New coronavirus in/from China

[vtsnowedin]

Herd immunity is a natural phenomenon and out of the control of the politicians, the medical community, or the deep state. And as it is it gives us a high death rate that continues. And while only a fraction of infected people will get seriously ill or die the number that does get sick and die is high enough to disrupt economies and perhaps unseat governments.
The Vaccine when it becomes available and known to be reasonably safe will become a tool to reduce those death numbers and allow the economy to reopen.
The majority will want to get past Covid-19 and get on with their lives and will look at you as a detriment to their progress.

Firstly, herd immunity may be outside the control of government in terms of it's final destination. But, is not outside of its control in the speed of getting there.

Secondly, in what way, precisely, will people like me be a "detriment" to the "progress" of others? If the vaccine works... right?


Finally herd immunity in the context of Covid19 it does not give you a high death rate. Again, that is not true. Or, at least, I should say, in every country I have looked at the data (I have not specifically looked at the USA's). But, I am prepared to stand corrected. Do know the specific numbers involved for the USA?

For example:

How many people die in your country per year, on average, of all illnesses combined? I am including the illnesses associated with old age in that question.

How many people have died in your country this year of the above causes, including covid19 deaths?

How many people have died in your country, specifically, of Covid19 deaths this year?

After taking Covid deaths in your country out of the numbers for this year, how many people are left? Does that number match previous years? Or, is it significantly lower? If it is lower, do you know why?

I am just seeing your response now so pardon the time laps. Anti vaccers like yourself will be a detriment to society in that they will provide a pool of human hosts for the virus and keep it in circulation and more widespread then it would be otherwise. Members that do get sick with symptoms will cause an unnecessary drain on your healthcare system which is already hard pressed. Herd immunity if achieved and that is a pretty big if will have a lower death rate but I was referring to the present high death rate which will continue until herd immunity is achieved. Preliminary estimates for the US without lockdowns was for over 2,000,000 deaths in a year. We are currently at 202,827. The US now ranks 10th in deaths per 100,000,000 while the UK ranks 11th. (626/M vs 616/M).
With 7 million cases out of a population of 331 million we are a long long way from herd immunity.
There were 2.8 million deaths from all causes in the US in 2017 or 7708 per day. It is too early to determine the number of excess deaths from covid as many of it's victims were near the end of their life to begin with.
For example of Vermont's 58 deaths 25 were 80 years old or older.

[Little John]

Herd immunity is a natural phenomenon and out of the control of the politicians, the medical community, or the deep state. And as it is it gives us a high death rate that continues. And while only a fraction of infected people will get seriously ill or die the number that does get sick and die is high enough to disrupt economies and perhaps unseat governments.
The Vaccine when it becomes available and known to be reasonably safe will become a tool to reduce those death numbers and allow the economy to reopen.
The majority will want to get past Covid-19 and get on with their lives and will look at you as a detriment to their progress.

Firstly, herd immunity may be outside the control of government in terms of it's final destination. But, is not outside of its control in the speed of getting there.

Secondly, in what way, precisely, will people like me be a "detriment" to the "progress" of others? If the vaccine works... right?


Finally herd immunity in the context of Covid19 it does not give you a high death rate. Again, that is not true. Or, at least, I should say, in every country I have looked at the data (I have not specifically looked at the USA's). But, I am prepared to stand corrected. Do know the specific numbers involved for the USA?

For example:

How many people die in your country per year, on average, of all illnesses combined? I am including the illnesses associated with old age in that question.

How many people have died in your country this year of the above causes, including covid19 deaths?

How many people have died in your country, specifically, of Covid19 deaths this year?

After taking Covid deaths in your country out of the numbers for this year, how many people are left? Does that number match previous years? Or, is it significantly lower? If it is lower, do you know why?

I am just seeing your response now so pardon the time laps. Anti vaccers like yourself will be a detriment to society in that they will provide a pool of human hosts for the virus and keep it in circulation and more widespread then it would be otherwise. Members that do get sick with symptoms will cause an unnecessary drain on your healthcare system which is already hard pressed. Herd immunity if achieved and that is a pretty big if will have a lower death rate but I was referring to the present high death rate which will continue until herd immunity is achieved. Preliminary estimates for the US without lockdowns was for over 2,000,000 deaths in a year. We are currently at 202,827. The US now ranks 10th in deaths per 100,000,000 while the UK ranks 11th. (626/M vs 616/M).
With 7 million cases out of a population of 331 million we are a long long way from herd immunity.
There were 2.8 million deaths from all causes in the US in 2017 or 7708 per day. It is too early to determine the number of excess deaths from covid as many of it's victims were near the end of their life to begin with.
For example of Vermont's 58 deaths 25 were 80 years old or older.

I am not an "anti vaccer".

I am anti coerced vaccination.

Also, it's not "too early" to determine the number of "excess deaths". The death numbers of previous years are on the record. The number and nature of deaths for this year are recorded as they go and are on the record. The extent to which they are "not available" is entirely a function of a policy choice by someone somewhere for reasons unknown.

