Moderator: Peak Moderation
What does "China's locked down has worked" mean?Epidemiologists and modellers were trying to figure out what was likely to happen, said Leung. “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,� he said.
Experts also need to know whether the restrictions in the centre of Wuhan and other cities have reduced infections. “Have these massive public health interventions, social distancing, and mobility restrictions worked in China?� he asked. “If so, how can we roll them out, or is it not possible?�
What is coronavirus and how worried should we be?
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There would be difficulties. “Let’s assume that they have worked. But how long can you close schools for? How long can you lock down an entire city for? How long can you keep people away from shopping malls? And if you remove those [restrictions], then is it all going to come right back and rage again? So those are very real questions,� he said.
If China’s lockdown has not worked, there is another unpalatable truth to face: that the coronavirus might not be possible to contain. Then the world will have to switch tracks: instead of trying to contain the virus, it will have to work to mitigate its effects.
I doubt any of that will happen. You may lose some key people but many have replacements waiting in the wings so few companies will go bankrupt from the loss of a few personnel. Also most loans are insured against the death of the borrower so while insurance companies will take a temporary hit it will be business as usual. The funeral industry will have a good year though.UndercoverElephant wrote:
This is going to break the monetary system, isn't it? It is going to collapse the world economy and the fiat money system which will be hit by a tsunami of bankruptcies and defaults.
The impact isn't a few people dying!vtsnowedin wrote:You may lose some key people but many have replacements waiting in the wings so few companies will go bankrupt from the loss of a few personnel.
Exactly. "Recession" isn't the word. This is turbo-charged degrowth. And it is at a time when the global economy (and monetary system) has not properly recovered from 2008.clv101 wrote:The impact isn't a few people dying!vtsnowedin wrote:You may lose some key people but many have replacements waiting in the wings so few companies will go bankrupt from the loss of a few personnel.
It's the economy, it's mines in South America losing customers, the New Zealand loggers, oil price collapse, the US tourist industry losing visitors, the Asian (and others?) car factories closing due to broken supply chains, IT shortages... Not to mention the Chinese local economy, all the small businesses, the missed rent and mortgage payments.
We have a pretty good idea.fuzzy wrote:We have no idea why there are almost no deaths outside of china.
Need to consider the time it takes to die. If the mortality rate is 1% and 1000 people have already died, then we'd expect to also see 100,000 *recovered* cases, not 100,000 cases in total. Most of the current cases have yet to either die or recover - because it takes weeks, the better the care, the longer it takes to die.adam2 wrote:And even if the mortality rate in china IS only 1%, then 1000 fatalities suggests about 100,000 cases, an arguably believable figure.
If as has been suggested, the mortality rate in china is nearer 10%, then that suggests about 10,000 cases.
You have no idea what the assembled people here think, because you've only just arrived. Welcome to the forum, but please don't make assumptions about what people believe.Vitriol wrote:It is possible to adapt. Why assume the worst.... Oh yeah because assembled people here have been waiting for imminent collapse for the last 15+ years!
The problem here is that these deaths aren't all being recorded as caused by the virus. Some are recorded as "viral pneumonia" instead, and not included in the total figures. The Chinese are doing everything possible to turn the statistics into pure fiction.adam2 wrote: If someone dies without any relatives or witnesses, then that might be covered up, but most of the dead will have relatives or witnesses, therefore the state has to admit to most of the deaths.
Distressed oil supplies are being offered to India as the spread of the coronavirus crimps fuel consumption across China, prompting requests for cargo deferrals and cancellations by Asia’s no. 1 importer.
