DNV-Peak oil within 3 years.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 04 Dec 2019, 23:02

Catweazle wrote:I see your point, and yes, there are people who enjoy the idea of society crashing and burning.

Indeed, and I've got no objections to them being peak oilers.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 07 Dec 2019, 19:14

Peak oil and climate change are just two aspects of the Limits to Growth scenario along with income inequality, debt, resource depletion and pollution. They all interact in unexpected ways and unless addressed will cause the Doom RGR talks about. Whether it comes sooner or later will depend on whether or not the Kleptocracy choose to risk their wealth by doing something about it. So far they have chosen to do as little as possible so that Doom comes a little closer and is more certain.

In the past no civilization has lasted more than a few centuries and ours looks unlikely to buck the trend. This time, though, our world wide civilization doesn't have any where else to go to start again without developing a completely new set of technologies. There will be plenty of iron and steel knocking around on the surface but the coal and oil which took over from wood won't be available to replace wood as the next step up the technological ladder as we have depleted the resource so much.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 09 Dec 2019, 02:05

kenneal - lagger wrote:Peak oil and climate change are just two aspects of the Limits to Growth scenario along with income inequality, debt, resource depletion and pollution.

Limits to Growth was a computer program, not a scenario. Using the LTG model, scenarios were run.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 09 Dec 2019, 18:17

Catweazle wrote: Climate change, new research on the harm done by pollution from vehicles, improvements in solar tech, awareness of ocean plastics - these are all reducing oil use, and the goal posts have moved.

I have yet to see any decline in oil production or consumption.

Now, anyone who is looking to provide a comfortable future for grandchildren needs to consider climate change - the next "doom" if you like.

Yes quite; My daughter and granddaughter live in a house four feet above sea level with a dock in the back yard. That house has already had the living floor raised four feet after storm and flood damage some twenty years ago. It is funny to look into the crawlspace and see the finished tile floors in what used to be the kitchen. Whatever happens they will adapt and they will overcome.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 10 Dec 2019, 05:09

vtsnowedin wrote:
Catweazle wrote: Climate change, new research on the harm done by pollution from vehicles, improvements in solar tech, awareness of ocean plastics - these are all reducing oil use, and the goal posts have moved.
I have yet to see any decline in oil production or consumption.

CSIS began discussing unexpected decelerating global demand about 6 months ago.

kenneal · Post by **kenneal** » 10 Dec 2019, 08:48

vtsnowedin wrote:
Catweazle wrote: Climate change, new research on the harm done by pollution from vehicles, improvements in solar tech, awareness of ocean plastics - these are all reducing oil use, and the goal posts have moved.
I have yet to see any decline in oil production or consumption.
Now, anyone who is looking to provide a comfortable future for grandchildren needs to consider climate change - the next "doom" if you like.
Yes quite; My daughter and granddaughter live in a house four feet above sea level with a dock in the back yard. That house has already had the living floor raised four feet after storm and flood damage some twenty years ago. It is funny to look into the crawlspace and see the finished tile floors in what used to be the kitchen. Whatever happens they will adapt and they will overcome.

Depends how high you are prepared to live, I suppose, and how far out to sea.