Finally, with regard to your point about people who are not vaccinated being a "drain" on healthcare systems - that is easy to resolve. Anyone who chooses to not vaccinate will not receive treatment for covid19. For the tiny minority of people who fall into the "vulnerable" category, this is unlikely to be an issue since they are likely to be willingly the first in the queue for a vaccine. Meanwhile, for the vast majority of the rest of the population, it is guaranteed to be a non issue since the vast majority of the rest of the population experience little to no symptoms and fully recover unproblematically.

You are not a stupid man V. Use your brain. This is all bullshit.

[vtsnowedin]

While you can get month to month and even day to day death statistics as soon as the death certificates are filed you cannot tell if an elderly person that died of Covid in February would have died this year or survived to be in next years statistics or some other later year. Looking at the raw data right now will most certainly show an number of "Excess deaths" for this month or year to date but much of that might even out over the next year or so as you can only die once.
No they cannot in the real world deny healthcare to those that refuse to be coerced into taking a vaccine. Easy to say but impossible to actually do.
Worldwide one out of thirty cases of covid end in death. The US number is one in 34 and that is all cases revealed by tests not just those that were sick enough to be hospitalized. That is not a small or tiny number.
We all should all be able to take the vaccine or not using our own judgement but those of us who choose not to take it should except that we will not be allowed to fly or even ride trains or other public transport or attend a school or university.

[Little John]

While you can get month to month and even day to day death statistics as soon as the death certificates are filed you cannot tell if an elderly person that died of Covid in February would have died this year or survived to be in next years statistics or some other later year.

At the population level of analysis, yes you can precisely tell that.

Looking at the raw data right now will most certainly show an number of "Excess deaths" for this month or year to date but much of that might even out over the next year or so as you can only die once.

Well, precisely

No they cannot in the real world deny healthcare to those that refuse to be coerced into taking a vaccine.

Now you are just having laugh... right V?...

Your country regularly denies large swathes of people life saving treatment merely on the back of empty pockets.

Worldwide one out of thirty cases of Covid end in death.

Got a link for that number?

The US number is one in 34 and that is all cases revealed by tests not just those that were sick enough to be hospitalized. That is not a small or tiny number.

Got a link for that number?

[Little John]

From a friend of mine on social media.

Says it all really

Asian Flu - 1957. 1 million died.
Population adjusted, equivalent today would be 2.7 million.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/.../1957%E2%80%931958...

Hong Kong Flu - 1968. 1 to 4 million died.
Population adjusted, equivalent today would be 2.19 to 8.78 million.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu

Spanish Flu - 1918 to 1920. 17 to 50 million died. Some estimates 50 to 100 million.
Population adjusted, equivalent today would be 73 to 433 million.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

World population by year....
https://www.worldometers.info/.../world ... n-by-year/

Economies never shutdown in 1957 or 1968, both times it was considered a public health issue and not of that high an importance, not a panic.
Lockdowns in 1918 actually made the problem far worse, with the second wave, a far more virulent mutated strain for which no herd immunity had been achieved during the first wave of the less virulent strain. The second wave is what we all know as the Spanish Flu.

At this moment, the death toll is 980,000, after around 12 months of this being around. Which is questionable, at least in the UK because "Deaths from ANY cause within 28 days of a positive test" with Oxford University estimating close to a third of the total reported so far didn't die OF the bug. Let's also remember the tests are 7% accurate according to Dominic Raab. Stephen Cook, you posted a report by a biomedical diagnostics specialist who estimated a 90% false positive rate, PCR test not being suitable for community testing.

Fauci and Redfield...
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejme2002387
"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2"

Swedish infection fatality rate data by age group and co-morbidity...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... PwVJKaOUfr

Survival rate for 0-18 years old is 99.99996%. Doesn't get far worse until retirement age. Perhaps retired people isolate at home and leave the rest to crack on? Hardly a long mental journey.

So, this time round, World economy being collapsed because of... what exactly?

Let's start looking at the fallout.

First, the most vulnerable, a pandemic of starvation with Spanish Flu'esque numbers...
https://english.alarabiya.net/.../Coron ... orld-faces...

And then the obvious...

mass unemployment:
mass bankruptcies, collapse of whole industries;
supply chains collapsed, likely for many years;
mass evictions, epidemic of homelessness;
lack of educational opportunities;
lack of career opportunities any time soon for the young already crushed with "Uni" debt (a policy to push kids into debt rather than higher education);
widespread hunger, chronic health problems because of poor diet, big increase in the consumption of high glycemic index starch because it's cheap, poor micronutrient intake;
child development, serious consequences for the long term;
lack of medical care and diagnosis for other life threatening diseases (this is likely what's causing most of the excess death rate);
drug addition, alcoholism;
domestic abuse, violence, crime, widepsread civil disorder;
physical and mental health decline, widespread misery.. suicide.
You know, like collapse of civilisation sort of thing. Stats readily available. Be in no doubt, this is dire. Double down on it. Doubly dire.

