting "quote" brackets in the right place without acknowledgement but if I remove content of any sort I note it in the post or if I delete a post I post to say that I have.

[kenneal - lagger]

LJ, you seen to ignore the fact that the health service was nearly overwhelmed in the first wave, some say because the government didn't enact a lock down soon enough, and the lock down was required to stop it being completely overwhelmed.

[Little John]

Meanwhile, in the actual real f***ing world

THE OLD PEOPLE CULL GOES ON - TAKEN FROM A POST ON THE DR VERNON COLEMAN GROUP.

I work in an elderly care home, and most of the 25 residents were vaccinated on Tuesday. In the past 48 hours since they were given the flu jab, 2 have died, 1 appears to be dying and is in a critical condition, and 7 others are visibly different, affected, and now very poorly.
The care home manager informed me they have increased the dosage and potency for the elderly vaccines, and that she can see its obvious that this is a culling agenda.
I am so angry, frustrated, and don't know if I can continue doing this work anymore.

[Catweazle]

Meanwhile, in the actual real f***ing world

THE OLD PEOPLE CULL GOES ON - TAKEN FROM A POST ON THE DR VERNON COLEMAN GROUP.

I work in an elderly care home, and most of the 25 residents were vaccinated on Tuesday. In the past 48 hours since they were given the flu jab, 2 have died, 1 appears to be dying and is in a critical condition, and 7 others are visibly different, affected, and now very poorly.
The care home manager informed me they have increased the dosage and potency for the elderly vaccines, and that she can see its obvious that this is a culling agenda.
I am so angry, frustrated, and don't know if I can continue doing this work anymore.

A culling agenda ? I don't know what to write.

[Little John]

They can spend billions of quid on a failed track and trace, and installing facial recognition cameras to track you but they won't give kids anything to eat

Because they care about your health.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/22/tory-mp- ... p.facebook

Tory MP resigns from government in protest over free school meals

Author Faye Brown - Thursday 22 Oct 2020 1:17 pm

A Tory MP has quit her junior government role after rebelling to support extending free school meals over the winter holidays. Caroline Ansell was one of five Conservatives to back Labour’s motion following a campaign led by England and Manchester United footballer Marcus Rashford. It was heavily defeated in the House of Commons last night, by 322 votes to 261. Ms Ansell said she ‘could not in all conscience ignore’ her belief the policy would benefit families struggling during the pandemic and resigned as a parliamentary private secretary to the environment minister.

In a statement the Eastbourne MP said: ‘In these unprecedented times, I am very concerned to be doing all we can to help lower-income families and their children who are really struggling due to the impact of the virus. ‘Therefore, last night, I voted for Labour’s motion on extending free school meal vouchers until after Easter 2021 for those families in receipt of Universal Credit or an equivalent benefit.’ She went on to say that food vouchers were ‘not perfect’ and argued that it is better to link meals to activities so children ‘can also benefit from extra-curricular learning and experience’.

Marcus Rashford has been leading the campaign to extend the provision of free school meals. But she said it would be a short-term solution to help families in her constituency and beyond who are still reeling from the impact of the coronavirus crisis. She said: ‘As we are still very much living in the shadow of the pandemic, vouchers are a lever – not perfect, not sustainable – but one which I thought could be used to reach families in Eastbourne and across the country in the immediate time ahead. I could not in all conscience ignore that belief.’ Her resignation from the frontbench comes amid backlash over a leaked memo, allegedly from government figures, asking Conservative MPs to make ‘suggested interventions’ in the Marcus Rashford school meals debate, including shifting the blame to Labour. The statement said MPs should bring up the opposition party’s refusal to extend a similar scheme when it was in power over a decade ago.

Defending the text, policing minister Kit Malthouse said it was ‘standard practice’ for political parties to issue guidelines to its MPs and dismissed claims his party was ‘ganging-up’ on Rashford. The 22-year-old has been at the forefront of the campaign to extend free school meals this year and successfully forced the Government into a U-turn in summer. Wednesday’s vote was triggered after a petition he set up amassed over 300,000 signatures in a matter of days. Mr Malthouse insisted the Government was helping low-income families through the welfare system. Another MP who opposed the motion, Brendan Clarke-Smith, said he ‘did not believe in nationalising children’. ‘Where is the slick PR campaign encouraging absent parents to take some responsibility for their children?,’ he said, adding, ‘we need to get back to the idea of taking responsibility’.

Following the result, Rashford, who became an MBE this month, vowed not to give up fighting for hungry children. Marcus Rashford Picture: Marcus Rashford An excerpt from Rashford’s statement vowing not to give up on his campaign. He wrote in a statement on Twitter: ‘Put aside all the noise, the digs, the party politics and let’s focus on the reality. ‘A significant number of children are going to bed tonight not only hungry but feeling like they do not matter because of comments that have been made today.’ ‘We must stop stigmatising, judging and pointing fingers. Our views are being clouded by political affiliation. This is not politics, this is humanity.’ He urged politicians to ‘unite’ and said it is ‘time we worked together’ because child food poverty ‘has the potential to become the greatest pandemic the country has ever faced’. The England forward, who has spoken of his own experiences growing up in poverty in Wythenshawe, Greater Manchester, added: ‘I don’t have the education of a politician. ‘Many on Twitter have made that clear today but I have a social education having lived through this and having spent time with the families and children most affected. These children matter.’

[clv101]

Meanwhile, in the actual real f***ing world

THE OLD PEOPLE CULL GOES ON - TAKEN FROM A POST ON THE DR VERNON COLEMAN GROUP.

I work in an elderly care home, and most of the 25 residents were vaccinated on Tuesday. In the past 48 hours since they were given the flu jab, 2 have died, 1 appears to be dying and is in a critical condition, and 7 others are visibly different, affected, and now very poorly.
The care home manager informed me they have increased the dosage and potency for the elderly vaccines, and that she can see its obvious that this is a culling agenda.
I am so angry, frustrated, and don't know if I can continue doing this work anymore.

A culling agenda ? I don't know what to write.

Vernon Coleman is a complete fruitcake. He's been spouting conspiracy nonsense for years. His followers? I'd worry about their judbement. I've watched several of his YouTube monologues on covid, nonsense.

What to write? There's nothing that can be said, Coleman et al are far beyond reasonable debate.

Does LJ actually believe there is a 'cullling agenda', injecting the elderly with drugs that kill them in days? Yeah, he probably does, he's that far down the rabbit hole!

[kenneal - lagger]

...........and installing facial recognition cameras to track you................

This from the man who is against the wearing of face masks!

[fuzzy]

Meanwhile, in the actual real f***ing world

THE OLD PEOPLE CULL GOES ON - TAKEN FROM A POST ON THE DR VERNON COLEMAN GROUP.

I work in an elderly care home, and most of the 25 residents were vaccinated on Tuesday. In the past 48 hours since they were given the flu jab, 2 have died, 1 appears to be dying and is in a critical condition, and 7 others are visibly different, affected, and now very poorly.
The care home manager informed me they have increased the dosage and potency for the elderly vaccines, and that she can see its obvious that this is a culling agenda.
I am so angry, frustrated, and don't know if I can continue doing this work anymore.

I am pleased I didn't get it this year despite the nagging of the KPI driven folk in my GP practice.

[kenneal - lagger]

Both my wife and I have had the flu jab and we are both OK and I haven't heard of any of my friends, many of whom are over 60, being sick after having the jab.