What's really going on?

Answers on a postcard.

[vtsnowedin]

While you can get month to month and even day to day death statistics as soon as the death certificates are filed you cannot tell if an elderly person that died of Covid in February would have died this year or survived to be in next years statistics or some other later year.

At the population level of analysis, yes you can precisely tell that.

BS.

Looking at the raw data right now will most certainly show an number of "Excess deaths" for this month or year to date but much of that might even out over the next year or so as you can only die once.

Well, precisely

No they cannot in the real world deny healthcare to those that refuse to be coerced into taking a vaccine.

Now you are just having laugh... right V?... [/quote]
You are very mistaken about what happens to a poor uninsured person that shows up at a hospital in America. They do get treatment, and might be billed to the point of bankruptcy but the hospitals do have to try to collect that and if they did not achieve your recovery they have a hard time getting blood out of a dead turnip.

Your country regularly denies large swathes of people life saving treatment merely on the back of empty pockets.

BS

Worldwide one out of thirty cases of Covid end in death.

Got a link for that number?[/quote]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The US number is one in 34 and that is all cases revealed by tests not just those that were sick enough to be hospitalized. That is not a small or tiny number.

Got a link for that number?[/quote] see above.

[kenneal - lagger]

From a friend of mine on social media.

Says it all really

Asian Flu - 1957. 1 million died.
Population adjusted, equivalent today would be 2.7 million.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/.../1957%E2%80%931958...

Hong Kong Flu - 1968. 1 to 4 million died.
Population adjusted, equivalent today would be 2.19 to 8.78 million.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu

Spanish Flu - 1918 to 1920. 17 to 50 million died. Some estimates 50 to 100 million.
Population adjusted, equivalent today would be 73 to 433 million.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

.......................

But we're only six months into the first wave of what could be a two to three year outbreak given the level of precautions being taken to slow the spread of the disease so the number of deaths could go up quite a bit. Also the previous quoted outbreaks didn't see the shutdowns which we have seen so far. If we hadn't had the shutdowns the death rate would have been much higher as health services were overwhelmed worldwide. Treatments for disease in general have also improved since those previous pandemics and the medical profession are learning what works with covid quite rapidly so the death rate will be less provided health services aren't overwhelmed.

[vtsnowedin]

The Governor of Florida yesterday removed the last state government restrictions on businesses in Florida. Chief among them was a rule limiting restaurant capacity to 50%. Now businesses and their customers are free to use their own judgement about what precautions to take.
County and city governments still can keep some restrictions in place but they are barred from closing down a business or requiring less then 50% capacity.
This is a pretty bold move in contrasts to actions ongoing in other states and around the world.
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politic ... story.html

[kenneal - lagger]

.........
This is a pretty bold move in contrasts to actions ongoing in other states and around the world. ...........l

Especially in view of the large numbers of elderly residents. It could result in large scale depopulation.

[vtsnowedin]

.........
This is a pretty bold move in contrasts to actions ongoing in other states and around the world. ...........l

Especially in view of the large numbers of elderly residents. It could result in large scale depopulation.

Those elderly residents are free to be as cautious as they wish.
Only those unwilling or unable to think for themselves are at risk and government edicts weren't working all that well with them to begin with. Fortunately the young and dumb group tends to be healthier and at low risk.
The biggest worry is poor to lower working class living in congested cities that have to go to work to survive.

[stumuz1]

The biggest worry is poor to lower working class living in congested cities that have to go to work to survive.

You've pretty much nailed it there, VT.

[Little John]

The biggest worry is poor to lower working class living in congested cities that have to go to work to survive.

You've pretty much nailed it there, VT.

I can guarantee that faced with a choice of total economic ruin and the street for a bed or keeping their jobs with the tiny (for most) to extremely serious (for a small minority) risk from a virus, they will choose to keep their jobs.

[Catweazle]

LJ, several times you have quoted the statistics of how many millions died in previous flu pandemics. Has it not occurred to you that these millions died because there was no lockdown ?

[Little John]

LJ, several times you have quoted the statistics of how many millions died in previous flu pandemics. Has it not occurred to you that these millions died because there was no lockdown ?

the 1918 death toll was due to the initial lock-down to the first wave, leaving the vast majority of people in Europe without any immunity, either partial or whole, to the second, far more virulent strain that came in the winter. The only place in Europe spared a high death toll in the second wave was Copenhagen.

Wanna guess why?

[Initiation]

Has it not occurred to you that these millions died because there was no lockdown ?

Please explain logically how a lockdown 100 years ago would have helped save millions of lives?

Medical care was rudimentary, there was no vaccine or other treatments 'on the horizon'. Lockdown would not have helped with elimination as testing was not available to pick up those cases that were circulating.

All lockdown does is spread out the disease (flatten the curve, remember that?). If you are at critical risk of overloading health care services then it can be a short term solution, but when you have an average of less than 1.5 covid patients per hospital (as is currently the case for the UK), it is largely pointless.